eyewall

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Too bad all the fun in the Carolina’s is coming at night. Definitely serious now-casting. Some people going to wake up with bare dirt and scream “bust” while others 20 miles away have 4” will be screaming “overperformer.” I think it’s boom or bust, light rates are not going to cut it with borderline BL temps like they did last week and if you get fringed by one of those bands you’re not going to get much or anything. Think summertime thunderstorms if you want to know how this will play out

Agreed. It will be no more than a flizzard for many while a lucky few cash in.

6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yes please!

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And of course it hits a wall for us lol

46 minutes ago, MHCWEATHER said:

What are the dynamics that dissipate the lee side energy and leave Wake bare ‘n bent? #newbs

It is basically a mid-level dry slot that will be the problem. Wherever that sets up, you will have a screw zone.

Yeah without sneaking a meso band in here it will be almost a non-event for Raleigh but it is what it is.

It is looking more and more like Raleigh will be stuck in the screw zone between the late phasing coastal and the lee side low.

While we sip our Maalox this morning I finally posted some video I took during the last event:

As it stands if that lee side meso low continues to appear I will have to factor it in to my forecast update for sure. This is not an easy one.

On 1/25/2022 at 8:23 PM, powderfreak said:

Great midweek afternoon on the hill.

If there's one big difference from last winter, it's that midweek feels like midweek again. When people need to physically report to work and school Monday through Friday, it definitely is a different dynamic.  Last winter was steady crowd levels 7 days a week, no real ebb or flow.  This season it's big weekends and light volume Monday through Friday.

 

I loved when I used to have Mondays off when I lived up there. I would have smuggs almost to myself. There would still be visible areas of corduroy at last chair.

The take away from that GFS run is Raleigh jackpots.

Wow this is going to be a meltdown in every subforum!

The NAM has been on its own.

Just now, PantherJustin said:

I’ve seen that video a few times…. Dumped quite a bit up in NE NC

Yep. I took that back then.

March 2010 Mesoband:

RAH makes no mention of the lee side low, but that is an interesting prospect. They do mention f-gen banding could surprised some people though.

Cape Cod weenies will be happy otherwise it is a toaster sale.

Got to love the central NC screw zone here:

So close yet so far away.

18z GFS rolling now

1 minute ago, sarcean said:

I remember being up in Snowshoe, WV  for the Jan 2016 blizzard when they got three feet of snow. The first foot was great...it was after the  second that it started getting ridiculous. 

Yeah I loved every minute of the one 30 inch event I witnessed in Vermont. It is nuts.

$297 on Kayak.com for direct JetBlue to BOS from RDU in case anyone was wondering.
 

It is looking like 1 step above a non-event for central NC overall at this point.
 

The Euro ensemble mean should make the NYC folks feel better. As for NC, well not so much:

11 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If anyone needs to see a board wide meltdown head over to the NYC sub forum right now

Yeah they are whining about 6-10 and we are happy to hang on to a dusting lol.