Warm Nose

Supposed to leave for my cruise on the 31st! Dulles got to do some work ...

More like 666

I saw maybe 3 mangled flakes

Current thread:

You're hugging the RAP ...

My issue isn't with Kuchera itself - it's a tool that attempts to boil down the prediction of ratios into an algorithm even though there are an exponential number variables that feed into that equation. It's simplistic and flawed (as is every other model) and should be taken with a grain of salt but I understand the intention and it at least makes an attempt at prediction. Therein lies the skill of the forecaster. We do see 'lazy' forecasters (present company excluded lol) giving it a bit too much weight.

Anyone care to share actual QPF maps instead of the Kuchera nonsense?

RIP, little thing.

I grew up this area. I can remember many times going to school during a snowstorm. If it was particularly bad, sure, school got called, but none of this 'any flakes in the air = cancellation' stuff. Oh, and get off my lawn.

No Anchorman fans here, I guess. Any actual QPF maps instead of the evil Kuchera?

QPF maps?

If we can get the norther vort to weaken a bit we can get a slight QPF bump ... I like the trend

Closing that thread has been shown to be favorable to future modeling. Just sayin' ...

If they do they might be without water for another week and a half

Let's just get on with cancelling this thread so we can get some actual snow

Next.

Live look-in at this storm:

It's snow on snow ... the opportunity for that is to be appreciated even if we don't get to 'folks' accums.

I'm in that band on the west side and right up against the northern edge of it. It's been varying in intensity but has put down about another 3/4-1" total in the past couple of hours.

I think I'm mostly done here in extreme western Loudoun. Measured 5", under of course the 8-12 that was proj'd but that's normal these days. I doubt we'll get a lot from the coastal but this is not a jackpot for us NW of the cities. Still fun.