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NJwx85

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Everything posted by NJwx85

  1. NJwx85
    Latest Dvorak estimates are in the 165 to 170kts neighborhood. I bet we get 160kts at 5pm.
  2. NJwx85
    On a side note, -80C cloud tops or colder have now wrapped around the Eastern 2/3rds of the CDO. Hard to remember that happening before in the Atlantic. Only other example I can recall is Dorian at peak intensity.
  3. NJwx85
    The mean motion is more Westerly again. I think we’re seeing an example of an intense hurricane amplifying the ridging to its North. This of course is being counteracted by the trough building into the Southeast US and making for quite the battle. I fully expect the eventual hard turn but Melissa continues to track to the West of most guidance and the official track. Even these small shifts can have major implications regarding landfall location.
  4. NJwx85
    The Northern turn has begun but it’s more of NW turn than true North. At this point it might get close to 79W before it crosses 17N.
  5. NJwx85
    It doesn’t appear to be turning yet. What you saw was a wobble back to the North to counteract the wobble South and maintain the mean motion West. It’s moving at 3mph. The steering flow is weak. The ridge to the North will gradually weaken thanks to the trough that’s building into the Southeast US. As it weakens, Melissa will feel the weakness and gradually turn North.
  6. NJwx85
    As others have said, Melissa is currently moving South of due West again.
  7. NJwx85
    I believe it’s already West of the official track.
  8. NJwx85
    The shear to the West, Northwest has been steadily decreasing. Strengthening should resume later today.
  9. NJwx85
    It’s doing its typical over amped garbage.
  10. NJwx85
    There’s going to be a storm offshore, just delayed and not as intense as previously thought. Also the impacts away from the immediate coast will be minimal.
  11. NJwx85
    12z Euro AI has almost no rain West of Trenton.
  12. NJwx85
    Uncanceled my trip to Hershey this weekend. Tomorrow looks like very spotty light showers, maybe slightly more numerous overnight. Sunday looks almost completely dry out there now lol.
  13. NJwx85
    I meant in terms of wind and rain.
  14. NJwx85
    I decided to cancel my trip. Too big a chance of rain on Saturday and rain and wind come in early Sunday.
  15. NJwx85
    Yes but then it would change back to snow as the ULL pulls away on Monday after a dry slot Sunday night. This system is reminiscent of March 2010.
  16. NJwx85
    Not much of an inversion showing up, at least not on the GFS soundings. Should be quite gusty, especially due to tighter pressure gradient in proximity to the high.
  17. NJwx85
    The 12z GGEM looks similar to the GFS from what I can tell.
  18. NJwx85
    Can you post please? What does Saturday look like too?
  19. NJwx85
    It’s looking like Saturday afternoon is going to have issues now too, especially Southwest. Thought it would be salvageable but considering postponing my trip.
  20. NJwx85
    I was looking on Tidbits. Just noticed it hasn’t been updating.
  21. NJwx85
    It’s still very possible that this gets kicked out instead of pulled in if the timing is off. The 00z GGEM showed this scenario. It eventually captures but not until the center is well Southeast of the benchmark.
  22. NJwx85
    Hoping for a dry weekend. Heading to Hershey.
  23. NJwx85
    I was in Weirton yesterday. Flew into KPIT. It was still quite hazy landing but the drive on 22 was gorgeous.
  24. NJwx85
    The storm threat drops East of the Hudson however I like today's threat for Northern/Central NJ extending into the LHV, especially if we can get some clearing.
  25. NJwx85
    Thanks everyone. Yup, 3rd one wasn’t planned but ….. happens.
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