Warm Nose

It was eluded to earlier in the thread, but the impetus for the sudden trend here is the HP is stronger than previously modeled?

Didn't expect them to go all-in at this point, which is probably the wise move. Still, the fact that we're almost inside of 18 hours it's kinda crazy the uncertainty.

80% of the sub after waking up:

That's odd - I had a good 4 inches here - Had 3.5 earlier in the week. And I'm only 4 miles from PVille

I was out earlier in the afternoon and despite the snow roads were just wet. Since the sun has gone down everything that was wet earlier is now frozen. The wind didn't dry things before sunset, meaning there's a lot of moisture on surfaces still. My road, which has been plowed multiple times and was bare but wet earlier, is pretty iffy now. There's gonna be tons of black ice so if you go out this evening be careful.

You missed this earlier, apparently ... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 826 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-018-503- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.240119T0900Z-240120T0000Z/ Georgetown, including M street 826 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 …COLD RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY... …COLD RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT… Cold rain expected for the duration of the event. Total rain accumulations of two-tenths of an inch. * WHERE… Georgetown. * WHEN...until 11 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very wet in the affected area. Frustration levels might also peak when observing frozen precipitation in adjacent areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while viewing forecasted winter weather and storm observations. Slow down, walk outside and look up to verify the precipitation is in fact rain and not frozen. && $$

29/6

<BANTER> I brought that up when they first rolled it out that it was confusing ... It really should be something like 'Reasonable maximum snow accumulation scenario' or something similar </BANTER>

Kinda surprised by this one, but I guess it's needed: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 826 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016-018-503- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.240119T0900Z-240120T0000Z/ Georgetown, including M street 826 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2024 …COLD RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST FRIDAY... …COLD RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT… Cold rain expected for the duration of the event. Total rain accumulations of two-tenths of an inch. * WHERE… Georgetown. * WHEN...until 11 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very wet in the affected area. Frustration levels might also peak when observing frozen precipitation in adjacent areas. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use caution while viewing forecasted winter weather and storm observations. Slow down, walk outside and look up to verify the precipitation is in fact rain and not frozen. && $$

Ahh, the ole 'Bull Gear' failure ...

I used the Google version which is vastly inferior, and a pretty crappy prompt. The results were, somewhat lacking. You get what you pay for in this case... ---- The Blizzard Bearer of DC: PSU's Forecast Furore PSU, or "Predictive Snow Unicorn" as he was affectionately (and sometimes mockingly) known on the American Weather Forum, wasn't your typical meteorologist. Sure, he had the charts, the models, the lingo like "geopotential heights" and "frontogenesis" tripping off his tongue with ease. But PSU had something more – an almost uncanny ability to feel the whisper of blizzards, a sixth sense for snowflakes swirling on the horizon. He'd post on the forum, not with dry data dumps, but with poetic pronouncements like: "I smell salt in the air, friends, and the wind whispers of fury. Hold onto your hats, the Atlantic's brewing a beast." Or, "Ice crystals clinging to my beard, folks. Winter's flexing its muscles, and the Mid-Atlantic's about to get flexed on." His warnings, tinged with whimsy, were never disregarded. Local news channels clamored for interviews, the National Weather Service lurked in his forum threads, and snow shovel manufacturers secretly offered him sponsorship deals. But fame wasn't PSU's game. He reveled in the power to warn, to prepare towns for the white-knuckled ride of a blizzard. He'd track storms like chess pieces, his posts rallying points for communities bracing for the onslaught. When his forecasts unfurled with chilling accuracy, he wasn't smug, but relieved. Lives saved, roofs secured, children sledding with glee amidst the aftermath – that was his reward. So, next time a winter wind carries a hint of salt and your town buzzes with whispers of "PSU's called it again," remember: the Blizzard Bearer of DC is just doing his duty, translating the snow's symphony for those willing to listen.

Let's not get carried away here ...

Ji will be along shortly to complain why we're not getting smoked ...

Well, maybe ... depending on the ruler

Can confirm. Heaviest SN+ of the entire storm here right now. Ratios are strong.

That dryslot to the west is real. Just reached here and it crushed the rates significantly it's all pixie dust now. Headed east on radar ...

There's a known radar hole in the Shen Valley due to terrain. That being said, it does look a decent amount of drier air is moving this way.

Best snow rate of the day as the greens finally started popping ...

Effectively stopped here with occasional flurry here and there. Big-time dryslot over Loudoun rn and what appears to be drier air working in from the west. 26/18