downeastnc

Well on the track they are currently calling for Charleston would be totally fine, even more so by Saturday....Philly should be ok as well as the storm will be over NC/VA then if it does indeed come ashore....

yeah plenty of time to see this miss to the east......the crappy part is that it probably wont be evident its gonna miss until late in the timeline.....this isnt your typical NC cane hit setup or approach angle though and usually when these type of setup occur they tend to be less wishy washy and come on in....Isabel/Fran etc....both were pretty locked in by 4-5 days out. We knew they were coming and chances of landfall where high.

One thing that should be stressed is this is not your typical Cat 1-2 NC cane threat and should be taken with extreme seriousness...especially anywhere that will be along or east of this things eventual track....

getting real....NHC plots landfall Cat 4 130 mph ILM......still 5 days out also why does it gotta be nighttime.......

You can hear them big gust coming....in every hurricane I have been in there is the normal steady roar but the big gust have a certain "rumble" to them and you can always hear the bigger gust coming sometimes for a min or two, and they are spaced out so you hear them coming then they hit then for a few mins its just the steady wind sound then your start to hear a rumble again etc etc etc, the closer to the center you get the faster the bigger gust come......and in Bertha we got the eye and you could hear ( and feel ) the rumble of the backside coming for a good 5 mins before the wind kicked back up. Its surreal how the winds went for almost totally calm to gusting steady 60-80 in just a couple of mins.....

The FV3 closer to the Euro now without the annoying loops though it does stall a bit....this run would probably give me the eye so if I gotta deal with the cane at least I have that to potentially look forward too.....

I can hold off till tomorrow afternoon on the gennie...found one on Amazon with Prime I can get it Thur even if I order it tomorrow......so if the models consensus still shows the ILM north towards me scenario at 12Z tomorrow I will order it. The model spread is not very large now and this is starting to look like a typical climo NC/SC border hit moving NNW to NNE over central/eastern NC.....I am officially concerned, a Cat 1-2 bring it on Cat 3 or better go OTS please.

HWRF on the Euro train for now....130 mph at landfall RIP south beaches.....North Topsail down to Kure beach would just be obliterated.....

yeah the GFS is drunk and needs to go home.....though that is the weird meandering crap these storms do if the steering currents get weak.....still of all the outputs this has to be the least likely....they said that about Harvey last year too though.....

So the main thread needs a mod or two badly....time to go scorched earth over there...... GFS smokin crack crazy loop and dumps a insane amount of rain.....that plus the constant onshore flow would back the rivers up with surge and just make this friggen terrible....good thing this is a pretty unlikely scenario...at least the OBX wouldnt need to worry about flooding from the 3 ft of rain they get since surge would already be taking care of the flooding....

Honestly it would be like that all over I think, Fran was really bad on her NW side the center was 75-100 mile SW of PGV and we gusted to 110 so that track with that kind of storm would be the windiest hurricane in interior NC since Hazel, especially with the deep ridge off to the NE to really pack the gradient on that east and north sides...and then there is this....luckily the rivers are low but I dont know if they can deal with this.....

Yeah Euro real ugly for the Triangle to the coast.......probably 3-4 millions without power that run....

Euro gonna be NC this time or SC/NC border......looking like maybe Fran part duex only with Hugo.....

FV3 comes in just north of ILM.....then moves NNE across eastern NC before looping back down off SC and then coming up and hitting ILM again......the last 4 runs have hit anywhere from Hatteras to Georgetown SC.

Still havent hit the checkout button yet......so far the GFS is east of me and the Euro inland from me.....probably means I am screwed since the blend is right over me lol.....found one on Prime that I can get by Thursday even if I wait till tomorrow....

The ICON 00Z run is a miss just off Hatteras and the first non landfall run for the ICON in 3-4 runs.....it however has always been more of a S to N type track just inland over NC and most other models are more SE to NW......

Never fear i am about to order a generator off Amazon for Wed delivery this will all but assure the storm will not hit eastern NC....

No problem , like I said peak gust in Greenville was probably 70-80 mph and nothing in this video was that bad, peak wind hit right at dawn and the videos didnt come out really....most of this is like I said 25-30 mph sustained gusting to 50-60 at best....PGV reported wind gust to 50 or better for 15 straight hrs..... This is the next day....you can see my parents house on the right when we take the turn thats the carport we were under.....its also the carport Fran almost took out....

This is dumb, look I am a wind junkie I love it.....but there is a huge difference between Cat 1-2 winds and Cat 3-5 winds ( which this will likely be) ....this video I took from Irene shows how it is with 30mph sustained and gust to 60, and it was like that video nonstop for 12-15 HOURS.....you dont want more than this trust me. In Fran it was the middle of night no power winds hitting 100-110 in gust and the sounds outside of everything tearing up while you wonder if the roof stays on is not something you want to experience....or at least I hope not. Then there is the after effects, no power for a week or weeks, not able to work, it sucks.

So Burns you gonna be in MHX for this one Icon and GFS have gust to 120ish there.....if they are right I wont have to chase......

Yeah 12Z gave me the eye, this run I never quite get in the eye its maybe 30 miles further east moving more north, kinda goes Lookout,Aurora,Williamston,Ahoskie/Roanoke Rapids....havent been in the eye since Isabel but it was a ragged storm, Bertha was the only real true eye I have been in, and it was not like it was all blue sky though we did see blue sky.....many runs left to go but looking pretty likely that some part of NC is gonna be dealing with this storm....

First record low in the 40's for my neck of the woods is the last few days of Aug.....latest GFS is meh though the Lakes get some low to mid 40's......

The NAM 3k is still a pretty nasty thump for a lot of central and eastern NC...this would be a bit more than flurries in the Triangle

you guys all act like winter is over after this week or something......missing out this week doesnt mean there wont be other chances down the road.....though the cold will need some time to reload and a mid Jan warm up will happen. Then its a matter of waiting to see if the cold dumps south again around late Jan into Feb for another few weeks of cold and snow chances....

You would think we live in North Dakota with the way folks expect snow to happen down here.....overall in NC ( outside the mts ) your lucky to see winter weather happen 3-5 times a year and of those times it might accumulate 2-3.....its not even Jan yet and the overall pattern the next 2 weeks is one of the coldest in a while...the GFS not having a storm 5-6 days out is in no way meaningful since for one its the GFS and two models in general suck at picking up storms in the SE in this type of pattern and often doesnt get it right till inside 72 hrs....see Xmas 2010 as a prime example.