PowellVolz
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Everything posted by PowellVolz
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What in the world... .
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MRX kept the WWA for Knox Co. in their zone forecast it’s 100% rain the whole time. [emoji23] .
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I doubt the temps even fall off much tonight considering how warm it is above us already. .
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45 at 5k feet. We’re toast in the valley. .
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18z HRRR now looks like the NAM in the valley. Surface temps never get lower than 35ish. 850mb line runs up the east slopes of the plateau into Kentucky. Good luck to everyone else. .
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I was thinking about that also. North of 40 in the valley is very overcast now. .
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33 in Knoxville. Winds are still out of the NE though. .
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Now it’s cleared back up in Knoxville .
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MRX.... Key Messages... 1) A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain can be expected across the region tonight and Thursday morning. Wintry mix will transition to all rain by Thursday morning. 2) Very challenging forecast on precipitation type. Initial precipitation will be influenced by wet bulb cooling due to dry airmass and eventually strong dynamic forcing between 03-10Z. However, models strong strong warm air advection/isentropic lift which will fight to change precipitation to rain. 3) The strong system will also produce widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 1 1/2 inches with localized 2 inches+. Given the soggy soil conditions, most of this will be runoff which may cause some localized flooding issues. For Today... Little changes planned for the forecast. Areas of cloud cover will move across the region especially the Plateau and southwest Virginia. Current forecast highs look good. For Tonight and Thursday, strong dynamic forcing due to enhanced jet structure (300mb jet near 150kts). Strongest forcing will be between 03-10Z with impressive isentropic lift across the region. Will be a very challenging forecast of precipitation type with low confidence of snow/sleet accumultations in the valley locations .
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So because we don’t see this every day. Does this change the feeder winds to more out of the west? Would this effect the warm nose? .
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I feel like the trend will be for the NAM to come east and everything else trends west and they meet in the middle. I think the snow never makes it in the valley other than some token flakes on the back end. I think the cutoff will be on the eastern slopes of the plateau. .
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I feel like as long as we stay within reason on temps we will be ok there. It’s the mid levels that I’m worried about. .
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Temp has came up 3-4’ at my house without a cloud in site. .
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Isn’t this ahead of schedule? .
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MRX actually raised my low temps tonight from 33 to 34. Might be right though. .
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Not sure it matters but surface winds according to a big American flag in downtown are out of the NE. .
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Around 19ish in Knoxville .
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All the PWS around my house are reporting 18-19 degrees. Already below NWS and TWC app low temps. .
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That’s a pretty big jump to be honest. Need 2 more jumps like that to allow for it to trend back NW in the 11th hour. .
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Didn’t want to see a trend towards the NAM .
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Does it warm the valley up more than 18z? .
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
PowellVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
2015 was when school was out for 2 weeks. I work for KCS as a HVAC tech since 2001. Seems like during those 2 weeks we had more than one storm. In 93’ I was a Jr at Powell HS. Cannot remember how long we were out though. What’s crazy is in February of 93’ we had a tornado outbreak that destroyed about 15-20 hours less than a mile from my house. It was a long track tornado going from Oak Ridge to Fountain City. Crossed interstate 75 at Emory Rd exit. . -
Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
PowellVolz replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Schools in Knoxville were closed for 2 weeks. .
