leo2000

28 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Longer then that. Take 2018 for example. We had one in February 2018 and didn’t feel the effects until March. 
 

We had one in January 2019 but it never coupled so it didn’t nothing for us. 

It depends though it has apparently happened in one week a couple of times before. Other times 2-3 weeks roughly. January 2019 wasn't a very strong warming either this one is a very very strong warming. 

I never been much for New Year's just another year to me. 

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

If it happens the lag is about 3-4 weeks. And that will depend on if it couples and effects us 

I heard it only takes 10-14 days. With the Blocking continuing it should hook up with the SSW causing the coupling. 

The Major SSW is coming hopefully it can shake things up before the Middle of the Month. As the lag is not really long after it happens. 

It's rather ironic that we used to on here ask for the Atlantic to cooperate now we need the Pacific and no help whatsoever. 

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Clash of the Titans pattern on the EPS 11-15 day mean. Firehose Pacific Jet vs one of the strongest -NAO -AO blocks that we have seen in early January. We need to get a nice retrogression of the Greenland block back toward the PNA region. A small +PNA rise can go a long way with a North Atlantic look like that. So some interesting tracking coming up in January when the individual short waves come into better focus.

 

Well luckily the GEFS has been right so far this winter. It is indicating a -EPO and the positive PNA coming in the 11-15 day range. 

 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The PAC looks to be meh into January. 

Yeah but a positive EAMT is usually followed by a extended Pacific jet that usually translates into a Aleutian low and usually pops a +PNA and sometimes a -EPO. 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

You don't want a strong PAC jet. Unless it retracts in the EPAC. 

 

The Pac jet is expected to retract by the end of the first week of January. The fun apparently starts after the first week of January for winter weather. 

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

That’s yesterday’s 

Oh yes your right! 

That gfs para was ugly. 

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Lots of blocking?. Just need coastals that give us snow instead of rain. Of course track will matter. 

Whoa hehe

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We had a few 2-4” deals in the crazy 14-15 winter. Those actually overachieved many times. 

I loved the 14-15 winter hopefully this winter can be like that winter. 

Would this be bad or good for the east coast US? Some are saying the lag may not be long either because of the blocking pattern that is in effect. 

 

 

Matt Hugo

 

@MattHugo81

·

18m

 

12Z GFS ENS maintaining the cold signal as well for the rest of the year especially across more northern and western areas of the UK. Modest high ground of #Scotland #Ireland #NEngland and #Wales could end up with a lot of snow between Christmas and New Year. #onetowatch

 

 

 

 

 

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Matt Hugo

 

@MattHugo81

·

21m

 

GFS maintaining the persistent signal for the strat vortex to breakdown and while right at the end of the run its showing the long predicted SSW into early Jan...

 

 

 

Won't matter much if we get the annual grinch storm on Christmas!

Two periods to watch 20th-23rd and 24th-25th time frame and lots of others afterwards. Plenty of time to go yet to say we may have a cutter at Christmas. Could be a coastal. 

You guys may fair very well with this storm. Looks like it may fall apart as it gets to my area. Hopefully one of the storms can be wintry for my area before Christmas. 

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s just hope it’s not a December to remember and a Jan and Feb to bender our fannies 

Why not?, Jan and Feb could be good too and March can be bad. 

The GFS Para seems to have a better handle on the storm. The GFS seems to make it almost fall apart and weaken and move more out to sea. 

A big change in the CFS weeklies for January much colder! and the CFS monthly as well for January.

Grinch storm just went to Santa Bomb. 

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If you can only have one and the other will we total garbage the pac is better. We have more snows from pac help and a disaster atl then the other way. However, that assumes both the epo and pna are hostile. The advantage of high latitude blocking in a Nina is if you get enough ridging into the western NAO and AO domain it’s going to apply pressure on the TPV to either retrograde west just enough to pop a pna ridge...the you have a +epo, +pna -AO/NAO which is a great snow pattern or you get the tpv to drop into the west and pop an epo ridge and get a -epo -pna -AO/NAO which is also good. It’s hard with a great looK up top for the pac to remain total garbage in both the epo and pna domains. 

It would be nice to get a -EPO, -PNA, -AO and -NAO. A east based negative NAO would be better than a west based one. 

27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What is this based upon ? 

This tells us nothing... I see a cross-hair axis with no units and squiggly line... 

Is it modeled ...or observed - 

what is this ...

NOAA's just released/updated the 30 mb QBO and it has increased westerly phase intensity to 11.15  ... up from 10 in October.  That's ending November 30 - 

Here is the yearly trend:   

2020   -2.51   -3.20   -4.36   -5.03   -4.86   -2.78    0.34    4.78    7.95   10.80   11.15 -999.00

I really don't know just passed along from a twitter user. He seems to read up on the QBO a lot. https://twitter.com/Antonio80288901

This is very interesting a -QBO