eyewall

12Z GFS is colder for sure with a lot less ZR. Saves us from complete cliff jump.

3 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

been waiting for this.  Oh well, we'll see what happens

Yeah this would be the final death blow on the season for those in the Triangle. On to the 12z GFS.

They may cancel the watches here after the 12z suite lol.

It is definitely a sinking feeling in the Triangle at this point with these trends. I may have to chase northeast.

8 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Al Conklin out Of CLT for those interested also shows Raleigh 

 

I'll take that call any day of the week LOL. Anyway he is definitely a bit more west with higher totals than I would have thought but not impossible.

Just now, SteveRDU said:

Way too close for comfort here in Durham

LOL try being in Raleigh right on that gradient.

Just now, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Through 7 pm Friday but won't it still be snowing then?

It would seem so but I think there is a limit on how far they can go out on these.

Just now, jlh said:

Seems plausible, models seem to hint at a pretty good hit for snow where we are in far NE NC too, though I am wondering on the latest runs if the cold will be think enough for all snow. Seems to be a trend of the sleet/fzra encroaching a little further NW from the coast. Guess we shall see what plays out.

If anything the 18z GFS pushed the ZR a bit farther southeast and the main round of snow is in a much shorter period.

I feel like the models are struggling with these waves but the key is we stand in good shape to see at least a little something. As far as Raleigh I am thinking the low end is 1-3 inches but can't rule out more of a 4-8 event without question. Certainly I think we will see some pingers in there too.

18z NAM rolling now

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Anyone have the Kuchera for the Euro? I think it would have even bigger totals. 

The 850's do crash and temps are well down into the 20's and some upper teens. That would suggest better ratios as the event progresses.

Just now, eyewall said:

 

 

Verbatim that would be a bulletproof 4-8 for the Raleigh area.

12z GFS Is a good run for Raleigh that is for sure. A nice 4-6 event. the ice is still worrysome of course but where that front hangs up is going to make all the difference.

One thing is it's very important to keep in mind a purely snow event in the triangle is extremely rare. Even Jan 2000 started as a good amount of rain before changing over to snow. We had 20 inches out of that when I was in Southern Pines after hours of cold rain. If we get a bit of snow and a little sleet, the sleet will make any snowpack hang around quite a bit longer. Of course for photos I need it to be in the trees too. I only wish I was a photog in 2000 and had drone tech then.

Honestly I would take the 2-4" verbatim from the GFS at 6z and call it a day. Hopefully the amounts go up but we shall see. Overall it is still getting a handle on the suppression factor.

Yeah 18z definitely suppressed but I figured the NW edge would have been a bit farther north. The culprit is very dry mid levels looking at the 850 RH. This is for the 2nd wave. That sure is a sharp cutoff:

A part of why the last system had such profound mid-level warming which helped was the SST anomalies. The Atlantic is quite warm,. Good for amping up storms with the baroclinicity but bad for those rooting against profound warm noses. That is a factor to remember with these next ones too:

The Euro doesn't really separate the two waves where as the GFS does. The Euro develops a single low and bombs it out as phasing occurs. The GFS has a more distinct separation and delays the second vortmax a bit resulting in the weak impulse first with the FROPA followed by the main wave late in the weekend. Of course as mentioned, we know the strength of the SE ridge will play a key role here as well.

6 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

tempted to start a sub-thread for the Raleigh-East crew. I don’t think we’re all rooting for the same thing. 

I am just as salty as anyone right now after the miss with this last system but that will just be a mess if we try that I think. We can bitch and moan in the Sanitarium. They have a coffee mug there with my name on it.