eyewall

Not sure if we will see any more chances this year looking at the models this morning. There are some cold shots but no real winter storms at the moment. 1 and 3 is better than 0 and 3 I guess. Obviously once you pass mid Feb it gets much harder to get a good one in here. It was a good year for VA Beach and western areas but as of now it isn't memorable for the Triangle as we would end below normal in snowfall if no other chances materialize.

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

They did better than Raleigh

Well I stand corrected. Looks like we ended with 0.1 or so LOL.

I have to say it feels ridiculous tracking something for week only to pull a flizzard out of it LOL.

As expected we ended up with a flizzard in Raleigh. No accumulation. We are 1 for 3. Good year for Virginia Beach though lol.

We had some flakes but we effectively have zeroed out in terms of accumulation. We are 1 for 3 in Raleigh.

I am glad we got the 3 incher last week. 1 for 3 isn't good but better than 0. Hopefully next year we get a shot at a 6+ event.

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s pretty obvious the forcing we were hoping for went north of us into Virginia. This one’s dead- is what it is 

Yep we will zero out in Raleigh I think. 3 inches for the season it looks like.

RAH says sorry folks 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 PM Friday...

...Winter Weather Advisory for 1-2 inches of remains in effect
Tonight through Early Saturday for All of Central NC...

Little overall change to the forecast, with the main updates being
slightly lower snowfall amounts.

The mid-level trough is currently situated over southern IL and
western KY. This trough will track southeast in the southeast US
tonight, with tremendous height falls overspreading central NC. The
trough will close off and move off the New England coast by Saturday
morning. At the surface, current analysis shows a 1032 mb high
pressure over northwest MO. There is a weak surface low over north-
central KY tied to the upper-trough. The developing offshore low is
roughly 1008 mb off the southeast coast as noted in satellite
imagery. Latest radar trends show some echoes over the southern and
northwest Piedmont, however very little of this is reaching the
ground. The 18Z GSO sounding still showed considerable dry air below
700 mb and this should be the case until the column saturates as the
mid-level trough moves over the area during and after 00Z. Rain
showers have taken shape along the NC coast. Outside of some light
rain over the far eastern Coastal Plain, this activity should
continue to push east with the eastward progression of the system.

As the mid-level trough dives southeast and off the coast tonight
into tomorrow, trough will take on a negative tilt, further adding
to the strong dynamic forcing. Lift centered around the 290K
isentropic surface will favor a band of precipitation over the
northwest Piedmont that will track east-southeast through the
overnight into early Saturday morning. The 12Z forecast soundings
from the NAM/GFS indicate that only a short period of rain would be
warranted, as the column quickly saturates and, along with dynamic
cooling, reaches the wet-bulb zero temperature at the surface as the
trough moves through. Thus, the forecast continues the trend of
little in the way of rain and mostly a snow event. The latest
snowfall totals show a swath of 1-2 inches over the western
Piedmont, mainly west of US-1, and generally an inch or less east of
US-1 over the Coastal Plain. This is roughly in line with latest
high-resolution HRRR/NAM-NEST, which continues to favor higher
totals closer to the Triad. Still can`t rule out some areas that
could see up to 3 inches, especially where isolated heavier snow
bands develop with the strong forcing.

Temperatures tonight will drop down into the lower 20s over the
Triad to the lower 30s over the south and east. Gusty winds will
develop overnight as the coastal low deepens as it tracks off the
New England Coast by early Saturday. Northwest winds will become
sustained between 10-15 with gusts of 20 to 35 mph, producing wind
chills in the single digits to teens.

12 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Ok …. Greater chance of occurring…. Someone gets 3-6” in this Mystery band none of us can see, or NC State “Upsets” (If you wanna call it that) UNC Tomm in the Dean Dome while they honor Ole Roy?… or Option 3 I just lose everything this weekend 

The real longshot is the players attending real classes ;-)

Reed Trimmer is going to Sandwich. I considered flying up but work says otherwise.

About a tenth of an inch per hour ;-)

Just now, Snownado said:

Dang. I didn't realize an inch of snow was so unusual for Raleigh. Are you sure you dont live in Savannah ?

It is definitely overkill especially when the game isn't being played at 4am.

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Isn’t it still snowing there too? 

3 minutes ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

16Z HRRR shows snow breaking out around Winston area at 7pm and shows it still snowing at 5am tomorrow.  Most of it looks light to moderate.  Depending on how much is lost to virga, it could be a moderate event, according to this model.

Good luck all in this flizzard of the century!

Final Call:

I will be making one more update to my screwcast soon.

30 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

The lack of robust discussion in this thread is telling…

It is a glorified flizzard for most. I think that is why, but we will see who lucks out with any mesoscale features.

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Too bad all the fun in the Carolina’s is coming at night. Definitely serious now-casting. Some people going to wake up with bare dirt and scream “bust” while others 20 miles away have 4” will be screaming “overperformer.” I think it’s boom or bust, light rates are not going to cut it with borderline BL temps like they did last week and if you get fringed by one of those bands you’re not going to get much or anything. Think summertime thunderstorms if you want to know how this will play out

Agreed. It will be no more than a flizzard for many while a lucky few cash in.

6 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yes please!

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And of course it hits a wall for us lol

46 minutes ago, MHCWEATHER said:

What are the dynamics that dissipate the lee side energy and leave Wake bare ‘n bent? #newbs

It is basically a mid-level dry slot that will be the problem. Wherever that sets up, you will have a screw zone.

Yeah without sneaking a meso band in here it will be almost a non-event for Raleigh but it is what it is.