eyewall

12z GFS Is a good run for Raleigh that is for sure. A nice 4-6 event. the ice is still worrysome of course but where that front hangs up is going to make all the difference.

One thing is it's very important to keep in mind a purely snow event in the triangle is extremely rare. Even Jan 2000 started as a good amount of rain before changing over to snow. We had 20 inches out of that when I was in Southern Pines after hours of cold rain. If we get a bit of snow and a little sleet, the sleet will make any snowpack hang around quite a bit longer. Of course for photos I need it to be in the trees too. I only wish I was a photog in 2000 and had drone tech then.

Honestly I would take the 2-4" verbatim from the GFS at 6z and call it a day. Hopefully the amounts go up but we shall see. Overall it is still getting a handle on the suppression factor.

Yeah 18z definitely suppressed but I figured the NW edge would have been a bit farther north. The culprit is very dry mid levels looking at the 850 RH. This is for the 2nd wave. That sure is a sharp cutoff:

A part of why the last system had such profound mid-level warming which helped was the SST anomalies. The Atlantic is quite warm,. Good for amping up storms with the baroclinicity but bad for those rooting against profound warm noses. That is a factor to remember with these next ones too:

The Euro doesn't really separate the two waves where as the GFS does. The Euro develops a single low and bombs it out as phasing occurs. The GFS has a more distinct separation and delays the second vortmax a bit resulting in the weak impulse first with the FROPA followed by the main wave late in the weekend. Of course as mentioned, we know the strength of the SE ridge will play a key role here as well.

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

tempted to start a sub-thread for the Raleigh-East crew. I don’t think we’re all rooting for the same thing. 

I am just as salty as anyone right now after the miss with this last system but that will just be a mess if we try that I think. We can bitch and moan in the Sanitarium. They have a coffee mug there with my name on it.

Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

A few more runs and that ice and snow will be in western NC and Tennessee. Has the NW movement in the models started?

Hard to know but that was looking too similar to today. Not good.

LOL more ice with that next system. I'll pass.

5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Although many here predicted this 

That is true

Seems like the ice storm busted for most due to sleet.

It looks like sleet saved a lot of people from a major ice event in the Piedmont.

33 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

You know that it will either be a small event or nothing at all. Since moving to the Raleigh area I haven't seen over 2 inches of snow. That is 3 years so far. 

It is very hard to get a significant event here that is for sure. A 6 inch+ event happens probably a couple of times a decade at best.

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Above freezing now, 32.9. Finished with a coating of snow and sleet and at 0.25” of ice, maybe a hair more

Yeah that makes sense. Somewhere around 0.2 to 0.25 across the city. Is melting out now. We came close to losing power here.

From the ground:
 

Probably changing to plain rain now but this was Raleigh on a risky drone flight with wind gusts pushing it hard:
 

1 minute ago, StantonParkHoya said:

You must be downtown. We’re still sleeting in North Raleigh. Has limited the accrual.

yeah very close to downtown

Raleigh just after noon

Icing up solidly here now

14 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Really?  In Wake county?  Not according to radar.  zr still east of I95

ZR mostly with a little sleet mixed in here in Raleigh itself.

They are upping projected winds in the NC Piedmont because of obs farther upstream. Maybe some 50 mph gusts later.

The scene this morning lol. We will rebuild! #RaleighStrong

Sleet/ZR in Raleigh itself 

I am not getting my hopes up until this gets closer after how the last couple of chances have gone LOL.

All sleet now. We are following the typical Raleigh model. A few flakes at first and now all sleet. We will see a brief period of ZR then rain and 38 this afternoon.