leo2000

All I want for Christmas is a nuke Blizzard!

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

18z gfs

Yeah 18z gfs looks yucky lol.  Here comes the Grinch lol. 

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The warm up next week, but I don't think the cold lasts more than a couple of weeks, either.

If we can get big jabs to the PV the pattern should last longer than just a couple of weeks. Also if the MJO gets struck in phases 7-8-1 and stays there. I really like the look of this cold just before Christmas. All credit goes to Bamwx.

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Agree. Its transient.

The cold pattern is transient?. 

You gotta lock the CFS Monthly if your a cold and snow lover. 

I don't know what is so wrong about a -PNA pattern. I am more worried about a +EPO , But that +EPO should be going away. I seen winters where the cold goes from the West Coast to the East Coast with a combo of -EPO and -PNA. We can have a trough west and trough east is what I am saying. 

3 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

The +EPO is not letting the snow try to fall east of the Mississippi, I've seen this case before, December 1990 is a strong analog.

Wait until the 2nd half of the month.  

The thing is this not the only December its been like this. Last December was like this too. Also the year before that one as well. 

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Exactly. There are going to be periods like that this winter....that much has always been clear. I just didn't expect quite so much of that in December.

Well with so much of it happening now maybe just maybe there won't be any more of it until April. But realistically, there will probably be another period later January. Then finally February-March it stays cold. 

40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember a few years ago someone was arguing why a cold phase mjo wasn’t actually going to be cold using a bunch of really specific variables. I remember I got annoyed because I asked “well when those 18 things are all true what mjo phase do we want if 8 is no good and got no answer”. Maybe this will be another example of how the mjo works except when it doesn’t. 

Here's the rub though there usually is a lag time before we feels the effects of phase 7. 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

CFS gone crazy. We can dream. Avg to above avg precip too.

I will gladly take that December 20th into at least January 19th. It also makes sense given we will be in a strong MJO phase 7 wave by then. 

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

While the AO, NAO, PNA are all heading in the wrong direction (if u like cold and snow), the MJO is still heading to phase 7 at decent amplitude.

Per discussions on this board not sure on the effect it will have, but if it does it will be a good indication of a solid EOM.

I would think it will have a big impact. Especially knowing the AAM is going on the rise too. 

I hope you feel good soon Jerry!

Oh yes hehe

Looks like MJO is heading strongly into phase 7-8 if it can stay in those phases all winter. I would be happy. 

People keep mentioning how we are overdue for a ratter before but, we are really overdue for a wall to wall winter cold and snowy winter. 

What is going on?. Never seen such a difference in the EPS and GEFS ensembles models. It must have to do with the fact that the EPS has a tough time figuring out the EPO region. All credit goes to Bamwx on twitter. 

Just yesterday the GEFS was looking like this early yesterday. 

Then midday looked like this

Dr. Judah Cohen is pulling the plug in Winter so that must mean the opposite will happen.  My oh my what does this imply?. Possible Ural blocking make hit the PV hard?. 

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree but I expect that to be the case often this season, especially the first half.

Wasn't it like that last Winter too?

Really need to get rid of that positive EPO. We can still work with a -PNA but please get rid of that positive EPO. 

5 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Death Star

 

It's been at the very end of the Euro Ensembles three runs in a row up hasn't moved up in time. It was mentioned that the GEPS has also supporting Euro Ensembles but the last run has been backing away from a full blown torch. The GEFS keeps getting colder in the long range. 

The skill level of the Weeklies have been terrible. Sure we have a La Nina but it's becoming more east based that should argue for a better Pacific more of a negative -EPO, +PNA. 

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nah

Sadly, the GEFS has been outperforming the EPS/CMC in the long range this fall season. We shall see if it's correct here as well. Hopefully, the first week of December is just a Pacific shuffling that ushers in a -EPO, +PNA pattern. 

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's an ugly end to the OP Euro run with a nice one-eyed pig setting up over the Bering Region...hopefully that changes again.

19 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s interesting how the strongest negative anomalies are moving east as they surface, which could be a really good sign for a more favorable structure (more east based, basin wide right now) for winter taking hold as the La Niña continues to strengthen in the near term. 

What are the implications for the Northeast US when we get a east based basin wide La Nina?.

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Two runs in a row with -EPO in the operational Euro' extended.

That aside, seems in general the operational GFS/Euro are coalescing around the colder vision, perhaps sooner than the last 10 days of the month, but hold pending future consistency.

Nothing historic, but the 850 mb metric suppresses S of the OV, entering week 2 ( 160+ hrs), and stays there, whilst Canadian reservoir replaces warm with cool anomalies. 

With a neutral-neg PNA flipping modes to neutral-positive during the period, and seeing more AB circulation type spanning the N-Pac in the EPS and GFS means, that sends a cooling signal into the Canadian Shield to match above.  ..surprising agreement actually.. 

It may be setting the table for a series or singular event of more significance between the 18th and 24th.. That hyper bomb in the GFS is less likely veracious but... I do think it is a synoptic instability suggestion  .. quasi Archembaultian deal. 

I suggest there is above 'normal model error' probability for something during that period - obviously it's going to challenge the tolerance thresholds LOL . ..ho man..  Sometimes we hate doing this extended lead threat assessing...cuz ya get all lubed up during the plot development but the movie is eternally boring waiting for it to happen.

One thing we should bear in mind as the month ages on... The flow is manifesting fast tendencies ...(here we go again) a characterization that has plagued most winters in the last 10 years. Separate discussion topic as to why, but... speed saturation, with over-packed isohypses counts, stresses deterministics at all temporal scales.  I think - in part - that is why there is a tendency for the models to over market.  

 

 

Let's hope the -EPO holds this time.