leo2000

1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

An encouraging MJO forecast today.  We may possibly see an extended phase 8...

Really what shows that?. Just wondering.

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like my call for p8 (along with others here) will workout. I do agree, that the +pna won’t last long given the current state of things. We will just need to make the most of it during a short window 

I think after P8 it will most likely go to 1 then 2. Could be wrong but the stall in MJO phase 7 argues that it either goes to P8 which it is now then 1-2 or 1-2-3. It could also go to the COD. But most likely P8. 

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Better hope the PNA is correct because the -NAO. -EPO and -AO are going to be gone. Allan Huffman thinks if it does happen, it’s only a short change: 

 

Absolutely epic Winter year here. 

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing changed. Not sure what you are talking about.

Well the GEFS ensembles were showing the cold coming in around the 8th of January now its moving it until at least the 12th of January. THE GEPS has slowed down the advancing of Arctic air as well on it's ensembles. I smell a big ratter. 

Yeah the ground didn't even really freeze here yet. The temperatures have been up and down way too much. I think I might just to put a fork in this winter. Things were finally looking so much better yesterday with signs of a positive PNA. Now everything seems to be pushing back a lot. 

Take a look at the end of the 12Z EPS. What is that to my eye?. A +PNA. 

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies are pretty chilly for January. Hopefully we can start playing catch-up in the snow department. 

Any breakdown of the -PNA?. . 

3 hours ago, EasternLI said:

Super duper could be this next one if this phase 7 business keeps going thats for sure. That's what's building up all of the subsurface heat right now. At high amplitude too.

Yeah super duper El Nino means very very warm winter. 

That was a very snowy GFS 18z Op run there. Not just that but a hint of a positive PNA as well. 

Hey guys good news for us it looks like. The WPO turns sharply negative. Overnight runs of at least the GEPS and GEFS ensembles also restrengthen the negative -NAO and -AO too. The RNA pattern looks to relax as well. 

The CFS Daily 

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Leo-of all people who don’t need to worry much it’s the Newfoundlanders amongst us.  Congrats.

True, but we haven't been doing good at all here either. Newfoundland yes has in this pattern. 

Ok well it continues the big RNA pattern. 

I have noticed no one posted the Weeklies hint hint don't look lol. 

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS had some decent changes for the benefit of weenies. That moves the -PNA trough east a bit. 

When is that?.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Alot of bridge jumpers

Happens every year 

I will admit I used to be a bridge jumper on here. Not anymore trying to have more patience. I know people talk about a positive PNA a lot but things could be worse. We could have a positive NAO, positive AO, positive EPO and a positive PNA. 

The MJO looks to be finally going into Phase 8. 

Yesterday looked like the MJO was going to stall in Phase 7 now it looks like it moving along to Phase 8. 

1 hour ago, Hazey said:

Nope. No Phase = No Bueno. Otherwise it's a southern low with no cold air to work with. It's rain with some catpaws at the beginning and maybe at the end.  I'd rather punt it and save the snow on the ground for Christmas. 

No cold air?. You can clearly see the injection of cold air in Central New Brunswick like I said it wouldn't take much of a shift in the storm track to change this from being rain to snow. 

Ugh move that system more to the south and east and I would be in business. 

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

merry christmas <3 

Haha, here is the real temperatures at the surface. 

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

The EPS is definitely not like the op. But this is also why I mentioned a few issues with the pattern to look out for before Wolfie attacked me. I still feel like post Christmas is what we always have been rooting for. That hasn’t changed. 

Yeah I think the CFS got the right idea here as it keeps the SE Ridge from pumping up. 

Oh how I wish for the Christmases of Old. A good song and fits perfectly with how I am feeling. Let's get these Miller B's up and running. 

40 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

MJO looks to die before making P8, any Positive PNA won’t last long

I guess you haven't seen this tweet. 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Any +PNA (if it even happens) will be transient IMO. There is zero support for anything other than transient +PNA this winter, BUT….when and if one pops, that’s the time for an east-coast snowstorm. We watch….

That depends on how long the MJO stays in phases 7 then to 8. 

What is that? lol. A blue nose bomber.