Normandy

I am still dubious of the deepening being shown as its traversing Hispaniola. 2022 has had struggle storms all season and this storm right now is still struggling. OTS is the morning trend thus far.

Lets see what the morning model suite shows. One thing I am noticing is that the storm is moving fast and is still highly disorganized.

This thing is looking well ahead of schedule

Has some definite spin and vorticity but is stretched out east to west (like every system this year)

There aint no sugar coating this.....we are getting fucked HARD this season. Basin is trash and model runs for rest of the month are trash.

For me its really simple. I enjoy severe weather and enjoy watching it and following it. There are two ways to watch severe weather: Satellite and radar imagery, and in situ documentation via video. The latter requires severe weather to interact with human beings and their belongings (Hurricanes must hit land to become youtube viral videos. Tornadoes must form and plow through things to become youtube viral videos). Now if you ONLY enjoy the former, then the morality argument holds weight. But I know for sure nobody here is just here for the satellite eyecandy alone....we like to see the power in real life (and if you say you don't, well I simply don't believe you). We are all pigs in the mud here. That is why the morality debate to me is pointless. You can apply this same line of thinking to watching football, MMA, boxing, bullfighting, etc.

Its an interesting question..."Do I want to see people's lives ruined". If you ask me that on its face, then the answer is no. But I do want to see a hurricane hit land so I can see videos like: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ar8Usv-Kwvs on a fundamental level, that is a video of people's lives getting ruined.....and I enjoy watching it. If you say you don't.....I would say you are being disingenuous. So I posit the question back to you: Do you want to see people's lives ruined?

Do we have to do the morality thing......again?

^As a non-met, what I have noticed is that the waves that come off are embedded within outrageous westerly flow.....thus they are basically getting sucked backwards by the wave behind them. Would be interested to hear a pro-met chime in on this

If the hurricanes don't hit they do NOT EXIST!

I live in Los Angeles lol (praying for remnant low Kay)

GFS at hour 384 is suggestive of an active western basin. I think October is gonna nail us personally....I easily see something getting going down there and getting yanked north.

Great post. I had the same thoughts but could never have spoken them like a pro.

Some kind of re-organization going on with the MLC and LLC.

iDUB looking like a strong broken clock!

LOL there is an eye feature on this spinning anti-cyclonically. That is soooooo 2022

Nah that thing is something more than just ITCZ disturbance right now......

The GFS with another spectacular run. Lows flying left and right everywhere in each basin. Straight chaos.

In terms of modern hurricanes, to this day it still is King. No other hurricane has produced wind damage and wind measurements like this hurricane did. Some highlights for me: - 115 MPH sustained / 164 MPH gust measured at NHC (outside of the eyewall, and failure occurring before the worst conditions arrive) - 114 MPH sustained for 30 minutes at Key Largo in the South Eyewall (no failure here, but gives insight into max winds in the N eyewall assuming forward motion (approx 154 mph for 30 minutes give or take) https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/04landsea.pdf

The GFS basically stalling and retrograding multiple waves in the MDR is bizarre.

You ain't lying this run is strung out like a heroine addict

Yea that might break the the forums if that verified.

Yea whiffed on this one. on to the next!

Best it has ever looked. very strong mid to low level circulation now it would seem.

Indeed most of the vorticity is still above the surface. Recon was flying very low investigating this.