PowellVolz

Nice burst of snow/sleet in NKnox Co


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Mine isn't far off but it's a random chance of rain mixing in between 9 and 10pm. 
 
Friday
A 40 percent chance of snow, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Friday Night
A chance of snow showers before 9pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9pm and 10pm, then a chance of snow showers after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
A chance of snow showers before 4pm, then a chance of sprinkles. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. West wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

I know El Niños aren't notorious for alot of cold air, but we still have a ways to go to get a legit cold air source cold enough for snow and ice sleet here imo

Hmm looking at that chart from Nashville, looks like Cumberland county towards Crossville would be pretty easy? Take 40 and hit the highway? 
Again, for someone who has never seen snow, just it falling with some white grass is enough. Odds that area is a good hit? Don't know how they typically do in these set ups. 

MRX zone forecasts sometimes make no sense at all lol…for my location.

“Friday
A chance of rain and snow before 5pm, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night
A chance of snow showers before 8pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 8pm and 9pm, then a chance of snow showers after 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Rain/snow on Friday changes to all rain after 5pm (lol)

Then at some point before 8pm it’s all snow but then Rain/snow between 8-9pm.




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Without a 4x4 I'd watch the models/radar and head to either Western Cumberland Co or 141 area in Campbell County.  In Campbell, 141 sits at around 1800 feet and there's plenty of level driving there. Most modeling has that area getting an inch or so but timing looks like it may be more Friday night. Western Cumberland looks to be one of the better parts as far as potential accumulations. I'm not sure if a 4x4 would be needed or not.

Really shafted here. Drought back to life. Just 0.30" System Total as of now. 

Nico officially announced as the starter.


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MRX with an interesting tweet. Interesting that they are talking about this several days early.




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Been a fire hose up the valley the last 3 hours.




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I suspect modeling is waaaay under doing the warm-up.  Ensembles are starting to see the MJO rotation now, but no slam dunk that it is warm.  Where I would have said there is about a 90% chance of significant warm wx after the 10th, now I would say 70%. Then cold looms again after that - maybe 4 weeks of seasonal/BN and we make a break for spring. The NAO could completely erase the warm sig on modeling...but I just think the MJO wins.

https://x.com/trackersacker/status/1739320860689813504?s=46&t=LVg8BRWCh1zZb6F_t95EVg


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NM…

I don't think Miller Bs help any of us....I was just explaining the snowpack over the Midwest.  Hybrids work up here though.

Merry Christmas (Eve....24th run) from your favorite ext global ensembles....2x 46day and 1x35day snow maps.  Euro control is picking up on two storms - Jan 12th and Jan 22nd.  When snow gets to the Panhandle....usually a good thing on modeling.  Modeling definitely is keying on an inland runner Miller A primary track with likely some Miller B thrown in as well.  Snow pack to our north means cold air could return in a hurry if the MJO will allow it or the NAO locks.  No idea if correct, but enjoy!

 

Oh yeah, mostly lurking but I’m always around. 

18z GFS giving us a dose of nostalgia for Christmas

General ob in passing as I read today's updates: It sure seems whatever transpires in the short to mid-term pattern-wise will be fluid with a decent ceiling for amplification. I will not speak to any specific system timing; however, it sure seems like there's a better chance of local winter weather mischief as opposed to a grinch-like torchy pattern locking in. The latest weather vids I've watched from DT and BamWx have been encouraging. Even when you talk about MJO progression into mild phases, it seems we have half the primary NA teleconnections cooperating at any given time. Not seeing much evidence to unfavorable stalls anywhere. I'll take it two days into calendar winter. 

2021. The SSW started January 5th and lasted through the 23rd or so. It was an ice box in February but mostly from the Plateau and west. It's the year Texas froze. 
2018 was just brutal but it was late winter and we froze in March instead of it happening at a decent time. 
 
There was a weak on in January 2015 as well. We were extremely cold then too. 
 

 

Latest outlooks.  Seasonal will work in Jan/Feb.  Drought predicted to persist in middle and western areas of the forum north of I-40.

 


 

 
 
 

Saw a story a week or so ago that a major strat warming was coming. Hopefully we get the cold and not the other side of the world, if it does split. 

Early January 2011 overrunning event. Only time in my life there was a stress free snow. Zero modeling had us getting missed, and temps were in the low 20's when it started. The models had that one keyed in from 7 days out. Even the superstorm was in doubt by many. February 2015 was close to stress free, but not as certain via modeling.

Middle to the end of next week is something to watch. This could reach as far north as the Ohio Valley


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Funny quote from the MA thread.  Someone asked if the volcano in Iceland would help or hurt our snow chances.  One response said that molten lava could be a problem.

Was surprised to find a solid dusting at my place in the Colonial Heights area of Kingsport this morning. Nothing on the roads but more white than grass in the area yards. That changed quickly as I drove into Kingsport for work, as most other areas had little or no accumulation on my way into downtown. We must have just caught a good squall at my location. Still, a nice beginning to Christmas week!