eyewall

5 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

The couple of thunderstorms that were supposed to roll through here yesterday weren’t nearly as strong as the HRRR was indicating.  

They didn't hit a solid environment until reaching the Coastal Plain.

Got a wall cloud on the lead cell this afternoon near Dortches NC

I caught the developing meso outside of Apex of what became that supercell over Raleigh:
 

Proximity to the radar is also why the CC hole doesn't look as well defined.

It has been on the ground for over 60 miles and counting going by the CC drop.

Just now, TexMexWx said:

Couplet SW of Cave Spring, GA is becoming quite intense. The supercell structure looks like slop but it's probably being scanned from pretty high

yeah it is in a radar hole. The circulation is very intense.

It will certainly go down as one of the worst Moderate Risk busts in some time. They seem to struggle when it isn't the Plains or Dixie Alley. None the less here is a pano I took of the tornado warned cell in Alamance County NC:
 

Alamance County NC this evening (Graham and near Saxapahaw)

About to post some pics. I caught the tor warned cell in Alamance and then the next one to its southwest near Saxapawhaw that also became warned. If there was any funnel it was most certainly rainwrapped. None the less not a bad first chase of the year.

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

May have to get your spotlight out. I’m not sure it gets here before dark. 

yeah I may roll west a bit.

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I say bust too being they dismissed schools early and many business across the eastern part of the state closed between 2-4 in anticipation of severe weather. Many of these areas may not see any weather (rain) period. That’s a bust when you get to the point of closing schools and businesses and there isn’t a severe report within 100 miles when you started the day in a level 3-4 severe threat.

I will take a consolation shelf with the QLCS

Some breaks and filtered sun appearing here in Raleigh. The main line is still west of I-77

3 hours ago, Cheeznado said:

I chased a really great supercell in Central Alabama yesterday west and SW of Selma. Best SE storm structure I have seen in my 41 years here. Go to https://www.facebook.com/cheeznadophoto

I would love to get something like that with drone

Downgraded to Enhanced in southeast NC/northeast SC

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Agreed, but it I’ll give RAH kudos- they outlined the limiting factors through their discussions on today’s threat. 
 

WRAL mentioned there’s a high bust potential with today’s threat on their morning news. I’m thinking wedge wins out, based on it being 49 and drizzly with a northeast wind and a system progged to arrive earlier than previously forecast, giving even less time to destabilize 

Yep. 50F and drizzle isn't going to get the job done.

Just now, wizard021 said:

Also note the 300 - 500 mb layer is considerably more moist . High cloud cover is going to be an issue.

Again on 4/16/11 in NC we had 30 tornadoes and hardly any sun that day.

Just now, andyhb said:

@wizard021 You don't need 1000 m2/s2 SRH to get a threat of significant tornadoes. Please stop with all of this nonsense.

April 16th, 2011 was around 200-400 I think. NC had 30 tornadoes that day.

2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

is TorCon their version of sig tor parameter?  Or is it something different?

I think it is similar to SPC probs within 25 miles of any given location but for a much bigger area. Maybe within 100 miles?

4 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Orangeburg would not be a bad place at all to sit out and watch this thing.

Newton Grove in NC is a nice go to as well.

I think we may need to add Thursday to this thread too but definitely the first big Dixie Alley event of the year.

Should be a nice hit for Hagerstown.

This is the time of year I hate most because I know the heat will be here soon enough.

11 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Well fellas, I'm not forecasted to get below freezing again on the 16 day so I have officially thrown the towel on winter this year. Getting (appreciable) winter weather after March 10th has only happened a couple of times in my lifetime. I'll wait to give my official winter grade till April (I know everyone is waiting with bated breath). The mountains may still do well but I think it's about over for my area.

It is a D- here.

16 hours ago, PantherJustin said:

welp.... lol I guess this deafening silence in here pretty much explains its self. 

If I commented right now I would probably be banned.

A few more (some are re-edits):