PowellVolz

Yep, no snow in E TN would bring rebellion.

Yeah, and it is highly unlikely the boundary is correct at this point.  Everyone north of a line from New Orleans to Atlanta to the Research Triangle is in the game.  It is HIGHLY likely that modeling under-doing the extent of the lower level cold.  And we are still seeing some pretty wild swings, even on ensembles.   I think a 95-96 type of storm seems likely.  Where that axis would be, IDK.  The almost certain warm-up between Jan 20-30....folks might welcome it with open arms!!!

I would think with an active STJ this could get wild somewhere in the upper south if this air mass is real.

Hopefully we get snow on ground before that kinda cold.  Otherwise just dry & cold.  I’ll take a hard pass. 

Thanks for the update. I've been worried about her. Hopefully that took care of everything and it's your family's last worry with the cancer. 

PowellVol…..I don’t write much on here due to me being a weather dufus……but prayers for your wife and family…..my wife had a double 2 years ago….she is doing great now…..

Man, thank you for the update.  You all are definitely in my prayers.   Glad to have you here!

Tell your wife to hang in there!  Prayers for a speedy recovery for her.

I am really sorry to hear about that man.  I know it's rough. Had a similar situation last year right after our first son was born. Words can't express enough. 
I hope your wife has a speedy recovery.  

Continued prayers for you & your wife & family.

Sorry, I was in a hurry earlier.  My initial response probably didn’t make sense.  I was re-asking the question as in, “So what about the upcoming cutters?”  And not, “Cutters?  What cutters?”
 
Cosgrove has noted that during January the winter pattern will often reload.  That is probably part of it - I hope.  That standing wave could stay there the rest of winter, but it “should” depart after 5-7 days.  And yes, the wave is bottling up the pattern IMHO.

Cutters?  I think that is a response to a temporary southeast ridge and/or standing wave.
We haven't had many cutters at all this season as evidenced by the rainfall deficits in middle and western forum areas.  The main storm track is the low road at the moment...and that will likely change for the medium range.   There are places in the West and Plains with no snow on the ground at all.  That said, the MJO influence on future weather is real.  Probably the better question IMO is why things are cutting in the medium range?  It is the influence of the MJO in my opinion  The timeframe from Jan11-14 has almost universally supposed to have been warm.  Really, Jan11-25 was supposed to be warm until modeling slipped a cold shot in round Jan15-18ish.  MJO 4-6 will by default put the trough in the West unless the NAO can counter it which it might well do.  Cosgrove has an interesting article this morning on storms which cut.  Basically, with so much projected cold air in place in Canada(remember, our source regions are changing to extremely cold)....that cutter could pull down the mother load which personally I don't want!   LOL.  Honestly, middle and western areas of our forum need some rain, so cutters are good with me.  The main worry w/ the MJO is a stall in phase 6 later this month....if that happens, winter is up for many.  But that is still a ways out there, and I think it unlikely.  The good thing about cutters is they are going to put down lots of snow to our northwest in the Plains. 
Of note, TRI is below normal for temps so far for the month of January.   That is no surprise.
As long as the MJO doesn't stall in 6(and it could), it will likely rotate into colder phases during the last week of January.  The cold that we have now is a result of an MJO rotation though colder phases.  The difference next time is that the source regions for the cold likely won't be Pacific maritime air.  The signal for winter has generally been the second half of winter.  We just need the MJO to rotate quickly through warm phases and then out....
Until then, there is cold on the map.  And as a reminder, modeling is going to be all over the place.   Of note, the MJO doesn't have to be warm during 4-5-6....that is not a set-in-stone rule.  Something to watch.  

Anyone concerned with all of these cutters acting like a roadblock?

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How is this even possible when I got 3 little snows last year in the valley?




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I’ve had a lot of personal stuff going on and haven’t been able to follow much….. is the cold that’s coming keep getting pushed back a day at a time? Looks like the middle of Jan we could be in business?


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TBH I was being a little bit disingenuous when I said it was the best Miller A so far.
The below isn't aimed at you Met1985, but I figured if I want to type a little might as well type a lot. 
1) the bar ain't really high so far for this system
2) at the surface it looks gorgeous on the ICON, but the mid levels are a mess. 

 
One thing that you see on the ICON and GFS is that there are at leas 2 separate vorts at H5 that interact for this:

 
Watch how the lead (A) runs out in front on the ICON, while the second one digs and tries to consolidate late:

 
You can see that on the 18z GFS too, but the lead vort (A) keeps its act together better, so the thermal profile for we unfortunates in the eastern TN Valley are in trouble:

 
Euro has a slightly different evolution and tries to pull off a late phase:

The result is pretty much the same., but it's at least nice to have something semi trackable. 
 
Hot off the presses the GEFS mean SLP is popping a surface low over Huntsville, AL, def. not a good sign for this side of the Apps. 
 
 
 

Milton messing around on his phone and having to be told Heupel was talking about him when the camera shows up pretty much sums up how I feel about Milton’s attitude. 
Ready for the Nico era! 

Talking about the snow records…. I’m not sure this helps or not but a few years ago we had a minor snow event, 2-5” across the valley. The official accumulation for Knoxville that day was around one inch. MRX the next day released a statement explaining the reason for that. They said they check for snow amounts twice a day, AM/PM. It started snowing after the morning opps and they checked again at 5pm where they recorded 1 inch. They actually acknowledged that earlier in the day there was 3+ inches on the ground but it had melted down to one inch when they checked it.

I still call BS on this. I’ve never heard them say that they check for snow twice a day. They do not do that for rain or the temps. That particular system, MRX was calling for .5-1” for Knoxville. During the height of the storm, we had almost 4” and traffic was a disaster. Felt like to me that MRX was padding their accuracy percentage.


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Weather is a lot like Tennessee athletics. Just when you feel like you are headed in the right direction, you end up with 33 and rain.


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Has been a thorn in the side of snow lovers here in east TN numerous times over the years.  Any semblance of energy west of the apps would really hurt chances of a winter event for those east of the plateau (except maybe SW VA), outside of a mixed precip to rain type deal with really good timing (i.e. overnight/early am arrival).  Would really like to see a consolidated low pass well to the southeast of our area.  Without an unusually cold high structure over the top, a piece of energy west of the apps will make a winter event almost impossible to work for those outside of elevation east of the plateau or the CAD favored regions east of the Apps.
 
We may get this type of setup later in the month if some of the ensembles showing the polar vortex trapping underneath blocking have some truth to them.  It’s fun to imagine an active southern branch with very cold air trapped and pressing into a good chunk of the country.  This winter already feels much different than last, even if we don’t score a winter storm over the next week.

Flashback…

https://x.com/weathernut27/status/1741578524610207901?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg


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That system is archived here still on page 8. 2nd from bottom. I just went back and looked it up if yall would like to read it again. It was so fun watching it fall! The one time the valley had CAD and the mtns went rogue warm!

Wish I could remember the year. It’s been in the last 6 or 7 years but we had a very interesting system that came through ETn. The forecast for my area was snow to rain and backend snow. NWS thought a couple of inches up front before the changeover. For some crazy reason the valley had CAD north of 40. At my house 30 min north of Knoxville, the temp never broke 30 degrees and it stayed snow 95% of the event. I ended up with 8+ inches but Knoxville got only an inch and it switched to rain pretty quick. I remember my temp was in the upper 20’s and I was watching opps in the foothills and mountains waiting on WAA. I remember Gatlinburg was in the mid 40’s. One of the craziest storms I could remember.


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6z GFS gives you hope Matthew (so it can take it away later)

 
I like this very realistic (read with sarcasm)
close up snap shot from that run:

There is no way if there is a valley warm nose and a low over Tellico that I'm staying snow, lol. 

Is it me or does it seem like the wave west of here is rotating more east than the mods suggested?

Also… moderate sleet shower moving through Halls.

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