eyewall

The hard truth from RAH:

A few showers may develop across the
western Piedmont Saturday evening, then widespread precipitation
will spread across the region Saturday night through early Sunday
night. Models are coming into better agreement with the details, and
confidence is increasing that this will be less of a snow event and
more of a freezing rain/rain event. All areas will be below zero
when precipitation begins to fall Saturday night, and most areas
north of the Sandhills and southern Piedmont will likely see snow
where it develops, while southern areas have a rain/snow mix. Then
by early Sunday morning, a warm nose develops as the the possibility
of freezing rain/sleet spreads north to just south of the Triangle
by noon. By late Sunday afternoon, areas away from the Triad will
likely have rain, while freezing rain becomes the dominant
precipitation type across the northwest. This warm nose will lower
snowfall amounts across most areas, even the Triad. Accumulating ice
will become the greater hazard in the afternoon, and with wind gusts
around 25 mph, could easily break weak icy tree branches. A dry slot
will likely cut off moisture and end precipitation quickly late
Sunday evening into early Sunday night. A Winter Storm Watch may be
issued for portions of central NC either tonight or Friday morning.
Highs Sunday will range from near 30 far NW to near 50 far SE.

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Really unfortunate for Raleigh. Which is ironic because a lot of places with lesser snow climo will cash in.

Thanks for the trolling effort there. We are well aware.

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

which one dominates?

Probably a fairly even split between Ice and Rain.

15 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

For Raleigh that will be Brief snow/sleet-->Ice-->Rain-->Dryslot-->Missed by the wrap around deform band to the NW

50 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I think some folks are hung up on wanting huge snow totals and not thinking how big of an impact 3 to 5 inches of snow, freezing rain, and sleet will have. 

Which will all be wiped clean when we go to 40 and rain. I am not sure we will see 3-5 inches either before the mix.

Yep its looking like a done deal for Raleigh. Maybe next year we can reel in a 6+ event.

4 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

I am throwing in the towel here in the RDU area. Rain will wash away any winter precipitation. Good luck everyone. 

Yeah the writing is on the wall. It isn't our storm. Maybe next year.

Awful run for us in Raleigh. Any wintry precip definitely goes to rain in that scenario. I think the fat lady is warming up.

After that disaster strikes and it tracks right to Raleigh:

Coastal takes hold somewhere just inland in SC:

The GEFS won't save Raleigh on this run but here are the members:

2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

This was almost too easy.  A map we have seen dozens of times.  Are you sure you just didn't change the dates Jeremy?  

Looks legit.  I think most here would take those outcomes.

Ahahah yeah for sure. Wish we could push the big totals farther east but I will settle for glazed tree shots I guess LOL. (I am in the bargaining phase of the grief cycle here).

A rough go at a call map for now:

For RDU the dry slot cuts off the ice after a solid hit but the backside deform band misses to the NW.  Another few ticks east and we could get into that.

It is a little better this run. Puts the ice corridor right up US-1:

 

The coastal crosses over the Sounds rather than up 95. This would mean a front end thump to mix, perhaps a dry slot and maybe catching a little on the back end:

It is the ICON but it transfers to a coastal low in the deep south with the new primary taking hold off Savannah/Charleston. The old low weakens south of Columbus, GA

NAM puts the baroclinic zone right where you want it and where it makes the most sense normally:

I am also a photographer so cold rain doesn't exactly make for great weather shots lol. ZR can if there is a enough on the trees though.

4 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Agreed. Around here i'm guessing we'll see a little front end snow that annoyingly changes to sleet earlier than we would want, ultimately changing to freezing rain for much longer than we'd like, followed by rain at the end that nobody likes.

That is the problem is we go over to 38F and rain ultimately. Also the warm nose almost always overperforms compared to the models so it will mostly be sleet/ZR then rain.

It definitely is looking more and more like it will be shite for the RDU area. I think it is time to check out of this one. Enjoy to those that get it.