eyewall

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see RAH upgrade Wake to a WSW later. It might be one of those as the situation unfolds things. 

They are not going to budge until the precip shield becomes established.

4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'd be shocked to see more than 3" anywhere in Wake.  Trust me, I'm pulling for it, but based on climatology and situations like this in the past, I agree with RAH's statement about the dry air this far back and the extent of the western precip shield.

I'm going 1-3" across Wake, with most areas 1-2".  Still a great snow!

I would say needs to be closer to 3 to make for some good photos. We shall see.

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Yeah after the overnight models thought Wake country would be upgraded to a WSW but looks like RAH left their advisories as is.

Too much uncertainty. This is a crapshoot so brace yourselves. The zones have the same for me as some of the warning areas though.

7 minutes ago, NCsandhills said:

The lightest coating of snow is on my car, trash can lids, and my autumn leaves. 28° and pretty breezy.

Yeah that is what we have over here by Oakwood.

I think for central NC freezing drizzle will be a problem overnight and black ice. Radar returns look paltry. 

I would call it snizzle here for now.

1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'm not sold on anything that noticeable for Wake with tonight's first round.  Cold chasing moisture and it looks like limited moisture by the time temperatures get low enough for anything appreciable.

As for the main round tomorrow, it's going to be really close with how far west the main precipitation gets...  It is going to be painful for someone...  
I'm going 1-3" across Wake.

I agree, the steady shield is almost through already.

27 minutes ago, marsman said:

Someone reported snow/graupel in downtown Raleigh on mPING. Visible on RadarScope.

I haven't seen that but also I was not looking either so I will keep an eye out.

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Would not shock me to hit that tomorrow. Gut feeling ratios will bring us to the promised land 

Yeah it will be interesting to see how much frozen sneaks in tonight before the main round.

3+ is warning criteria for Raleigh. I'll take it.

It was only a 1/2 inch on average lower than the 12z run. The overall coverage area was fairly consistent. It essentially held serve for this region. It increased a bit just NE.

2 minutes ago, Midnight Moon said:

Transition period was too slow compared to modeling.

They haven't been to the school of NC weather with cold chasing the moisture.

10 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

Paywalled. Can you give the general idea?

Euro is not as good with phasing the vortmaxes compared to the 12z GFS run but it is close. Again that is the real key to this whole thing.

2 minutes ago, EverythingisEverything said:

How is it looking for SE VA?

Still in good shape there.

yep much better interaction of our vortmaxes

1 minute ago, wake4est said:

Boom?

It is banking on two rounds with this area on the southern edge of the first and back in the main round as well.

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The dam has burst and the NW trend has hit

Here is to hoping as we anxiously await the 12z suite.

5 minutes ago, marsman said:

Sorry folks, parks closed. The moose out front should of told ya'.

The moose says you're closed. I say you're open!

Raleigh salvaging a good winter is on life support at this point that is for sure. It has been tough to be constantly shafted in a solid pattern.

Note the small differences in the vort max over TN along with the southern piece of energy. These subtle differences are going to make or break this event IMO.

Interestingly, the GFS brings the main round of snow late Friday night/early Sat morning on the 6z run. Honestly I still don't think there is a good handle on all these little shortwaves and how they will interact with the front. I don't think any forecast an be one of high confidence and bust potential is high everywhere in either direction.