PowellVolz

The 12z RGEM also continue the trend of flattening-out the NE side of the storm.  

Mountain counties are warm nosed. Rain/freezing rain. On rgem atleast
 
In fact, the rgem warm noses a larger portion of ETN this 12z all the way through Johnson city.

Serious question about the DGZ… obviously I know what it is but what is the depth of it? Is it a shallow layer in the atmosphere or does it continue up into the atmosphere? I guess what I’m asking is… the lack of snow in the mountains, is there ever a situation where Mt Leconte could be above the moisture feed?


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Every morning I get up and look at TWC app just to delay being disappointed for when I look at the board. This morning TWC has 3-5” for Monday and 3-5” for Monday night.


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Yesterday, I was reading some on another forum covering the Chicago snow (can’t remember where I saw it), but was talking about the NAM being the only one not on board with a major snow). It ended up beating all the other models.  
 
It’s interesting because our system is projected so much further north than other modeling on the NAM.  If it continues to stay north, will be fascinating to see if it can score a similar victory.
 
I will say I have seen numerous overrunning setups in the past be further north and/or have that SW to NE trajectory vs the WSW to ENE trajectory once it starts developing.  The good thing is, we don’t have to wait too much longer to find out.  

As George Constanta might say, there is shrinkage

Wonder if it has ingested the 0Z GFS, I would assume so.

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I honestly don’t think there’s any trends at this point going on. Feels like mods are just bouncing back and forth 50ish miles or so every run. The issue is the margin of error is pretty thin considering we are looking at 150-200 mile swath at the most for a significant amount. I’d say the big swings are over with at this point. Feels like the southern plateau up to Crossville is probably a safe spot to be in. I won’t be surprised if the bouncing around continues up until kickoff. If I had to give an opinion, I’d say the best thing for a forum wide event is for the mods to come in a little SE and hope the mods are underestimating the NW precip shield which they have been known to do.


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I'd actually call the ICON pretty kind to probably 80 percent of East Tennessee. 

Not fired up about the trends this afternoon if they are in fact trends and not glitchs. The more the system we are dealing with now moves out of our region, the more the mods seem to be act strange.


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Not sure what's going on with Pivatol and the NAM. It's like it's showing virga as snow output. 

They determined that it takes less snow to cause major problems in the Southern and Central Valley of the Eastern areas vs the Plateau/Mountains. Here they seem to have done away with the 6 inches/24 hours requirement. There's also forecaster discretion as  Jax noted. 

With the new criteria, I think everyone probably gets the Winter Storm Watch, ironically, I've got less chance as of now than other areas because criteria is different here it looks like 

Anyone else see it or am I wish casting here? lol

While this may be my own forecasting “anti-bias” / cautious & pessimistic forecasting attitude taking hold, but I don’t like the look of the end of today’s 18z Nam for eastern areas if one wants snow. We haven’t had the actual arctic air yet arrive from behind the current system and it remains to be seen just how robust this arctic air is when it moves in Sunday. I feel pretty confident western and middle tn folks are on board to see some decent accumulation, but the potential is there for this swath of snow to shift 50-100 miles north of the current forecasted area for East Tennessee if deep cold thickness lines end up not being as far south and shift sw to ne like the end of the latest nam 12km is indicating. This is exactly what happened on January 5th, 2022 with the snow expected to hit pretty much all of East Tennessee with 3”-5” anticipated, however, in reality, all of East Tennessee barely received a trace or even 1/2” with most of the moderate to heavy snow going to our north and west with milder and drier air over all of East Tennessee. I’m not saying this is what will happen with this upcoming system because I’m sure different dynamics are at play and the Nam isn’t necessarily spot on at hr 84, but I did get a small dose of PTSD when I saw the end of the NAM and connected that to Jan 5th 2022.  

New model run per my offspring. Basically a composite of what we saw yesterday. 

I always enjoyed probability and statistics in college, even though I was horrible with numbers.  If they think there is a 40% chance of 3 or more inches, would they also accept a 5000$ bet to pay out equivalent odds that it does snow over 3 inches?
 

What's your Twitter handle?

Still snowing East of the Plateau at this point. Some sleet down towards Chattanooga.

 

RGEM and ICON are less amped and letting the snow spread eastward faster than the NAM. 

We are still going to see some weird runs with every mod but the foundation has been laid, especially with MRX getting on board.


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Here you go. Hard to see but leaves and small debris are ripping past. This is my new record for wind! Previous was 74mph during hurricane Irene in Eastern, NC. Station recorded 83 while I was recording.
 

Goodness…. I’m guessing this is around 3k feet or so?




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There’s a 20 degree difference between the Gatlinburg summit web cam 48° 3k feet and New Found Gap 29° 5k feet and heavy snow.


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I creep on your thread because the discussion is always so good and in-depth. Just wanted to drop in and say I’m happy for you guys. Reel these storms in and take plenty of pics for your brethren east of the Apps that can’t make a thing happen.