eyewall

Obviously there isn't much hope in Raleigh on this one, but also overall the BL temps suck once again (above freezing). This would be another quickly melting paste job at best. I would say you can probably halve or even quarter the GFS output there.

Wake is right on the screw line on the 18z GFS as always lol.

We would be shooting squirrels for food if that run verified in Raleigh.

I was following BTV's snow from this storm and it reminded me of when Powder would tell me don't worry you will clean up at the end. That looks like it held true this time. Now hope for me that this run verifies down here LOL:

That was a run for the ages LOL

All I ask is one 3"+ event in Raleigh this year. I hope by some miracle this works out.

GFS accumulations for the event late next week:

can we get some blizzard footage or pics in this thread?

I am wondering if a Boone trip is in order tomorrow for the upslope.

I hate 30's and rain! There is nothing worse when it comes to the weather. It sucks that we had the soil temps primed and CAD in place. We just couldn't pull off a solid Miller A. Now we battle sun angle and soil temps going forward as time runs short.

The misery of cold rain is here in Raleigh. I hate this crap. Give me a miller A.

1 minute ago, SouthWake33 said:

Surprised to wake up and see a winter weather advisory for Wake County.  Calling for up to half inch of snow and light ice glaze.

Yeah this is still a blown opportunity though. We needed a Miller A with ground now cold and everything primed.

This weekend storm is  a front ender for most anyway and those suck because you lose everything you get to rain. It will be a non event in Raleigh from the start anyway.

It is unfortunate we couldn't pull in a Miller A with the ground now primed. Anyway I am expecting a non event here and front enders are always lousy anyway because you lose whatever falls to rain in the end.

I still check in here as I will always miss my time in VT. Here in North Carolina we cashed in on dynamical cooling overnight:
 

RAH talking about soil temp issues in January but also mention the fast storm motion and non ideal parent high position:

Today`s probabilistic guidance from the GEFS has increased storm
total snowfall accumulations quite a bit but EC ENS is a bit more
reserved and more realistic looking. There`s a handful of factors
that would lend themselves toward lower snow totals. The lack of a
strong surface ridge over eastern Canada is concerning and while
there is cold air upstream, we`d be much more confident in
significant snow totals if the ridge was parked over Ontario vs
Manitoba. Secondly, the surface wave rapidly moves out of the area
and offshore, really only giving us a good 6 hours of snow potential
vs a slower moving system. Surface soil temperatures aren`t overly
cold either (40s) but that could be overcome with intense snow
rates. Overall given the variety of solutions out there, erring on
the lower end of the distribution seems to be prudent at this time.

GEFS has 90-100% for 1"+ in Raleigh and 70-80% for 3" plus. If I was forced to make a call now, I would say something along the lines of 1-3" for Raleigh right now

I think the GFS will be renamed the WTF model soon.

42 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

The MJO not going there until Feb 15th earliest. I read.   That's getting close to winter overtime around here  

yeah pretty much. You have to worry about sun angle busts at that point.

24 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Is that prediction based on the 6Z suite or do you see updated info somewhere?

Based on the overall northward trend which shifts the snow axis well into VA.

It is over for NC. It will be the usual crap, 38F-42F and rain.

17 hours ago, strongwxnc said:

Been a good year, so far for the mountains


.

Yep and quite the opposite out here.

And just like that hope vanishes again.

Alright so are we all meeting up in Richmond on the 28th?

38 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This is where skiers and riders get the stereotype of being one of the most entitled groups of people out there, ha.  And I say that with love and that I am in it too sometimes when I don’t step back and realize... “it’s just sliding on snow.”

So much complaining about a leisure activity sometimes.  I try to block it out, haha.

I know I was just happy to be out there. I paid for my skiing habit by driving Uber in Burlington PT when it was worthwhile.