downeastnc

Might not matter to much Euro expands the wind field quite a bit and has hurricane force gust around the center the entire time the storm is over land from FL to NC....but yeah initially the SE side will be the worst according to the models but still many places in GA and hell even SC and NC potentially will see gust to 60-80 mph......

Right so pick whichever models you want.. point being they haven't really changed or as Hky points out have higher winds. So it's odd to me that the NHC backed off when all the guidance suggest otherwise.

Last night the NHC was had 20-30% chance of hurricane winds here, NWS had changed Thur night to hurricane conditions and I wake up and the NHC has a 45 mph TS over us and all the probs for anything over 45 mph winds are gone....then I saw the Euro an was like why would they do that given the output on the Euro....and the storm is coming in 20 mph stronger and a bit faster than they had it back when they had the higher probs of 50 knt and hurricane winds, yet they lower it strength over us without any real changes in the modeling as well.....Guess we will see what happens today...

Yeah the model agreement is locked in for sure......this thing is gonna nail the NHC track +- 50 miles all the way through its trip across the US....

This storm is going to knock out power to so many people....millions will be without power by the time it gets off NC coast....the HRRR did excellent with Flo and Matthew as far as winds go....

So this is my new point and click forecast from MHX....I was like whhhhhaaaaattttt....thats different. Thursday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 84. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible Thursday Night Hurricane conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible. .

Interesting change to the NHC wind prob maps for NC at least.....last advisory there was no chance over NC anywhere and now there is a 20-30% chance of seeing hurricane force winds....will be interesting to see if these numbers go up, also looks decent for gust to 55 over a nice hunk of NC.....might have to see them tropical storm watches spread west some...also expect hurricane force wind chances to grow in central GA, I think they ramp this storm down way to fast....

I would not be surprised to see hurricane force gust there.....hope you got a plan for not having power for several days.....

TS watches up for entire MHX CWA......

Most official totals I am seeing are 4-6" and most of that is over the parts of NC that didn't really flood to bad.....wind will be the bigger issues.....lots of houses with blue tarps on the roofs still and trees that are leaning or damaged...wont take to much to get them all down.

This frame shows the storms in NC east of the center, semi discrete and probably moving north at 40-60 mph......would be very efficient at bringing down stronger winds and would probably have their fair share of rotations....every frame of the run is like this as it crosses northern SC and NC....so after blasting FL/GA it could be a strong tornado threat for the Carolinas....

The NAMS don't do terrible with track so much as intensity......in fact the NAM runs are not far off from any other "better" models at this point as far as track goes...intensity wise they are garbage generally...... but for once it is inland the NAM 3k will be good for tracking banding features etc....in fact the NAM 3k runs are scary for NC as the bands of storms on the east side as the center crosses the state would be very prone to tornados etc....already under a slight risk....

I know with a few of these storms here in the east that hit later in the year the dry air wrapping into the storm helped mix the winds down, so the steady wind wasn't that much but there were violent hard hitting gust that were way faster than the background wind. Matthew for example had strong winds well away from the center on the NW side.....I wouldn't be surprised to see "rogue" gust to 60-70 mph in places but typically 40-50 mph should be peak gust for most of central and eastern NC away from the coast as it stands now, he hits stronger or is moving faster than forecast and those numbers could go up.....

I imagine there will be TS watches/warnings along the coast and sounds but I wonder if MHX/ILM/RAH are going to go with inland tropical storm warnings or maybe just regular wind products.....

So the kids here were suppose to have a half day Thur and all day Friday off but they were changed to make up days for the days missed for Flo.....now with that track/intensity there is a pretty good chance they will cancel school Thurs.....and then depending on how much wind actually happens they might have Friday off too....

Right over me.....caves to the GFS a bit......now the question for many of us up here still is going to be what kind of winds will this produce up in eastern and central SC/NC.....so many houses with tarps on roofs and leaning trees.....they might handle 40-45 mph gust for a few hrs but 60-75 mph gust even for a few hrs would be a issue for a lot of people and power outages would be widespread and half the power lines in eastern NC are brand new lol.....the folks in Fl and GA are gonna get hammered for sure.

Its been a while since a strong organized hurricane has barreled inland bringing very high winds far inland.....and the insane rainfalls of the last few big storms has overshadowed the wind impact....if Mike comes in as a 120ish Cat 3 and accelerating off the the NE quickly there will be plenty of significant hurricane force winds well inland especially along and east of track. This will extend well into GA and even potentially depending on a several factors be capable of producing winds to 50-75 mph the entire time its over land.....

Several models now have the pressure holding steady or actually falling as if crosses NC and transitions.....wonder what that would mean for mixing down those 850's could be a case where we have average sustained winds 20-30 but are able to see bigger gust to 70+.

That's a decent west shift....the 06Z in front of the Euro throws me off lol.....the stronger storms stay east though that cluster of ens has shifted west quite a bit as well

Hard for me to expect winds higher than say 40-45 given the distance over land it has to travel.....though the transition to ET could be a wild card in how efficient it is getting the 850's to the surface, the ICON actually has the pressure deepening as the center passes over eastern NC and begins to go xtropical....could be a meh event with gust to 40ish or it could be a wild 4-6 hrs with rogue gust getting to 60-75 mph.....probably wont know which of those will happen until it actually gets here though.

With that forward speed places in central and south GA could see winds gusting over 80-90 well inland, then depending on how it transitions to ET the wind field could hold up with rogue gust to hurricane force the entire time its over land especially on the N and E sides.....or it could be only capable of gust 40-45 by the time it gets to the Carolinas...

MHX already got TS conditions in forecast for MBY.....that forward speed is a issue as far as wind goes along and east of the track could see some decent gust especially over the IBX/OBX Thursday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Could end up getting wind almost as bad as we did with Flo IMBY if he gets as strong and takes the track and speed several models have him at.....luckily the forward speed will cut down on rainfall totals.....it all comes down to how organized Mike is and how his wind field plays out as he transitions to a ET low.....

yeah it will take the storm being well organized and strong to keep a 40-60 mph wind field all the way to the Carolinas.....the forward speed though will be a issue, if it is moving as fast as modeled then the east side especially could see gust 40-60 all they till the storm leaves the VA coast....

Michael is thankfully going to be moving fast so that should help on rain totals......depending on how organized it is though this could up the winds inland though probably not more than 40-60 mph in gust and mostly on the east side....intensity forecast are such a crap shoot but shear etc should keep a lid on this thing that water is warm though and you never know.