Warm Nose

I'll take the under ... along with the total of points the Redskins Commanders score this weekend

Updated discussion from LWX 000 FXUS61 KLWX 060241 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 941 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure shifts off the Delmarva coast this evening while an area of low pressure tracks northeast from the Gulf Coast heading into Saturday. This storm system will bring a widespread wintry mix of precipitation to the region Saturday into Sunday morning. High pressure briefly returns Monday before another potent area of low pressure crosses the region Tuesday into Wednesday next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Broad troughing extends from Iowa southward toward the Gulf Coast this evening, with a prominent shortwave trough located within the base of the larger trough over eastern Texas. This shortwave will rapidly lift northeastward overnight, reaching the Tennessee Valley by daybreak. High clouds have overspread the majority of the area this evening, well in advance of the system approaching from the southwest. Clouds will continue to thicken and lower over the course of the night. Precipitation may break out just prior to daybreak in the central Shenandoah Valley/central Virginia Piedmont as stronger large scale ascent/low-level warm advection moves in from the southwest. 00z hi- res guidance indicates that much of this precipitation may initially fall in the form of freezing rain across the central Shenandoah Valley/central Virginia Piedmont. Winter weather headlines start in those locations at 4 AM. Further north and east, the majority of the forecast area should experience dry conditions overnight. Lows will be in the 20s for most, with lower 30s in downtown DC and Baltimore. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The southern stream jet intensifies from the Southern Plains toward the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. A series of strong upper troughs will traverse along the southern stream jet, as an associated surface low pressure develops over the Deep South and quickly progresses northeast. This low intensifies as it reaches southeast VA Saturday, then moves over the Delmarva Saturday night. Precipitation is expected to overspread the area starting early Saturday morning, mostly in the form of snow, with sleet and freezing rain mixing in at times, especially for portions of the central Shenandoah Valley, central Virginia Piedmont and central Blue Ridge. For areas right along and east of I-95 any snow is not expected to stick beyond a coating on the grass/elevated surfaces where precip quickly turns to a cold rain by mid morning. As the morning progresses the 850mb temps warm above freezing as strong WAA pushes a nose of moderated/warmer marine air atop the cold air at the surface. The warm nose will vary in temperature across the area, which is going to result in a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet, especially along/east of I-81. Cold air is likely to hang around the longest west of the Blue Ridge and north of US-48 where primary p-type through the event is snow. Even in the areas where snow totals are higher, there is concern that sleet and/or a wintry mix could bring down overall snow totals. The rain/snow line will push inland through the afternoon, likely reaching just east of the Blue Ridge. Some models indicate there is a potential for precip to revert back to freezing rain as night falls and temperatures drop, roughly a line from Winchester to Dulles north toward the PA border. Uncertainties remain on exact snow and ice amounts. Regardless, this winter storm is going to produce hazardous conditions due to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Ice accretion amounts up to two tenths of an inch are possible in parts of the Central Shenandoah Valley into Central VA, and up to around one-quarter inch along the Central Blue Ridge, with a trace up to a few hundredths of an inch of ice possible elsewhere in the Warning/Advisory areas. Snow/sleet amounts will vary, though looking at 4-7" for western Maryland and much of the eastern West Virginia Panhandle. A tight gradient of 1-3" likely sets up near the I-81 corridor and cutting east through Frederick MD and Carroll. East of the gradient and along the I-95 corridor snow/sleet amounts between a trace to a couple tenths of an inch. The surface low pressure will quickly move offshore into the Atlantic on Sunday. Aloft, an elongated shortwave trough will remain atop the region, helping to produce upslope mountain snow showers. An additional few inches of snow is possible along/west of the Allegheny Front through Sunday night. Some light snow showers or flurries could spill east of the mountains during the day. Brisk WNW winds gusting to 20mph possible in the afternoon as highs reach the low to mid 40s.

This. Surface temps even at what's proj or lower isn't going to get it done unless somehow the air fryer at 850 from the east somehow shuts off ...

Got up to 43 here. Seems promising

Good news is I need the space in my garage so I can finally make the decision to junk the snowblower that hasn't worked properly in 3-4 years anyhow.

Next ...

This. You do not want to be heading up and over Snickers Gap if the rates are as advertised.

Prob belongs in Banter, but I can suggest several spaces: NAMd Sun Angle Will I be OK to drive to [insert place] App Runner Outlier ... Toss [...] Pummeled! (will also accept Short Pump) Snow hole

Current mood ITT:

There's an issue when the NAM is our best option ...

Rayno

You misspelled 'mix'

Just west of RH, @ 800ft on the nose...

New Sterling discussion, SIAP. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A strong southern stream mid/upper-level trough over the Mid-South Friday night quickly moves northeast as it phases into a flat trough over the OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. At the surface, an associated area of low pressure develops along the northern Gulf Coast and very quickly moves across the Southeast states through Saturday morning. The surface low becomes better organized as it crosses eastern NC into far southeast VA, where it moves offshore along the NC/VA border. Precipitation overspreads the area from southwest to northeast starting late Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures Friday night are forecast to be below freezing for most of the area. However, there is considerable uncertainty to the east of US-15 as easterly winds advect in a warmer marine airmass and strong WAA ahead of the surface low help to increase temps along/east of I-95. All that being said, precipitation is likely to start out as snow west of US- 15 and a rain/snow mix along/east of US-15. As the morning progresses, areas east of I-95 are most likely to transition to a cold rain, with steady snow west of US-15, and a mix in between. Having the surface high well to the north and weak onshore flow preceding the surface low are not generally favorable for accumulating snow along I-95. Any chance to see higher snow totals there will be dependent on higher precip rates and wet bulb effects overcoming the marginal temperature profile. Still, p-type is going to be highly sensitive to the track of the low, with a tight rain-snow gradient likely. Significant snow accumulations are most likely along/west of the Blue Ridge and Catoctins. Where precip is more likely to be in the form of rain, near and east of I-95, there is the potential for instances of flooding. Continue to monitor the progress of this storm as the weekend approaches. The coastal low tracks northeast and away from the area Saturday night, then a reinforcing upper trough traverses the area on Sunday. Some lingering rain and snow showers possible during the first part of Monday north of I-66 and west of the Blue Ridge, though conditions dry out quickly in the afternoon. Upslope mountain snow showers continue into Sunday night.

"When all else fails, rely on historical climo" seems to be the writing on the wall for this one.

37 and still all rain here at 800'.

All your waves are belong to us.

The only question this year is how and when the fail will reveal itself.

OMG Rain! 36/27

OP, please change thread title to: "sNOw chance"

Snow hole seems legit to verify.