Yea its about to get nasty. Big tower coming in. eyewall developing on radar. Gainesville might get a very good hit from this (think houston in beryl).
Yep. A long loop can be created documenting all phases. genesis, vortex coupling, failed and successful intensification attempts, and finally now its RI cycle.
I’m in the camp of “intensity forecasts are way underdone”. Can’t rule out a major at first landfall. It’s way way ahead of schedule and deepening quickly already. Models have always suggested this will be deepening on approach, suggestive of a favorable environment. I am interested in where the stall occurs.
Yea I was going to say, the consolidation looks to be happening just east of grand cayman. Would a stronger storm initially be influenced to hook more hard right in this setup?
A lot of the vorticity seems south of Cuba this morning. Not sure it affects track too much but it may have more time over water if it consolidates south of Cuba while moving WNW
I think the takeaway is as the storm first approaches the coast conditions begin to get very favorable, and continue to be so as the storm stalls. As @Windspeedsaid land interaction is key. Upwelling also might become a factor if it gets very intense before the stall
Thanks for the opportunity brother but I’m not disciplined enough to keep the titles updated lol. It’ll stay as a TD in the title thread throughout its life
Very interesting scenario being pointed by the models. Lots of rain coming for someone as the storm gets stuck and trapped. The euro even has it moving SSE across Florida and then up the east coast. Might be time for a separate thread?
Still some uncertainty as there is disagreement between the big dogs. GFS seems to be somewhat caving to the euro as it’s abandoned the idea of sending this west after the stall. Euro still thinks this is an east coast brusher.
I think compared to this board the level of expertise and knowledgeable posters is just severely lacking over there. Additionally the moderators are absolutely childish and squash any and every inkling of disagreement. They treat posters like they are children which is ….. yea not for me. I was a longtime member there and when I found this place I never posted there again
You are doing the good work sir of sifting through the garbage to find the good stuff for us over here. You should get chris / wxman57 to come over here. That board is a wasteland
What’s weird about this disturbance is…..where is it? I looked at satellite and there’s just jack shit out there. Gonna be interesting to see this unfold because the models are clearly latching onto something. Seems like a pattern for some kind of recurve near the east coast?
I do think overall numbers will underperform. I think I called for 26 total but I’m bringing that down a bit. I still think we get tons and tons of majors though
I think the upper dynamics are so incredible that’s it’s basically turning this system into an inland hurricane. Family in Houston still can’t go outside because the winds are so strong