PowellVolz

The 18z control was definitely a bad run for Nashville, but better for east TN folks. I would say it was on its own at 12z but if we count the Euro ensemble control as a low resolution version of the operational, that run was much better for eastern areas than 12z. 

RGEM out to 84




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Low QPF, which I'd assume is underdone. 

Here is the run:

 

Is the low snow total up the valley because of sleet or cold rain?


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The Euro had one job to do with the other models improving so drastically. So of course...

Looks like the storm moving through tomorrow has trended north just going by the SPC severe weather forecast


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No idea If the Euro is right or wrong but if this was the euro from 5 years ago I would be more worried than I am. I still think we are a couple of runs away from being out of no man’s land and big swings tend to happen during this time. If a trend correction doesn’t happen in the next 24 I’d start to worry. Let’s not forget the last couple of rain events greatly over performed.


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Says Anderson County and areas north of Knoxville reported nearly two feet
 

The Canadian has an extreme warm nose at 800mb that causes sleet/freezing rain over the Eastern Valley areas and southern Mid-State. The model is depicting heavy sleet and the 800mb warm nose temp being about 33-34f while the surface temps below it are in the mid to upper 10s. The Eastern Valley/S-Mid-state areas get like .6 to .7 QPF of sleet which would be about 1.5-2.1 inches of sleet with around a half inch to inch of snow on top of it. 

Memphis morning disco…






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Would snow on the ground to our NW change anything? Could the front have less drag and in return makes it further SE and could potentially suppress a GOM low if it’s there?


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So are we just gun shy on starting a thread? Western parts of the forum are just a few days out.


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I'm just angry right now lol. Nico has a MUCH higher ceiling than Milton ever did. We should be competing at a high level again next season. 12 team playoff actually makes post season interesting.

It does look taller so, it could be part of why the s/w digs more.  But I think a lot depends one how those PNA ridges tilt too. 

18z EPC control dug and slowed the trailing shortwave a lot more:
18z control on the left, 12z OP on right 

 
Doesn't quite go out far enough, but I suspect that was about to be a nice Miller A. 

I hope everything turns out great with 100% health for your wife.

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Saturday or Friday? It looks like Saturday will be clearing out and turning cooler.

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It’s part of the game.  Last many years UT has had many loses to Bama.  Not sure why all the hate.  It’s a game. 

Guys in the southern valley might want to keep an eye on the Saturday severe across the south. MRX even mentioned that if the central valley had a little more CAPE it would be interesting


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I don’t blame him. He’s the greatest coach of all time for college. The NIL has turned the college football into a mini NFL league.  The kids play for money now.  Rumor is Kirby  is going to go to the Atlanta Falcons the day of coaches and kids sticking around are done. No loyalty. No more 1 team winning every year.   Soon many of the great traditional games will be a thing of past.  The SEC is already different.  To think SMU in the ACC. Crazy times.  

Good thread here…

https://x.com/mikemasco/status/1745198754653688296?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg


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Well. Bye.

Nick Saban just retired


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