leo2000

The problem when someone argues that AGW is causing winters to be warmer or AGW is causing the Polar Vortex to weaken more often than usual. Yes AGW is happening but how it's really effecting weather patterns we still don't seem to have a good grasp on that yet. 

This will save us from going back to a La Nina base state. 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Normally I roll-eyes when the social tenor in here 'memes' on a popularity for grousing with that song and dance that 'pretends we're not trolling'

But, hmm in this case,  in deference to the lack of cold in Canada, despite the favorable PNA look ... I have to say I am impressed folks are objectively/lucid to the idea in this case.

I remember opining either in this social media outlet, or emailing to some Met once ...probably both, that about 7 or 9 years I notice a difference setting in. It seemed we crossed a threshold. Our flop direction when facing modeled marginal looks started not going to -1C ... and in fact, going the other way.   Maybe it's just another under-the-radar metric in how our region expresses a warming world. Our flop tendency --> +1 ... 

I don't mean that from any empirically derived hard thing ... Just an observation/anecdotal in general.   It seems we are more and more NJ-like. I know ... I know ... desperately cobble counter arguments but ... okay.   Maybe?  But just keep in mind...climate change is happening   And if/when that change is in the 'up' direction ... ?  See ...one of the beauties - and saviors of sanity - about the cosmos is that reality still exists whether people want to believe it or not - lol... 

Anyway, the climate bands are migrating N.  And seeing whopper +PNA's over 10 day stints approaching a proper winter climo month  ... fail to load cold ... mm. I don't know...I 1946 I don't believe we necessarily had to have a -EPO to get things going...  nah.  It's endemic to modernity and where we're heading ... it's just so slow that we end up here and people don't recall a "switch" or definitive event that demarcates when a seamless boundary passed by - but it's "climate event horizon" stuff - you don't know you cross over the point of no return...  So, being a little poetically/symbolic there but still -

But, I remember saying ... it's like in the olden days we could count on a +2 C, 850 mb thermal layout in the CCB of coastal, on any given D8,  winding up isothermal blue menaces... That just doesn't seem so reliant in anymore.  It's like the "synergistic" tendency? Those ephemeral results that only exist while the storm is happening, emerged warmer now than 50 years ago... at all scales...dailies/events/ ..to large synoptic evolutions.  Patterns find the warm flop direction with increasingly less excuses in getting there..

anyway, without a direct servicing cold ... the base-line does immediately go back to 1 degree too warm for anything ... 

Oh but we do need the -EPO to get the cold really loading. The positive PNA is only going to give low level cold not the deep stuff that a -EPO provides. 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Paging Uncle Leo.

How is the 12z EPS looking?.

The biggest problem I have with this new pattern is there is no cold arctic air in Canada. You want Canada like a freezer, having a positive PNA is nice but it only temporary delivers cold down to the Eastern US. 

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is getting more ridging into the EPO domain at the end of the run. You can see that if we keep doing the retro, it may get more Nina back half of the month. 

That is a good thing would give us a -EPO. We need that -EPO for a cold load to drop into Canada. Your positive surely helps you guys out in the eastern US with some cold and would help me some too here with big storm chances but need the -EPO too. I don't see how a -EPO would lead to a return of La Nina?. I heard it's getting weaker anyways heading into a moderate one. 

Need a -EPO hopefully it comes soon. 

Any hint of a -EPO yet?. Because I find it's good too get cold into Canada. 

My point yesterday is we need the help from a negative EPO to get the cold source. Because if you don't have a cold source what good is the positive PNA really going to do?. 

Very Interesting 

Judah Cohen

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Why? So you can risk cutters?

Well doesn't help with the cold arctic air?. The distribution of it. 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

A higher PNA down the line might teleconnect to more of a decent -NAO if it happened. Those higher heights lurking in Quebec are kind of waiting for a wave-break.

A negative EPO too,   Really need that. 

26 minutes ago, frd said:

Pacific wave training getting under way soon. If you freeze the animation posted by Anthony you will see the Western ridge amp up and the East Coast trough response near day 9 to 10. I would cold expect a cold period lasting a day or two  near the very end of the month. Euro not as thrilled so far. Afternoon run coming up shortly. Keep in mind the same trends as last Fall and winter may once again prevail this upcoming cold season which are the inland runner and Midwest/ GL cutter outcomes. 

 

That looks like a reshuffle of the pattern to me as you can see it in 6z GEFS as well at the beginning of December. Look's like it maybe more sustained then just a couple of days. 

 

I don't know about that as there has been bad California wildfires in 2018 as well. That winter was a good winter if I remember correctly. 

3 hours ago, MarkO said:

Just took a peek at the Euro and GFS. Improvements in both. At least we're moving in the right direction. A white NNE Thanksgiving would be a welcome sight, even if it comes a day late. 

3 hours ago, MarkO said:

Just took a peek at the Euro and GFS. Improvements in both. At least we're moving in the right direction. A white NNE Thanksgiving would be a welcome sight, even if it comes a day late. 

I have been noticing a mute on the warming in the medium range as the time gets closer. I think it definitely has to do with the 1025 and over highs coming out of Southern Canada. That is a very good sign all we need is one of those to link but with a storm and could have a nice swfe. 

2 hours ago, LP08 said:

Last winter too were a lot of -EPO head fakes.

There saying too that the winter after this winter which seems over is going to be another strong La Nina. 

7 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Everyone knows October snow is a winter cancel

Hmm I don't think so. Years ago there was a major snowstorm here on Halloween back in 1993 however the winter that year was snowy and cold. 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The pig ain't leaving in two weeks, but I also don't think it stays in December. My educated guess. 

Why you say that it stayed all winter last year. The difference is we are getting this ugly pattern six weeks earlier than last winter. 

Yeah no cold air to be found at all. 

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I understand the frustration and hand tossing but the 12z Euro looks 

        0

Like a 2011-2012 redux    

What does it show?.

30 minutes ago, radarman said:

Euro offers some encouragement to those not wanting an 11-12 redux.   Anyone left here not wanting an 11-12 redux?

How?. Please explain. We need a negative EPO. 

Wall to wall to winter. Kidding of course whatever happened to those winters anyways?.

6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Mild down next week for a couple of days and then back to AN.

Yeah doesn't seem to want to go away the warm weather pattern. Hopefully December, January and February and March is not like this too. 

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean I’ve been in shorts for days and days.  I love winter, I really do. But this year brings challenges I feel that creep up every day. The more time passes, the more I’m ok with 11-12 redux. I don’t prefer that, but if it sucks......furnace the phucker. 

We had a 11-12 redux last winter. 

52 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the January 1976 cold was really intense.

They day you are thinking of is probably 1/11/76. It was absolutely frigid. Good storm started that night and went into the next morning...temps were mostly in the single digits and teens during the snow.

What were the temperatures like in February that year?.