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NJwx85

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Posts posted by NJwx85

  1. 38 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

    Just can't catch a break here. I think it's comical that we go from cutters or storms with no cold air in place to an overly suppressed set up. I can deal with the first two but the confluence induced dry walls are the worst.

    I've had 4 measurable snowfalls already, two plowable and it's only January 3rd. The important thing is that we're in an active pattern so there will continue to be storm chances. We had a period in October and November where it rained like twice in a 60 day span.

    • Like 1
  2. 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

    Finally a weenie storm on the gfs.

    That timeframe is the one to watch since all the models have some type of storm. They are also showing plenty of cold air around with a stout ridge out west.

    The northern stream piece coming through the upper plains is problematic for areas North of the city because it forces the ULL East prematurely. 

    • Like 1
  3. 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

    Too little too late. Just too much going against another period of intensification. More then likely the effects of baroclynic forcing. The wind field is definitely increasing and highest winds will probably stay steady state low end cat 3.
    This is, was and always will be about a record surge into a major population centers 

    Just to clarify, I wasn't implying that this was going to restrengthen, although some of the hurricane models had modest deepening occurring in the final 12 hours yesterday. But steady state or very slow weakening is likely, and impacts are going to continue to be severe. 

  4. Just now, nutmegfriar said:

    PDS TOR may go over I-95 and through Port St. Lucie.  Wow.

    Severe Weather Statement
    National Weather Service Melbourne FL
    218 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
    
    FLC085-111-091845-
    /O.CON.KMLB.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-241009T1845Z/
    St. Lucie FL-Martin FL-
    218 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024
    
    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN
    ST. LUCIE AND NORTH CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTIES...
    
    At 217 PM EDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Tradition, or
    near Port Saint Lucie, moving north at 25 mph.
    
    HAZARD...Damaging tornado.
    
    SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.
    
    IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
             shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
             to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
             likely.
    
    This tornado will be near...
      Port Saint Lucie, Tradition, and Saint Lucie West around 220 PM
      EDT.
      Fort Pierce and Fort Pierce South around 240 PM EDT.
    
    Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
    Collins Park Estates.
    • Like 1
  5. 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    Someone asked so let’s take a look at radar.

    giphy.gif?cid=9b38fe91fxuywwsmxud92kkxf2
     

    Three things stand out to me:

    1) There’s a legitimate tornado outbreak that’s ongoing across the peninsula. Some of these have had very strong couplets. This will continue so even inland folks need to be vigilant.

    2) The ERC at least on radar looks nearly complete. As you can see that’s leading to a much larger core. That’s important for who gets the eyewall and perhaps intensity heading into final approach.

    3) There’s landfall zone is narrowing on the models but more importantly narrowing on radar. Do not let your guard down slightly north of Tampa or slightly south of Sarasota. As the landfall zone narrows, it’s still critical to pay attention to long term motion, but every wobble becomes increasingly important. 

    Watch to see if the heading slightly shows its cards after the ERC completes. 

    At the end of this loop it appears that the old inner eyewall collapses. 

  6. 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

    The 12z NAM is basically a worst case track for Tampa bay. The more east trajectory after moving into the bay really allows the surge threat to get amplified with the Gulf water rushing in behind the circulation. 
     

    It’s the NAM but should give some clues directionally on the rest of the 12z suite.

    Also shows a swath of 12-18" of rain with locally higher amounts over most of the I-4 corridor. Even though likely overdone, that's going to cause a lot of problems to go with the tornados and tropical storm force winds.

  7. 2 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

    I feel like this is the first time I’ve seen a hatched tornado risk with a tropical system

    I know that the NAM isn't very useful for tropical systems but look at this forecasted sounding and hodograph from the 12z 3k NAM for the Orlando area.

    :yikes:

    nwFeTT5.png

    • Like 2
  8. 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

    Rainfall threat is not getting enough attention —can already see the PRE well established and intensifying. Incredibly heavy rainfall all day today Tampa on North/East towards Jacksonville 

    This combined with the tornado threat are going to be major stories away from the immediate coast. 

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  9. Milton is so far doing an excellent job of fighting off the shear. As someone else just eluded too, new deep convection (-80C or colder) cloud tops have begun wrapping around the Western half of the system. The ragged appearance this morning was likely due to a combination of the ERC and overall less favorable conditions. 

    Additionally, dry air intrusion is currently minimal if at all. The models that weaken Milton the most on final approach have dry air wrapping around the entire Southeastern portion of the storm. It will be interesting to see if this happens. 

    The 12z sounding out of Key West still shows a very moist environment. 

    9kx0oOt.gif

    • Like 3
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