downeastnc

Euro way off on intensity with its OP runs which is probably why its so south and flat compared to the others....

The blend is still the way to go.....the Euro is the southern outlier the GFS is the eastern outlier ( ICON is if we count it ) the Ukie and FV3 and CMC are all in between......so this means ILM to maybe MHX is the sweet spot. The angle is also pretty different with the Euro flat and almost WNW, where as the others weaken the ridge a bit more and are more NW...if the Ukie is similar at 12Z today to its 00Z run last night then I think the Euro will be the one to adjust closer to the others. It would end up looking like a Fran track or even right up 95 if you blended them all together.....with a stall somewhere around the NC/VA border in central NC, south central VA

GFS landfall Cape Lookout/Drum inlet then inland....honestly thats the best place for a Cat 4 to come in...least populated section of OBX and IBX there is....

yeah the almost west motion at landfall some models have it pretty odd..totally possible but if its slowing down like the NHC has usually that means its turning north, I mean it wouldnt slow down to turn more west right? West would mean more ridging and should maintain the speed not slow it down....or maybe I am just overthinking it. The ICON which was the last hold out with the OTS solution came back to a landfall and stall this run though its out over the sounds/IBX.....

Yeah the potential area that could see hurricane force gust from this storm is ridiculous.....

yeah that was kinda odd at first glance with the difference in strength....but then look at the timing change and how slow it moves right at landfall.....also keep in mind there is gonna be a strong 1030 mb ridge off NE and a 950-970 mb tropical low in SE NC that should mean the N and E sides quite far from the center are gonna have winds a lot stronger than you would typically in a rotting system...and that will persist for hrs and hrs if the storm stalls.....

GFS coming west a bit might be a landfall should at least get Hatteras....

That 140 is practically onshore thats rough right there.....we are talking Hugo/Andrew/Charley type territory there.....seriously rare company.

yeah I meant inland more so than the coast as places all over the Cape Fear region gusted over 110-120 in Fran.....there was a few 130+ on some weather stations down there and even a 140 something as well I think right? I know they are not counted in the official gust.....

Yep this is the most often overlooked thing the center is just that the center, TS force winds will be 150-200 miles or more even from the center......by Wed night the beaches will already be pushing TS conditions....

The thing with these tracks like this is the gradient between the strong ridge and the cane really beef up the NE side well away from the center.....the peak wind gust in Fran were 50-100 miles northeast of track...i went thru the same mess with Fran we gusted 100+ and we really were not expecting more than 50-60 due to the track being farther away. Then when you consider Fran was "only" 115 mph cane when she hit and this thing has the potential to be 125-140ish......ugh......then it stalls and rots...ugh again...its almost like it has to end up OTS because this is like the worst case scenario we always talk about happening one day....... and now it looks like that day is this Thursday and that cant really be happening cause this is what we always talk about but never believe will actually happen....

FV3 has actuaslly been crazy consistent the last 5 runs

The Euro ens are conditional to the strength of the storm though.....all the ens that take her to central SC have her as a Cat 1/2 for the next 2-3 days. The Euro ens that take her to Cat 3/4 over the next day end up Myrtle to Morehead....the Ukie shifted north considerably over the last day....CMC came back north for what its worth and the FV3 version of the GFS has hit basically the same spot in NC 5 runs in a row.....the only misses are the GFS and Icon and they are both east offshore barely.... At this point there is tons of agreement that the center will cross between the SC/NC border and MHX moving WNW or NW into interior NC....the ridge to the NE will also make the NE side brutal...reminds me a lot of Fran the center was 75-80 miles SW of us and we still gusted 100+ and she was a 115 mph cane...this one is liable to be 125-140.....seriously and without trying to sound all alarmist as it stands this is about as worse case a scenario NC has seen ever. A large steady state Cat 3/4 with 20-30 mile wide eye slamming into the south beaches headed NW towards Triangle and Triad....doesnt get much worse that that for NC. Still though there could be enough variance in the strength and location of the ridge to move the landfall point around but probably not more than 50 or so miles either way.....the models just probably dont have a large scale feature that wrong in the 2-3 day range....

Ukie 12Z today headed WNW comes in goes between Fayetteville and Goldsboro, wouldnt matter though that kind of hit would give 100 mph gust or better for almost all of eastern NC inland to RDU and the coast well ....especially with the strong ridge to the NE.....

Its not really 5 days out since hurricanes are not single dots on a map, by dawn Thurs conditions at the coast would be nearing TS force and going down hill dramatically and by Thurs evening the entire eastern half of NC would be experiencing TS conditions with cane conditions moving ashore.....that means folks along the coast have less than 4 days at this point assuming the timing is correct....

where are you?

Gville does ok with power loss usually, Bertha and Irene power was out 12-18 hrs.....Fran was a day or so.....but folks living in the county can go weeks....also if this thing does get in here and slow down we could see many hrs of hurricane or better gust.....I live in Simpson but my kid goes to Conley

Food Lion was a mess, no bread and all the water was gone except for the Deer Park brand of which they have a tractor trailer full and have it sitting out on pallets all over the store..they had as employee helping load it in carts for older people he said they had 3 more trailers full of water coming in over the next 2 days to just that store.

The NHC disco covers it well.....and it makes sense, based on all the model speeds and strength projections the further N track into NC makes more sense.....doesnt mean that wont change by any means though but based on all the current data and models it more likely to go MB to Lookout that Hilton Head to Charleston.....there will need to be pretty large errors with the 72 hr track and strength plots for the more southern path to occur and there is a lot of agreement and low error in that range.

Look at the NHC discussion to see why there is little chance this is going south of Charleston....the only way that happens is if Flo goes against all intensity forecasting and remains weak....all the ENS members that hit FL/GA keep her a weak Cat 1 for the next 2-4 days.....all the ens that have her undergoing RI and becoming a Cat 3/4 are north SC or NC....

They explain why they disregard the southern tracks on the ENS well in the 11 am update....also that last sentence is concerning.... Florence continues moving slowly westward, caught between a pair of mid-level ridges over the Atlantic Ocean. A very strong ridge is forecast to build over the northwestern Atlantic during the next few days, which should steer Florence west-northwestward at a much faster forward speed. By Wednesday, the hurricane should turn northwestward, and slow down somewhat due to another ridge forming over the Ohio Valley. It is interesting to note that while the ensemble means from the ECMWF and UKMET are west of the NHC forecast, the strongest members are on the right side of their ensemble envelope. Thus, the new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and continues to lie between the corrected consensus and consensus aids. The Ohio Valley ridge is concerning because Florence could stop moving pretty quickly around day 5, potentially leading to a serious heavy rain episode and inland flood hazard.

This is really old.....this has the storm as 110 mph and at like 48W.....she is at 56W west.....I would put the chances at this thing being off Cape Canaveral that close to Florida at extremely low with zero model support.....

Going to be a pretty impressive display by her today organization wise.....she is ready to go off and it looks like it might be starting conditions are about as good as they get.....she is trying to clear a eye now.

06Z FV3 is worst case landfall location for the south beaches IMO.....it basically comes in Onslow Bay right into Jacksonville, this puts Emerald Isle in the north eyewall and Topsail down to Kure in the south eyewall....basically gives eyewall/inner core conditions to every beach from Cape Lookout to Cape Fear then moves inland to around Wilson maybe putting RDU in the western side if the center...while pounding all of NC east of 95.

That's the thing usually the storms coming at us under a strong ridge off NE ( which is admittedly only a few storms) all came on in and the models had good agreement on that 3-5 days out... Flo could still slow and turn up the coast just offshore, how many times have we seen that happen....its dozens. However when you look at the NHC forecast and models they all agree at least Mon-Thur the storm is hauling ass and strong as hell.....if its gonna slow and miss the models are not seeing it yet and I mean how wrong are they going to be with large scale features in this range? I would feel better about it shifting OTS if there was a larger spread in the models ens but if anything the clustering is getting tighter.