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PowellVolz

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Everything posted by PowellVolz

  1. Friend of mine in Lexington Tn, NE of Jackson said an hour ago they had snow and 30 degrees. Seems like temps are falling lower than I expected. Edit: he just told me schools are closing in Jackson. He wasn’t expecting to get anything more than a few flakes. .
  2. Was assuming the NAM might fall off a little. Nice surprise .
  3. Parts of west/middle Tennessee was just issued a winter weather advisory. My buddy NE of Jackson is saying the changeover is happening faster than expected .
  4. 15z SREF held at a 3” mean but now every member is showing at least 1 inch. .
  5. 1044 High pressure. Is that strong enough? .
  6. [emoji23][emoji23] we know that ain’t happening for us. .
  7. Still a lot of “if and buts” we are working with. If the cold air is a couple hours late we are looking at a flurry or two. .
  8. Just got around to reading MRX overnight discussion and it grabs my attention that they point out that significant forcing lags behind the front with the jet overhead. That makes me feel better about the precip enhancement post frontal passage that the mods are seeing .
  9. SREF actually jump from 2” to 3” mean from 03z to 09z this morning for TYS. .
  10. I’m not your guy to explain what’s going on with the mods, this board has a lot more smarter people than me on here. .
  11. I think everyone is having the same doubts because there’s nothing to account for the extra precip in the valley and mods don’t handle micro climate enhancement all that well. Unless the environment post front is really unstable, I’m having a hard time seeing more than the typical 1” max on the ridge tops in the valley. .
  12. Don’t forget the possibilities of a little RH getting trapped in the valley with CAA overrunning. Seen this happen a couple of times but its more typical East of 40/81 .
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