eyewall

I would call it snizzle here for now.

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'm not sold on anything that noticeable for Wake with tonight's first round.  Cold chasing moisture and it looks like limited moisture by the time temperatures get low enough for anything appreciable.

As for the main round tomorrow, it's going to be really close with how far west the main precipitation gets...  It is going to be painful for someone...  
I'm going 1-3" across Wake.

I agree, the steady shield is almost through already.

27 minutes ago, marsman said:

Someone reported snow/graupel in downtown Raleigh on mPING. Visible on RadarScope.

I haven't seen that but also I was not looking either so I will keep an eye out.

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Would not shock me to hit that tomorrow. Gut feeling ratios will bring us to the promised land 

Yeah it will be interesting to see how much frozen sneaks in tonight before the main round.

3+ is warning criteria for Raleigh. I'll take it.

It was only a 1/2 inch on average lower than the 12z run. The overall coverage area was fairly consistent. It essentially held serve for this region. It increased a bit just NE.

2 minutes ago, Midnight Moon said:

Transition period was too slow compared to modeling.

They haven't been to the school of NC weather with cold chasing the moisture.

10 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

Paywalled. Can you give the general idea?

Euro is not as good with phasing the vortmaxes compared to the 12z GFS run but it is close. Again that is the real key to this whole thing.

2 minutes ago, EverythingisEverything said:

How is it looking for SE VA?

Still in good shape there.

yep much better interaction of our vortmaxes

1 minute ago, wake4est said:

Boom?

It is banking on two rounds with this area on the southern edge of the first and back in the main round as well.

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The dam has burst and the NW trend has hit

Here is to hoping as we anxiously await the 12z suite.

5 minutes ago, marsman said:

Sorry folks, parks closed. The moose out front should of told ya'.

The moose says you're closed. I say you're open!

Raleigh salvaging a good winter is on life support at this point that is for sure. It has been tough to be constantly shafted in a solid pattern.

Note the small differences in the vort max over TN along with the southern piece of energy. These subtle differences are going to make or break this event IMO.

Interestingly, the GFS brings the main round of snow late Friday night/early Sat morning on the 6z run. Honestly I still don't think there is a good handle on all these little shortwaves and how they will interact with the front. I don't think any forecast an be one of high confidence and bust potential is high everywhere in either direction.

6z GFS:

3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Even is the models trend back with more QPF do you really think that Western Wake County will only be in the 1-2 inch range?

Right now this is a distinct possibility yes.

1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

That’s not eyewalls map, another met made it. Signature in bottom right. 
 

That’s the most realistic solution. And even if the bigger totals of earlier runs come close to verifying, putting places like CLT in the 1-2” covers all a met needs to. If they get 4” great! If Mets say 4” and CLT gets 1” it’s the biggest bust in the 21st century….

That is my real name

Call Map as of 7:45pm

It is definitely improvement over 12z. Not a huge NW shift but also an expansion of the QPF.