Jump to content

NJwx85

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    19,337

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    I hope we get 3” of sleet.
  2. NJwx85
    There’s going to be a band of 1-2” rates but it will move through quickly. I think the models showing 8”+ are mostly overdone but there could definitely be a narrow corridor where everything is maximized in terms of lift and a cold enough column. If I had to pick a spot it would be just North of the city.
  3. NJwx85
    The GFS soundings look great for all snow for just about everyone. My biggest concern is how much snow growth there will be. This is primarily an overrunning event. Just because it’s cold doesn’t mean you’re going to get great ratios. It helps but that’s just one piece of the puzzle. There should be a 3-6 hour period where most of the snow falls. I would be cautious with forecasting more than 4-6” for most.
  4. NJwx85
    WWA here from 4am to 4pm. Expecting 2-3” here, a smidge less than the last storm where I had almost 5”. This is proving to be one of my snowiest Decembers in recent history. I hope we can get a KU out of this pattern before it snaps. January is looking like a torch for most of the country.
  5. NJwx85
    What about for SE PA?
  6. NJwx85
    What did the 12z Euro show for Friday?
  7. NJwx85
    The 3” would be up near Yorktown Heights with less than an inch for Yonkers. Westchester is a tale of two worlds. The dividing line is often near Hastings on 87.
  8. NJwx85
    I could see a last minute cold tick that would bring accumulating snows to the coastal interior (West of the PIP and North of Rt 80) but as of now I think it’s mostly confined to the higher elevations of NW NJ and areas North and West of the 287/17/87 junction near Sloatsburg.
  9. NJwx85
    Eye is clearing out again and -80c tops wrapping around the Southern half of the CDO. Guess my hallowed out core post was off base lol.
  10. NJwx85
    It does look like there is an attempt at building a core. The “eye” is warming.
  11. NJwx85
    I think the IR loop presentation now is more indicative of a truck tire (hollowed out core) than the emergence of an actual eyewall. We’ve seen this happen many times after significant land interaction and then reemergence. Hard to tell without recon or radar though.
  12. NJwx85
    The motion looks almost Easterly right now. That would prolong time over water. The core appears to be mostly intact, at least based on IR.
  13. NJwx85
    Has anyone heard from Josh since LF? His last tweet was about 5 hrs ago before the worst hit.
  14. NJwx85
    Nova Scotia better watch out. Lots of guidance tracks this very close to Atlantic Canada in about 96hrs. This after hits on Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda likely.
  15. NJwx85
    The eye is slowly constricting as you would expect, but the remainder of the structure is holding together remarkably well considering the land interaction and high terrain.
  16. NJwx85
    It probably peaked about 3 hours ago, but my guess is second LF into Cuba as a high end major. Probably 125kts if I had to guess.
  17. NJwx85
    The water is about the same but shear will be gradually increasing.
  18. NJwx85
    It’s moving almost due North, right along 78W. It should be back over water in 2-3 hours. It’s a much shorter trip than if it was moving more Northeasterly. It also will keep it over water longer before reaching Cuba.
  19. NJwx85
    This is what happens, especially when you consider the high terrain. But, the Northeastern portion of the eye wall is already more than halfway across.
  20. NJwx85
    Do you guys think it will weaken significantly before hitting Cuba? It’s moving awfully fast now and Jamaica is rather narrow, to the point that the Northern eye wall will reemerge rather quickly after landfall.
  21. NJwx85
    It looks like the NE portion of the eye wall is almost on shore. Landfall seems likely in the 3-4 hours.
  22. NJwx85
  23. NJwx85
    This is the shelter Josh chose. It’s a solid concrete hotel. I remember worrying about him with Dorian and Haiyan but he always pulls through. He might be stuck on the island for awhile but he’s prepared as always. I wish he still posted here.
  24. NJwx85
    That part of the basin was also running 3-4 degrees C above average. The water there is in the mid to upper 80’s. Pure rocket fuel, which went untapped all season. We knew this would blow up as soon as the shear relaxed. It was a very vigorous wave that made it all the way from Africa and overcame a lot to make it there. The vortex is highly battle tested.
  25. NJwx85
    ERC’s and what causes them are still largely unknown.
×
×
  • Create New...