hlcater

Freezing drizzle in IC. Roads and sidewalks are horrible already. I nearly slipped on the sidewalk coming back from class. If we get any significant amount of snow on top of this respectable sheet of ice, traveling will be very treacherous to say the least.

I’m in Iowa City for this one, so I’m all for that!

DVN will need to seriously consider WSWs for the NW 1/3rd of their CWA. Challenging forecast of whether or not the 00z guidance’s drastic shift is to be believed.

From 12z? Probably a good 40 miles.

And more juiced. I’ve only seen a kuchera map for the euro, but it has widespread 8-10” amounts in Iowa

The models shifted south like I strongly thought it would, but I don't believe its for the same reasons that I had outlined. The changes are with the vort max itself, which shouldn't necessarily be affected by surface snowcover, especially as it is embedded in strong SW flow from that large upper trough to the west. It's clear that the vort has moved significantly south but I can't figure out why. Unless the models just handled things that poorly, but even that seems implausible as the shift is coming within 24 hours. Interesting case if these trends end up verifying.

Yea I'm in IC for this one unfortunately with no chance of going back to CR, even though their total may double ours if things set up right. Either way, with these trends even IC may see a few inches out of this when nearly every model was forecasting a big rainer for here even just this morning.

I was starting to lose faith in my initial SE call. But it's definitely happening today.

The 18z Euro just came in and it's wayyyyy south. Like normal with the euro maps I post in here, this isn't mine. Seems that models are picking up on the widespread snowcover hanging things up? Whatever the cause, every 18z run has moved south in some capacity. In fact, it's so much of an outlier I'm almost tempted to ignore it and I probably would if it wasn't an outlier in my favor lol.

Yea GFS went even further north. FV3 looks like it will continue to come in north as well.

Ukie remains south and colder than the rest of guidance along with the NAMs and the Euro to an extent. Against the GFS, the FV3 and the CMC. I *still* think we see this trend colder/south, but I guess we will have to see.

Models have actually trended NORTH so far on 00z with the exception of the Ukie and the NAM

Yea I don’t really care how much snow I get so long as it isn’t freaking rain.

Of note the HRRR still has me getting 6 additional inches. I’m not entirely sure I can believe that. I think we get 3-4 more inches for a total of 6-7”.

Am I wrong to think this trends south due to the fact the system is shearing out as it moves east and that the snow and cold(especially if cold is under estimated) could shunt the baroclinic zone south into Missouri? I think models are cutting the system a bit too hard.

Including LES I presume?

I’ve got more or less 2” on the ground here and it’s coming down hard at the moment. Probably 1”/hr at least.

The GFS's response to the Euro. 480 thickness over IA/IL

That event wasn't nearly as widespread with the warnings. Infinitely more impressive in the areas that it did hit however.

It's been a long time since I've seen this.

Someone at DVN is pretty hyped.

Looks like a 5-8” event in the CR/IC area. I’m currently in Iowa City but debating whether heading back to CR is something worth doing.

Temps in the teens too. Probably rocking 20:1+ ratios in that band from Forest City, IA thru Worthington, MN.

Screw that. Go big or go home. 3" is utterly uninteresting.

Pretty significant crapout on the 00z runs -- and these were the ones to be fully sampled. If the 00z GFS/HRRR/RAP are to be believed, there's gonna be a lot of busted WSWs.