eyewall

Along and east of US-1: Reserve your spot in the sanitarium now

West of US-1 to the Triad/Charlotte area: Game on!

West of the Triad/Mountains: This will be one to remember

That is your 12z Euro verdict. 

For NC it is looking like a west of 85 event without question. 

I am growing more confident that this will be a bust for us RDU folks unless you like cold rain and perhaps a touch of sleet/zr. At best we could get lucky with a few backside flakes with the dreaded cold air chase. It is close but I am just not seeing the amount of cold air that makes me confident in a seeing a memorable winter storm. On a side note, the northern NC counties should keep an eye for a few flakes in the very early hours of Wed morning.  

It isn't a great run but it could be worse. As everyone said, don't get lost in a single op run. I am definitely thinking it will be more of a mixed-p event for most at this stage rather than a 12-24 inch blockbuster. I think if it comes down to riding the DGEX when all is said and done then it is best to head over to the sanitarium.

Just now, Cold Rain said:

That's pretty amazing.  I have never seen snow like that in person.  Your pic is one of the snowiest pics I've seen.  I'll bet that was so fun.

It was amazing but believe it or not things re-opened quick up there. Awesome powder in the ski areas (some saw 60"). I still think jan 2000 in Southern Pines was the most significant snow event I have been through in terms of impact.

Just now, Cold Rain said:

What would you guess the rate to be in that first pic?  Looks like about 3"/hr at least.

It was 5"/hr and it was insane. I believe we had 9 inches in 2 hours.

Just now, DopplerWx said:

what a nice storm to welcome you back to the SE snow reality.  hoping for the best but expecting the worst.

If it verifies. It could end up easily putting me in the sanitarium lol. I miss snow already, and in VT they have had an epic November. I am just happy I was there for the Pi Day event in 2017 with my first ever 30 incher:

It is far from the perfect track for the RDU area on the overnight Euro, but there would be at least a backside deform band for a couple of hours and a quick couple of inches in that scenario I would think. Otherwise it would be mostly rain/mixed-p . Obviously that will shift again and it is a single op run so we shall see. We are far from full consensus at this time.

1 hour ago, Hitman said:

Exciting stuff.  Reading through the afd, with the flow after the storm, it seems there could be more than 2’ when all is said and done.

There won't be a problem with a solid base that is for sure!

21 hours ago, AirNelson39 said:

Another beautiful ice storm in Boone this morning.

This is a fantastic shot! 

10 hours ago, NicInNC said:

According to a friend in Yadkinville she had light flurries about 45 minutes ago. Radar still showing some over Wilkesboro.

Areas south of High Point near Concord did as well. First flakes outside of the mountains in those areas. 

This was Raleigh on 11/4. I posted some pics from Stokes County from 11/5 in the foothills/mountains thread:

The mountains busted down here but as I thought, the foothills/western Piedmont of NC did pretty well even if it was a little late (I know it is out of region but I figured you might enjoy these shots):

Hanging Rock is having a decent peak considering the circumstances:

And one more from when it was sunny on Sat:
 

3 hours ago, FallsLake said:

From what you showed us in the mountains, I dare say we'll have better colors this year. 

I'm taking a hike tomorrow around Falls Lake; should be perfect fall weather and leaf viewing. 

I agree. It definitely looks that way.

Some nice color popping around the triangle now:

1 hour ago, Gibby said:

Not that it will verify, but its fun to see wintry precip show up. 

Hahah that is fun to look at but overall you just want to see the pattern setting up in our favor at this point.

14 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Well it's good to have you back. We need good mets to help track storms when they do occur.  

But one thing you have to admit, snow here is more special than a place that gets it continuously for three months. I've lived in colder climates and I didn't enjoy the snow/cold as much as I do now in NC. There's nothing better than a good SE snow storm. Sometimes we have to wait a few years to get it, but we eventually do.   

 

That is true although I witnessed a 30 inch snowfall up there and that is special almost anywhere. 

2 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Eyewall, amazing pics.  Whats your drone setup? I'm all in for Christmas this year.

Thank you. It is the DJI Mavic 2 Pro

8 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

^Is that Hanging Rock State Park, eyewall? Beautiful pics!

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
 

Yes it is. It is legal to launch outside of the park boundaries to take a look. You just can't take off or land in state parks in NC.

I am jealous of the early snow  Anyway I found some foliage in Stokes County (some of these areas will likely peak within the next week or so):

On 10/25/2018 at 3:56 PM, FallsLake said:

Are you back in NC (permanent/visiting)? 

It is permanent for the time being. I sure will miss Vermont without a doubt. I had to come back for my fiancee.  Expect plenty of complaining as I got from 100" of snow a year to 0 LOL.

On 10/24/2018 at 12:20 PM, nrgjeff said:

Maybe it's just late. Something may have gone awry for reds in the mountains. Some reds are trying down here in town; however, note I'm also in another state Tenn. Thank you @eyewall and @Met1985 for some reports up there. Met I'm sorry for your loss. May some fall leaves bring at least some sliver of cheer.

I'm hopeful mid-mountain to near valley will be good this year. A Halloween week consolation works for me. Oh yeah, of course rain last Saturday and forecast clouds/questions this Saturday hampers viewing. Well, I guess that's why they call it a Sunday drive, lol!

The latest report is saying there will be no peak this year, confirming a browning out for the most part. 

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

18" at MWN observatory and 6 foot drifts.  Their social media video was nuts.

I will have to check that out. I was seeing pics from the backcountry skiers. I miss it for sure. I am definitely doing a winter trip for some turns though.

Looks like 17-18 inches at Tuckermans