eyewall

A part of why the last system had such profound mid-level warming which helped was the SST anomalies. The Atlantic is quite warm,. Good for amping up storms with the baroclinicity but bad for those rooting against profound warm noses. That is a factor to remember with these next ones too:

The Euro doesn't really separate the two waves where as the GFS does. The Euro develops a single low and bombs it out as phasing occurs. The GFS has a more distinct separation and delays the second vortmax a bit resulting in the weak impulse first with the FROPA followed by the main wave late in the weekend. Of course as mentioned, we know the strength of the SE ridge will play a key role here as well.

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

tempted to start a sub-thread for the Raleigh-East crew. I don’t think we’re all rooting for the same thing. 

I am just as salty as anyone right now after the miss with this last system but that will just be a mess if we try that I think. We can bitch and moan in the Sanitarium. They have a coffee mug there with my name on it.

Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

A few more runs and that ice and snow will be in western NC and Tennessee. Has the NW movement in the models started?

Hard to know but that was looking too similar to today. Not good.

LOL more ice with that next system. I'll pass.

5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Although many here predicted this 

That is true

Seems like the ice storm busted for most due to sleet.

It looks like sleet saved a lot of people from a major ice event in the Piedmont.

33 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

You know that it will either be a small event or nothing at all. Since moving to the Raleigh area I haven't seen over 2 inches of snow. That is 3 years so far. 

It is very hard to get a significant event here that is for sure. A 6 inch+ event happens probably a couple of times a decade at best.

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Above freezing now, 32.9. Finished with a coating of snow and sleet and at 0.25” of ice, maybe a hair more

Yeah that makes sense. Somewhere around 0.2 to 0.25 across the city. Is melting out now. We came close to losing power here.

From the ground:
 

Probably changing to plain rain now but this was Raleigh on a risky drone flight with wind gusts pushing it hard:
 

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

You must be downtown. We’re still sleeting in North Raleigh. Has limited the accrual.

yeah very close to downtown

Raleigh just after noon

Icing up solidly here now

14 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Really?  In Wake county?  Not according to radar.  zr still east of I95

ZR mostly with a little sleet mixed in here in Raleigh itself.

They are upping projected winds in the NC Piedmont because of obs farther upstream. Maybe some 50 mph gusts later.

The scene this morning lol. We will rebuild! #RaleighStrong

Sleet/ZR in Raleigh itself 

I am not getting my hopes up until this gets closer after how the last couple of chances have gone LOL.

All sleet now. We are following the typical Raleigh model. A few flakes at first and now all sleet. We will see a brief period of ZR then rain and 38 this afternoon.

For those wondering, the ratio for sleet is about 4:1 I believe .

Mostly sleet with a little snow mixed in the Banana Belt aka Raleigh

12 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Didn't some of you nc peeps see about 3" of snow 10 days ago? Yes, I know it melted quickly, but there is no denying it fell from the sky

You had to go to the VA border counties for that.

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Did the Euro just give us the greatest board-wide win run in history?

Congrats Boone and Virginia!