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PowellVolz

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Posts posted by PowellVolz

    Tn Valley Severe Weather

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    I'm still surprised more people didnt die in the Nashviile (downtown) from the F3 .The Kissimmee,Fl tornado (F3)was the worse in late Feb but the Birmingham F5 lifted 2 miles from downtown,that would have been catastrophic if it hit downtown.The chart is from fatalities in 1998
    Storm-Prediction-Center-Storm-Reports.png.64bf51eb29b088a3656966f6f2031c9c.png

    I’m just about positive we had damage in Powell and Halls from a tornado during this event.


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    March/ Spring mid-long range

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    We really want to hang on to cooler weather for as long as possible w/ La Nina lurking.  It has been my experience that if things warm-up during spring(during La Nina years), the summers are long and brutal.  I don't see a long period of misery....more like cool shots, rain at times, and a strong cold shot or two.  There is certainly a scenario there where it gets quite cold as ensembles being cold at this range can sometimes translate to much colder.   Right now the cycle is....warm followed by step down to seasonal followed by step down to bitterly cold.  Do we repeat that cycle one more time?  IDK.  But, I do think we are seeing a legitimate pattern change coming up w/ more troughing at least making its way eastward.  The Mountain West is piling up snow, and they are going to need every bit of that water content.


    My memory is terrible but spring 2016, do you remember the overall pattern? We had a very warm March. So warm that I remember golf courses were almost green by the end of March and then we had about a week long freeze right around Easter that wiped out a lot of Azaleas, crept myrtles and fruiting trees. Hoping we don’t repeat that spring. (If my memory has the right year but I’m almost positive it was the same year as the GSM park fires).


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    February 2024 mid/ long range

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Just reading D'Aleo over at WxBell who I respect a lot....he has a graph of one area of the Pac where the El Nino just collapsed during mid January (100-180?).  I have not looked to see where that is, but I do wonder if the collapse of the El Nino has had a significant effect on the second half of winter.  We kind of got the worst of both worlds - first half Nino(typically warm) and second half Nada(typically warm!).  We managed about ten days of weak El Nino...and many scored.  
    Also, JB think the PDO is set to flip positive next winter.  I see no evidence of that but haven't looked at recent metrics for it.  Anyone have a forecast for it?


    Seems like a PDO flip would be good for us?


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    • Like 1

    Tn Valley Severe Weather

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    A quick minute from SWAD 2024. James is right. More TV mets should consider being more familiar with specific landmarks and reference points when doing storm coverage. 
     

    I have friends that have lived in the same area for 45+ years and when I send them a weather map, I can tell they are confused with where they are looking at. Mind blowing to me. My son is 9 and he can point out to where we live without cities on it.


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    • Like 1

    February 2024 mid/ long range

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

     Today’s Euro Weeklies are warmer for 3/11-18 and not as cold 3/18-25 vs yesterday’s run. :rolleyes:

    I’m kinda in spring mode now. Seems like a warm February tends to lead a delayed spring. I’m sure we will have a couple cool days down the road but I hate extended cool periods in April.


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    • Like 2

    February 2024 mid/ long range

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Yea, I shudder to think what would happen to the forum area if we had a winter like we had when we were kids in the 1970's 

    I’m almost 50 so I remember a little of the 70’s but the 80’s is where I really remember. My first memory was an ice storm in Knoxville maybe around 82’. I remember me and my dad going from Powell to Knoxville to pick my grandma up and take her home. She was Knoxville’s City Court Clerk. I also remember the April 1987 snow storm that’s been talked about already.


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    • Like 2

    February 2024 mid/ long range

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    Yea, technically, I have done well also north of Nashville the last two seasons, however, I would have liked to have had a longer "winter" season that just the week we had in January this year but technically both seasons I have had above the seasonal average in snowfall 

    Winter definitely doesn’t last long anymore


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    • Like 3

    February 2024 mid/ long range

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    I don't know what the issue w/ LR ext modeling is.  It may just be LR ext modeling is not great during Jan/Feb.  I suspect modeling missed the IO/SOI/MC area forecast.   The anomalous GOA slp during December was not great.  I also think the NAO is terribly difficult to forecast at any range, and that was a big miss.  The NAO could have given us a chance for cold later this winter.  When modeling lost it....flipped warm.  So, I think the combo of difficulty in modeling the NAO and also MC regions modeling failures caused the bust.  The strat split miss probably didn't help.  Guessing we also have an ascending QBO and declining El Nino.  Again, not all El Nino winters are cold and stormy.  We thankfully got a decent, little window.  But the 90s El Nino winters were hot garbage with the exception of a couple of really notable events.  And honestly, outside of last winter, three of the last four winters have had some decent winter weather to track for at least some portion of the forum area.  

    3 of the last 4 winters in MBY I’ve had at least one 6” snow and two 7-9” snow. Not at all going to complain.


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    • Like 2

    February 2024 mid/ long range

    in Tennessee Valley

    Posted

    I think about the time we all think it is spring and are happy with the temps....gonna be some wicked cold temps.  I can see a signal during week 4 which shows that, but during shoulder season, those cold shots can be a mirage.  SSW cold dumps West and then heads eastward.

    April of 16’?


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