eyewall

1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

I don't understand the whining. This winter was supposed to be a wall-to-wall torch. Let's just be thankful we are not looking at a strong SE ridge and 75 degrees everyday. The pattern could be a lot worse.

I think it is about zeroing out on snow given the potential even if it isn't 75F everyday. I went to the mountains on Christmas morning to enjoy that on the likely chance we get nothing in Raleigh this year.

There is no doubt it looks like complete crap and cutter city on the GFS. I was pretty confident RDU would zero out this year and so far that seems to be on track.

I didn't take a lot of shots as I was busy just enjoying it but here are a few (also some of the best shots out there were hard to get without getting the car stuck). Remember to click each photo to see it in full:
 

It was definitely a fun day. It didn't stop snowing most of the time I was up there today. It reminded me of VT upslope action. We even saw flurries when we left Raleigh early this morning. 

My wife got to see a white Christmas for the first time this morning as we went to Banner Elk, NC in the mountains. It felt just like a solid Vermont upslope event with temps between 8-13F and periodic moderate to heavy high ratio snow. 

Loving every minute of this in Banner Elk!

We plan on going to Boone then toward Banner Elk early tomorrow morning. Either way looks pretty good 3K+

I miss being in Vermont for Christmas but hope you all have a great holiday. My wife has never seen a white Christmas so we are headed up to Banner Elk NC early Christmas morning to change that (likely at least several fresh inches up there behind this big front). Before that we may see tors here tomorrow.

It will be quite a wild day. The NAM brings that supercell composite pretty far west.

Looks like we are on to take a quick trip to Banner Elk for Christmas morning

6 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

It should be an interesting 24 hours in model world as they attempt to resolve this complicated mess. I am a bit concerned about flash freezing as temperatures rapidly crash all the way to the Valley floor Thursday afternoon/evening. My hunch is we may see a couple of hours of heavier rates Thursday evening with a lull late night before NWFS develops into Christmas morning. Perhaps another round of heavier snow showers Christmas Day as the cold upper trough with some vort action moves across the Mountains.  The meso guidance should be interesting to monitor on Thursday. 

we plan on a drive to Banner Elk or so.

I am wondering if there will still be any snow falling up there on Christmas morning. Either way it would be nice to see some on the ground.

We plan on coming up Christmas morning if it looks promising.

40 minutes ago, yotaman said:

I have lived here since 1996 and before that in Virginia Beach since 1973 and have never had a white Christmas. Missed it in 1989 by 50 miles and by a few hours in 2010. Still hoping that one year I will see it but never hold my breath for it.

I have seen them outside of NC and once in North Carolina. It was Christmas morning 1999 in Southern Pines/Pinehurst when a surprise inch fell from an ocean effect streamer off of southeastern VA.

Outside the mountains, Christmas snow isn't happening.

This 30's and rain crap is getting old fast. I feel like we have blown a few opportunities already.

Bet on the severe but not the snow for the NC Piedmont. This is a classic cold chasing the moisture scenario and 90% of the time that is a losing proposition. I want snow just as bad as anyone but it is not in the cards.

Those totals in southern VT are unbelievable. I can't imagine seeing an additional 10-15 inches on top of what I got in the Pi Day storm when I was in Winooski (my first and only 30 inch event). I miss it terribly. I am likely to zero out down here in a La Nina year.

On  both the GFS and Euro it is cold chasing the moisture with it primarily being a FROPA. That is the kiss of death for the NC Piedmont. It almost NEVER works out. The GFS tries to develop a surface low but it is barely there.

I fully expect to zero out on snow in Raleigh this year so cold for Christmas will have to do.

11 hours ago, jjwxman said:

Merry Christmas Everyone!


.

That will be a severe threat within a few days Obviously we have to get out of fantasy range to get excited.

It looks like the ZR will bust in most areas outside the mountains and maybe even for most in them.

I just don't see those ice amounts verifying when a lot of places will start the event at 31F or so. This airmass marginal and the latent heat process will kill it fairly quickly.

Well if I was going to chase I would have to go all the way to PA for the max (which is what I want to go for). I also think it would strain my budget right now a bit. I will unfortunately have to enjoy the cold rain down here. I fully expect to zero out in Raleigh this year so I have to find an opportunity somewhere within reason before winter ends.

Just now, PivotPoint said:

Good to see you on here. I use to creep all the time in the Northern NE Winter thread. Always enjoyed reading your stuff. My avatar pic is side-country at Stowe. Sad that I'm not allowed to up to VT this year.

Yeah I am not either. My record single snowfall occurred up there of 30 inches in the Pi Day storm.