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PowellVolz

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  1. One of the tricks it may be up to, is Lee are notorious for being under modeled 6+ hours out on precip. If it hangs around as CAMs suggest tonight, could be interesting for everyone.

    I was looking at the HRRR sim earlier and towards the end of the system you could see the precip in the southern Valley up against the foothills start drifting more north back into the valley like a little wave developed or something. I haven’t looked in a while though.

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  2. Mesoscale Discussion 0069
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1150 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2024

    Areas affected...parts of middle and eastern Tennessee

    Concerning...Heavy snow

    Valid 151750Z - 152045Z

    SUMMARY...An area of heavier snow rates, occasionally approaching 1 inch per hour, may be maintained east-northeastward across portions of middle and eastern Tennessee through 2-4 PM CST, before gradually diminishing through early evening.

    DISCUSSION...A mid-level speed maximum propagating across northern Mississippi is forecast to reach the Cumberland Plateau by early evening. This still appears associated with an area of enhanced mid/upper forcing for ascent, which might be maintained through the 20-22Z time frame while overspreading portions of middle through eastern Tennessee. Thereafter, frontogenetic forcing is forecast to generally weaken across the Tennessee Valley through southern Appalachians vicinity, yielding diminishing precipitation rates. Until then, it appears that the area of enhanced lift will include upward vertical motion maximized within the favorably cold mid-level layer (centered around or above 600 mb) for large dendritic ice crystal growth. It appears this may remain strong enough to support continuing potential for occasional heavy snow rates up to around 1 inch per hour, where lower/mid tropospheric profiles are maintained at or below freezing (roughly north of the 0 C isotherm at 859


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