eyewall

From Raleigh this morning at surise

Looks like we will end with about 2 inches on the colder surfaces in Raleigh. Pics tomorrow. I love that I was wrong in my prediction.

Looks like it is winding down in Raleigh. We will come in on the low end of the range.

By oakwood

Probably passing an inch here in Raleigh.

First 0.1" down in Raleigh. Snowing quite hard now.

Back to mostly snow here in the Mordecai area of Raleigh

Rain now in Raleigh

First flakes in Raleigh at 1:55pm where I am. Mixed with IP.

Lock that one in . Nice frontogenisis

Most likely the sanitarium will become much more active.

I know I will be ready to position myself in any potential jackpot zone should anything materialize.

The mean has 1-2 inches across NC

12Z GFES ENS members:

Yeah basically. We need that energy to dive in farther WSW as when it finally comes in toward Fri it is too late unless you are halfway to the Azores.

Yep basically back to square one at that point.

I know I am just expressing frustration. Anyway if you want a little more it is obviously a very suppressed run with the strong high nosing south and confluence in the upper levels. There just isn't the amplification to unleash a power house low nor the strong shortwave energy. Your looking at some weak disturbances feeding off strong out vorticity to the south of the confluence that would result in a weak "southern slider". That is what this run shows. Is it a hair better, I suppose, but nowhere close to anything substantial on 12z op run. Additional note: There is a better looking vort max that tries to makes it way into the picture on Fri but it would spawn a low too far off to the east well off shore.

Well it was fun while it lasted.

Most depressing winter in history to be sure. It is almost impossible to get a win in this pattern. The 2/8 event was a lottery win for those who lucked out.

Typically the area on a sounding where the temp is between -10C and -20C. You want to see if that region is saturated or not. This is the temp range for optimal snow growth and the microphysics involved in that.

Yeah true. The point is if anything actually materializes I plan on being there for it.

I will be headed down I-40 if anything remotely close to that is actually expected to verify.

If there was a '93 redux this entire board will fill a hotel in Boone ;).

No way to know but the bugs will be awful.

Yeah it is going to take a lot of time for the sting to wear off. The prospect of the summer ahead doesn't help.