NJwx85

54 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

as for the rivers in New Jersey perhaps it’s time to start thinking like they did on Staten Island after Sandy.

 

Maybe it’s time to move people away from those rivers.

 

Obviously, we’re in a new climate regime now with this kind of thing is going to be happening frequently and it’s not right to keep people in harms way. Especially when harm seems to come every few weeks now.

After Irene FEMA finally came in and moved people out of the hardest hit areas. It's not as easy as it sounds. People are stubborn and don't want to leave. It's not just homes that are hit hard. The Pompton and Passaic rivers both impact highways and businesses. Rt 23 is now shutdown in both directions in Pequannock Township. If you're not familiar with the area you wouldn't know but this is the major artery that connects Rt 80/46 with I-287 and points North and West.

My snowpack is also completely gone with the exception of a few small piles. It was still mostly intact as of 6PM last night.

3 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I just drove west from tappan to montvale, the difference in a couple miles is kind of staggering. Tappan still had flooding issues, debris everywhere, flooded houses in sparkill and tappan. Montvale there arent branches down.

I think the wind had an easier time in areas closest to the river. So that explains why Nyack, Tappan had more damage than areas even a few miles further West.

06z globals pretty locked in on another 1-2" areawide, however it looks like SNE might take the brunt of it instead of us.

8 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Reading this and other reports is just amazing as here in New City I went outside a few times and although it was raining ridiculously hard the wind did not seem to not be an issue here at all and you are very close to me 

6 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I believe new city fh or the town garage registered 23 mph and 2 miles southeast hit 46 lol

I'm in Bardonia just off 304 and the wind here wasn't crazy. The power flickered around 10:30 but that was it. I feel the wind was stronger in the December storm. The rain performed as forecasted. My hometown of Pompton Plains is completely flooded this morning.

This is going to clear Western areas by midnight.

It’s moving fast. Back edge has cleared DC already.

25 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I’m down in Orlando this evening and the storm went through rather quickly as it’s thin here.

 

But we did go wild with tornado warnings about an hour ago. 

 

Good luck up there tonight!

Do you fly for JetBlue?

Heavy rain is building in VA. That’s coming up here next 6-10 hours.  Numerous FFW now.

Just now, lee59 said:

I would never call that a bust. I am basing that on the fact that there are obstacles that slow wind speeds down as you move inland, especially at 33 feet, the height of my anemometer. The 50mph is only what I would expect, not necessarily what will ultimately happen.

It would be a bust for the rest of the area. I am expecting stronger winds than that and I am well inland.

4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I agree the whole island should have extreme winds. The south shore beaches have nothing to slow that wind down and I believe they will get it the worst. The most power outages may actually be on the north shore, many more trees there.

Okay but you said max gust for your area would be 50mph with sustained in the 20's. If that verified the whole storm would be a bust.

Just now, lee59 said:

Yea I did see that. My expectations are gusts in the 50s and 60s at airports and possibly 70 or higher at the beach.

Okay I'm not sure there's going to be a difference. The whole island is expected to get blasted, not just the South facing shore.

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Are those accurate? Keep hearing that these models tend to overdo wind.

Yes probably overdone, but the signal is there. This is going to be an anomalous wind event.

2 minutes ago, lee59 said:

I have little to interfere with the anemometer at my house, when the wind comes from the east and southeast. It is 33 ft. high. I am expecting sustained in the 20s and gust to about 50mph.

From your own point and click forecast.

18z 3k NAM showing peak sustained winds in the 40MPH winds as far West as Northeast NJ and the Hudson Valley. 50-60mph for the South shore of LI. That's sustained winds, not gusts.

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Tornado watches from FL to VA

Already 11 tornado reports today, most in Florida. Disney is going to get rocked in a few hours.

6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

My wife told me to stop with the doom and gloom. She thinks everything she's seen about this is totally overblown. She said 'they're always wrong about the wind'. Then a little later she asked if we have gas for the generator . 

Most of the time we have a strong inversion here which prevents the winds from mixing down. That's what sets this even aside from others. 

We had a really intense wind event in late March of 2010 which was a rain storm but the 500mb low passed South and East of us. This is a much different setup synoptically so not much of a comparison but I think impacts could be similar. We had such a snowy February that year that there was still some snowpack in the hills and it was the beginning of a very active pattern for flooding that really didn't stop until 2013.

Just now, TriPol said:

I just don't understand where alll this rain is going to go go to. We've had 2-4 inch rainstorms almost every week since September. I cannot imagine getting yet another storm like this. Yes, the winds are going to be bad and there will be Hurricane Gloria level power outages on LI, but I'm extremely concerned about the flooding potential with this, especially since it's going to melt all of the snowfall from the past week. I just don't understand how this isn't a bigger story.

The NWS has flood watches, wind advisories and high wind warnings over the entire region. They have come out with very strong wording. Not sure what much else can be done.

There were some mets on twitter yesterday downplaying the wind threat. Sending mixed messages even though you might disagree with the NWS is not great in my opinion and partially why the general public has become numb to warnings.

Just now, jm1220 said:

Yep, really dynamic system coming. And very high PWAT/dew point air is coming in and as mentioned not much of an inversion. I’d be ready not to have power. With the pace of these storms there won’t be much of a beach left soon. 

They have a lot of tornado damage in the Panhandle this morning.

4 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

No real inversion right?

No. I'm not a met and far from an expert with these things but looks well mixed.

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Gfs says we are gusting to 50 by 5pm and gust up to 70 by 10pm

The soundings are worrisome. 

8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Go with whatever you want. You seem to think there’s a competing forecast. This is from the national weather service.

There is an inversion but it's very close to the surface. Otherwise winds are Southerly so little shear. Any wind shear would be at the lowest levels, from 925mb down. I don't believe this would have a tremendous impact on aviation, however you're the pilot so I would differ to you. I would think the risk of downdrafts would be higher than normal. In any event visibility will be poor in heavy convection from 00z to 09z.

High res models, HRDPS, 3k NAM, FV3, ARW models indicating heaviest axis of rain over I-95 and points just to the North and West (2-4"+) with less amounts of 1-2" for the city South and East where the strongest winds will be.

I know it has been mentioned before, good storm threat a week from today. Probably the best chance of snow for the coast that we have seen in over a year.

Lots of severe weather/tornados in Southern Alabama, Southwest Georgia and Northern Florida today. Usually indicative of the strength of the dynamics involved with a system. Surface low near St. Louis is already sub 990mb. Forecasted to deepen to sub 975mb before occluding over Lake Michigan late tonight.