As we move closer, there are two potential solutions developing:
- Solution 1 misses the connection on the first trough, causing the storm to instead slowly move NNW until eventual landfall on the N GOM cost (still likely Florida Panhandle, but some potential of a Alabama or MS landfall is on the table)
- Solution 2 does not miss the connection of the first trough, and instead the storm is yanked NE across SE FL. What's more concerning than even that, the trough does not take the storm out to sea and instead leaves it heading due North into a building ridge above. Even if it misses S FL to the east, it just means an East coast strike further up the coast.
In short: US is in SERIOUS trouble with this one.