leo2000

Nice map, also looks like the MJO is going into phase 5 which is good for cold weather here in December. This is around the 23rd. However, we have to watch a possible vortex displacement even a complete split. This would likely halt this warm pattern has is coming up. 

Say goodbye to the pig.  That's can't be a negative EPO showing up is it now? Plus we don't have a raging positive NAO too worry about either like last year. 

Forecasts of 500mb Height Teleconnection Indices, from ESRL/PSD GEFS Reforecast2 Data

Well I respect Orh Wxman, and Coaster WX expert opinions on this. I am leaning more toward Isotherm's own expert opinion when he says that the EPS has a bias of overdoing geopotential heights over the East. As well as overestimating the low-magnitude MJO signal  and goes on to say that the ""GFS based guidance will once again prove superior in the LR". Another expert opinion I agree with is PB GFI as well as SnowyHibbo.

Here says 

This is the last example,  but if we ignore the models past bias we will make the same mistakes in the future.

The model does hit forecasts, I am not saying that but this corrected from a 500 that is a lot worse than where the negatives are now forecast in the EP on its new 11 to 15 

Again the problem is washing troughs out on the EC.

When I see the new 11 - 15 I don't buy it. 

Mike Ventrice has a bias against snow and cold . Plus we know that the EPS has a bias toward a positive EPO too. Oh where did that warm pattern go lol. 

The GEPS agrees with the GEFS 

32 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Yep. I was basically putting a fork in it...but now I'm intrigued for here at least. 

How is your blizzard coming along?

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Let's move that trough off AK a little closer to the Aleutians.  That smells of fast flow/late development and suppression to this amateur weenie.

Look's pretty juicy to me. 

Now that is better by the way it's not just the 384 hour either. Much improved December 18 too onward. 

It looks like Saint John's Newfoundland will get hammered tomorrow with lots of snow and lots of wind. 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

40s and bare ground vs 50s? Sign me up then. 

Now now you know you love this song very much. 

The Weeklies look very nice by the way. 

The latest GEFS 18Z continues the trend of retrograding the Goa Trough. 

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks warm for you Uncle Leo.

Yes I know that but the blue anomalies are coming up from the south. We don't need it super cold anyways for snow just normal temperatures are good enough before Christmas. 

What a way to run a warm up looks like a few days. Looks like the cold comes back before Christmas. 

3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Where do people get the ECMWF mjo plots?

 

Here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ecmf.shtml



The overnight  EPS echoes however the recent GEFS models. They are not at all bullish on the warm pattern any more than just a few days before the ridge signal keeps moving out east of the Maritimes. The pattern looks to be running out of steam as the GEFS models show higher heights over Western North America. 

EURO goes to the round with a  weak sauce wave:

EMON is like EURO

Japs (JMA) say we support you Americans and GEFS:



All credit goes to amugs from 33andrain as well as Jack Sillin

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

How is that muted? It wasn’t ever  a torch look,  but that’s flooding the US with milder weather.

Because, I don't see those yellow orange colors over my area and your area but more westward. I thought maybe that means a bit of a mute.  

Wow now it looks like the pattern relaxation may indeed be muted. We will have to see if this is a real trend or not. 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I said that before, but people think relaxation equals torch. As many have said it does not. It’s a break from what we’ve endured. It’s a pattern that could feature 50-60 and also snow. It’s just not a prolonged wintry look. If people looked at the hemispheric signals that the weeklies and now all ensembles show, they would have seen that. It’s coming. Fact not opinion. Whether it’s 7 days or 14+ days is debatable. I think this is a 2 week thing potentially, but it could be less. 

It's looking like a torch now couldn't get better teleconnections for a full blown torch than what I seen today. 

I hear the El Nino has turn into a basin wide event. Even HM on Twitter is confirming that now from a Modoki El Nino. 

Here are the weeklies that I got from another forum. All credit goes out PB GFI. 

As you can see what was once feared to be a pig is a somewhat of a moderation but that time period it shrinking as well as temperatures return back to normal temperatures by week 4. 

The warmth is still way out in lunchland. 

16 hours ago, Hazey said:

Leo looks about to be crushed. That gale center to his east is going beast mode.

Sure was a beast lots of very heavy wet snow like cement blocks. 

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Like I said earlier today. It can only get better from the current LR look. EPS isn't an ambiguous or washed out mean... it's crappy with a clear message for now.

The Pig +EPO has been stucked in this timeframe for several days now. 

Don't worry folks an epic cage match is coming up 

 

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I always thought it was real... delayed but not denied, which in this case, isn’t a good thing.

Weak Nino is bread and butter here, but this is what could produce a rat.

Hopefully we aren’t waiting until late March for it to move out.

Or May lol

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Whatever keeps you in those footy pajamas.

It was saying that last time in weeks 3-4.