leo2000

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

This torch stretch doesn’t really have an indication of the winter. That’s like saying 4 days of 90s in May mean a furnace summer. 
Long range actually tries for a bit of a -NAO, but Pacific is still crappy. Some signs on the EPS that some dateline ridging was trying to build, but very subtle. My guess is any real change waits until December. 

I will gladly wait until December. 

Looks like winter is over with its official. IO indian dipole driving this warmth that we are experiencing now all throughout December, January as well as a very strong Strat vortex. 

37 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Oh I am in full agreement on your point here. My post was in reference to the tropical pacific warm pool. Which can drive a favorable winter pattern for us. Instead, the models are locked in on the Indian ocean. Which can drive a terrible winter pattern for us. But the current state of the QBO gives support to what the models are showing IRT that. As far as the North Pacific warm pool. My thinking is that it's more of a indicator of what the pattern had been. Not necessarily a driver of much. Maybe more of a modulator? I just feel like those anomalies can be bullied around by what the tropics are doing as that is where the most energy (heat) resides. I feel like this winter is going below average snow maybe way below, much above average temp. Not seeing much for winter fans to be excited about TBH.

Winter is over before it even started. 

I know there has been some talk about the vortex becoming very strong possibly coupling with the troposphere. https://twitter.com/PvForecast/status/1325766530479632385/photo/1. Credit goes to Pvforecast. 

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That was Larry Cosgrove’s winter forecast blowing up. 

I hope not.

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The thing is though polar forecast models especially long range are not very reliable. 

Incredible snowstorm here expecting 24 plus inches of snow here. 

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Off hour run. Toss it. 

...it is ugly though. Undoes all the improvement as goes right back to a neverending shutout look.  But like I’ve said the gefs is more prove to run to run shifts. Unless it has multiple runs or the eps heads that way I’m not sweating it. 

the 18 GEFS disagrees with the neverending shutout look of the 18 gfs op model. 

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS continues to show the escape hatch opportunity within 2 weeks. Another run compressing atl flow with the scand/uk ridge pressing poleward. If the aluetian ridge simultaneously pushes polward then we have a convoluted HL block that will rearrange the flow in the east. I like this panel a lot...

 

ETA: EPS is going the same direction just not as quickly. It has been ever so slowly trending quicker with an improved Atl/height pattern in the east. If this holds in time then we're back in the game in under 2 weeks

I had a good feeling this was going to happen!. 

Just now, OSUmetstud said:

But what about the nao????

I am sorry I am still learning the nao isn't really about here for snowstorms especially a negative one?.

46 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Some nice trends here on the last eps slp means. 

Very nice indeed!

A gradient must be setting up as it looks cold here in the long range. Which keeps us away from the effects of the SE ridge. 

The CFS and GEFS isn't seeing this super torch that the EPS is on. Thanks largely to the polar vortex blocking and muting a lot of this pacific puke from entering. 

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

GEFS too

Yeah before Christmas too. 

45 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

 

Not in my area lol. 

Doesn't seem to have any real support from the GEFS as well as the CFS weekly and the GEPS. 

3 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Problem here is there really is no  NA blocking and that impressive 50-50 races away into the NA. That is the general problem when there is no legit block. Transient higher h5 heights in the NAO domain do not qualify as a block. It can work,  but It is temporary and requires damn near perfect timing.

3 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

If we get perfect track/blocked storms that are all rain i'm gonna be pissed. The Pac onslaught is real on this panel. Above freezing 850s all the way to the Yukon... wtf man

Not in my area lol. 

Not a betting man here. But looking at things looks like the Pna isn't so negative more like neutral and the EPO is somewhat positive going though into neutral to negative. NAO and AO going sharply negative. Last year at this time it was very different. I know some are saying that we are heading into a super torch for Christmas. I think it's possible that the Euro model is not seeing the blocking that the gfs and other models are seeing. The Euro has been performing very badly the last couple of months. 

So the Nam state is what is going to kill December for being a true winter month like its suppose to be?. Just like last year rinse and repeat. 

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

It's another cutter, pretty simple as we have had them since December in this remarkablely stable winter pattern.

Winter pattern?. I think winter has become late spring this year. 

Winter Cancelled it's all over. 80's wasn't so bad at all. 

https://www.upi.com/Archives/1984/01/11/1984s-first-snowstorm-blasts-East-Coast/5813442645200/

17 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nice coastal day 10 on the euro

Be out on the lookout for this particular date somebody might get slammed around that time frame strong support from the CMC as well. 

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Uncle Leo is getting desperate. I wonder how angry he is about dry humping the strat warming twitter folks.

Lol, at least there is coastal storms showing up in the LR. A lot better than a few days ago. A basin wide weak el Nino isn't working so I see no problem with a La Nina like pattern. As long as I can get some possible blizzards out of it. 

Finally some light at the end of the tunnel. Some coastal storms finally showing up in the LR it's better than them showing just more and more cutters. I have to imagine that at least one of these are going to materialize. 

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They honestly haven’t been bad. The Pacific overall has been good last few weeks. I’ll take a good Pacific over any other index. That looks to continue. It hasn’t been perfect and hence why some of these hug or cut just west,  but man it wouldn’t take much to change that. 

Some? All the storms that have been showing up have been cutting and hugging. Need some Miller B's

We have had great patterns without a good Atlantic before so what exactly is causing this snowless pattern with endless cutters?.  A bad Pacific? The MJO that keeps going into the warm phases?.