eyewall

It is a little better this run. Puts the ice corridor right up US-1:

 

The coastal crosses over the Sounds rather than up 95. This would mean a front end thump to mix, perhaps a dry slot and maybe catching a little on the back end:

It is the ICON but it transfers to a coastal low in the deep south with the new primary taking hold off Savannah/Charleston. The old low weakens south of Columbus, GA

NAM puts the baroclinic zone right where you want it and where it makes the most sense normally:

I am also a photographer so cold rain doesn't exactly make for great weather shots lol. ZR can if there is a enough on the trees though.

4 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Agreed. Around here i'm guessing we'll see a little front end snow that annoyingly changes to sleet earlier than we would want, ultimately changing to freezing rain for much longer than we'd like, followed by rain at the end that nobody likes.

That is the problem is we go over to 38F and rain ultimately. Also the warm nose almost always overperforms compared to the models so it will mostly be sleet/ZR then rain.

It definitely is looking more and more like it will be shite for the RDU area. I think it is time to check out of this one. Enjoy to those that get it.

I think my last post was deleted but the 18z GFS was a glimmer of hope. It will take a lot to pull this from the grave at RDU but we shall see. I hate seeing the Euro stop at 90 hours for 18z.

1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said:

What's your thoughts for Asheville? 

You are looking good there too.

1 minute ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I'm not looking at the column until I can see the whites of its eyes      Everyone complains about sleet, but to me that just keeps the snow around longer and gives perfect sledding conditions  

Sledding won't be a problem for those that get an inch of ice. You can build a luge course.

Yep it is crap. Front enders are the worst:

Nope, not going to get it where we need it on this run:
 

Just now, Sandstorm94 said:

How big was the warm nose?

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

I have no idea. Would have to find maps from that time. I think it was in 94 but can't be 100% sure. As for the Burlington event that was in 2013 I believe. It was 55F at 4,000ft.

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I got that in 2007 with temps in the teens

 Took me 3 hours to shovel

Yeah I saw it in the 90's on Long Island once. The best was witnessing 12F and freezing rain in Burlington VT.

5 hours ago, lilj4425 said:

I’m moving to Aspen. Screw this crap.

Lake Tahoe

The screw line is somewhere in the vicinity of I-77 for now. The sad thing about losing this one is the ground was getting good and primed to maintain a snow cover.

We may have to start talking about tors in the Coastal Plain if this keeps up

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I mean. There’s a reason why GSP didn’t cliff dive like this thread.

If you are in our area there is every reason to be upset. Nobody likes a front ender to rain scenario with mainly a mix at the start to boot.

39 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

These people are major buzz kills …. Why even Let yourself believe it was gonna stay Money runs for 5 days ….. anyone West of Raleigh still in for a Major event I’m not understanding the doom n gloom ….. if you thought we’d get 10-16” of all snow Models we’re predicting 36hrs ago you need to find a new hobby, bc you’ve obviously never learned a thing by doing this year in and year out it’s called Climo….. I’m sorry S/E of I-85 you knew When Miller B was an option how this would play out, normal places that score will score again….. GSO/WS/MT Airy/Mountains CAD Regions win that’s just NC stop Crying we’re lucky we even have anything to track after the last 2.5yrs 

Doom and gloom is justified for us in the RDU screw zone on this one.

Looking at the continued trends this morning I am inclined to say it won't work out for Central NC and the RDU region. That is unless you like a mix to rain scenario. I am almost ready to write this one off given the trends.

4 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Anyone have the 18z euro?

It stops at 90 hours so don't really get much out of it.

Yeah this is looking more and more like an I-77 special I hate to say.