eyewall

Mostly sleet with a little snow mixed in the Banana Belt aka Raleigh

12 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Didn't some of you nc peeps see about 3" of snow 10 days ago? Yes, I know it melted quickly, but there is no denying it fell from the sky

You had to go to the VA border counties for that.

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Did the Euro just give us the greatest board-wide win run in history?

Congrats Boone and Virginia!

December 2002 is a reasonable comparison although that ended up a blizzard where I was at the time in the NYC Metro. They won't see much this go around.

9 hours ago, JoshM said:

Miller time? You probably don’t even want to hear the word miller

In Raleigh its Old Tuffy!

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

LOL!!  Once again I think you stole this post from 2020,2019,2018,2017......

Do you have this saved as a favorite or something?  I almost feel sorry for you over there in the screw zone.  (Almost)  

We got a good one in December 2018

I just officially checked out of this event. Not sure when there will be another chance if there is at all. The wait is always the hardest part after a brutal blow like this.

NWS RAH seems to feel it will effectively be a non event for Raleigh itself. Around 0.1 inches and a inch or so of snow then rain. That seems the most reasonable as model output on ZR is almost always overdone. Enjoy the storm for those out west. Imma head out for now.

4 minutes ago, NC DataDude said:

So.. Seeing .44 ice in JoCo land (I-95 central NC)..  Are there any calculations on how quickly snow/sleet/ice buildup is removed/melted due to regular cold rain after the surface temps rise above freezing?  

Sleet typically endures longer than snow if there is a lot of it.

The hard truth from RAH:

A few showers may develop across the
western Piedmont Saturday evening, then widespread precipitation
will spread across the region Saturday night through early Sunday
night. Models are coming into better agreement with the details, and
confidence is increasing that this will be less of a snow event and
more of a freezing rain/rain event. All areas will be below zero
when precipitation begins to fall Saturday night, and most areas
north of the Sandhills and southern Piedmont will likely see snow
where it develops, while southern areas have a rain/snow mix. Then
by early Sunday morning, a warm nose develops as the the possibility
of freezing rain/sleet spreads north to just south of the Triangle
by noon. By late Sunday afternoon, areas away from the Triad will
likely have rain, while freezing rain becomes the dominant
precipitation type across the northwest. This warm nose will lower
snowfall amounts across most areas, even the Triad. Accumulating ice
will become the greater hazard in the afternoon, and with wind gusts
around 25 mph, could easily break weak icy tree branches. A dry slot
will likely cut off moisture and end precipitation quickly late
Sunday evening into early Sunday night. A Winter Storm Watch may be
issued for portions of central NC either tonight or Friday morning.
Highs Sunday will range from near 30 far NW to near 50 far SE.

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Really unfortunate for Raleigh. Which is ironic because a lot of places with lesser snow climo will cash in.

Thanks for the trolling effort there. We are well aware.

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

which one dominates?

Probably a fairly even split between Ice and Rain.

15 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

For Raleigh that will be Brief snow/sleet-->Ice-->Rain-->Dryslot-->Missed by the wrap around deform band to the NW

50 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I think some folks are hung up on wanting huge snow totals and not thinking how big of an impact 3 to 5 inches of snow, freezing rain, and sleet will have. 

Which will all be wiped clean when we go to 40 and rain. I am not sure we will see 3-5 inches either before the mix.

Yep its looking like a done deal for Raleigh. Maybe next year we can reel in a 6+ event.

4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

I am throwing in the towel here in the RDU area. Rain will wash away any winter precipitation. Good luck everyone. 

Yeah the writing is on the wall. It isn't our storm. Maybe next year.

Awful run for us in Raleigh. Any wintry precip definitely goes to rain in that scenario. I think the fat lady is warming up.

After that disaster strikes and it tracks right to Raleigh:

Coastal takes hold somewhere just inland in SC:

The GEFS won't save Raleigh on this run but here are the members:

2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

This was almost too easy.  A map we have seen dozens of times.  Are you sure you just didn't change the dates Jeremy?  

Looks legit.  I think most here would take those outcomes.

Ahahah yeah for sure. Wish we could push the big totals farther east but I will settle for glazed tree shots I guess LOL. (I am in the bargaining phase of the grief cycle here).