eyewall

I know I will be ready to position myself in any potential jackpot zone should anything materialize.

19 minutes ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

Quite a few smaller events, some medium level events. Really, better than I thought given the OP run. Most of the GEFS members have snow in NC. What does the ensemble mean look like? Either way, now we wait for the EPS. 

The mean has 1-2 inches across NC

12Z GFES ENS members:
 

1 minute ago, snowblzchance N CLT said:

Thanks for the analysis! So in future runs what should we be looking for to help amplify those disturbances without loosing that beautiful dome of high pressure?  Is it that the angle of approach of the northern stream diving in is too far east creating a dry WNW flow instead of more of WSW flow like in earlier model runs?  I know we’re basically looking at squeeze play setting up along the thermal gradient between the NS and the Southeast ridge. Is it a matter of having that gradient setting up more WSW?

Yeah basically. We need that energy to dive in farther WSW as when it finally comes in toward Fri it is too late unless you are halfway to the Azores.

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Unfortunately with the energy that is being held back in the southwest- It will likely eject after it warms up and be a big rain maker. Last night's OP euro showed it. 

Yep basically back to square one at that point.

10 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Why?  Another one liner without any reasoning. Come on. You absolutely know better. The GFS actually took a small step towards what it once had and yet you still post this.....sigh. Belongs in banter. Step up your game too. 

I know I am just expressing frustration. Anyway if you want a little more it is obviously a very suppressed run with the strong high nosing south and confluence in the upper levels. There just isn't the amplification to unleash a power house low nor the strong shortwave energy. Your looking at some weak disturbances feeding off strong out vorticity to the south of the confluence that would result in a weak "southern slider". That is what this run shows. Is it a hair better, I suppose, but nowhere close to anything substantial on 12z op run.

Additional note: There is a better looking vort max that tries to makes it way into the picture on Fri but it would spawn a low too far off to the east well off shore.

Well it was fun while it lasted.

3 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I know there are years where RDU got blanked, but has there been an entire winter season where no measurable snow was recorded in the entire forecast area? Furthermore, has there even been a season where the Raleigh NWS didn't issue a single winter weather product throughout? We may be in rare territory here

Most depressing winter in history to be sure. It is almost impossible to get a win in this pattern. The 2/8 event was a lottery win for those who lucked out.

2 minutes ago, Extreme NEGA said:

Pretty sure this has been asked before but what does Dendritic growth mean on the soundings?

Typically the area on a sounding where the temp is between -10C and -20C. You want to see if that region is saturated or not. This is the temp range for optimal snow growth and the microphysics involved in that.

2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

You may need to get on I-40 but climo says you’ll need to head west. 

Yeah true. The point is if anything actually materializes I plan on being there for it.

I will be headed down I-40 if anything remotely close to that is actually expected to verify.

14 hours ago, burrel2 said:

3 inches of slop mixed with sleet. notice the donut hole over Oconee/Pickens county.

If there was a '93 redux this entire board will fill a hotel in Boone ;).

6 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Why? Is the summer ahead projecting to be a scorcher?  wet? dry?

No way to know but the bugs will be awful.

4 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

There is nothing....and I mean nothing....that would indicate a pattern shift before March 1.  And the odds for RDU / Central Piedmont drop significantly at that point.  So its likely a safe bet. 

Outside of a freak tango of overnight cold and pop-up LP system,  there really arent any ducks on the long range pond.  We cant even get a chunk of the polar vortex to break off and make national news.  

Yeah it is going to take a lot of time for the sting to wear off. The prospect of the summer ahead doesn't help.

Apparently NWS Raleigh is now on board with RDU getting blanked for the season according to NPR.

12 hours ago, Fozz said:

I had another great day at Stowe today (well, maybe technically yesterday since it's midnight). It snowed all day and there was some good fresh powder on many trails.

This hasn’t been a very good season, but these past 3 days at Stowe were amazing. I couldn’t have picked a better time to go up there.

 

Smugglers from Spruce peak was my last run of the day.

 

  

This was from up top the Four Runner quad.

 

•  

I miss Smuggs very much! Glad you had a good run up there!

28 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

The 0z EURO CONTROL and 12z GFS look kinda similar for late next week.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

That is a triple bunner:

Baghdad now has more snow than RDU this season.

Congrats Baghdad:

https://www.wral.com/iraqis-wake-up-to-snow-for-first-time-in-over-a-decade/18945640/

2 hours ago, Isopycnic said:

the next severe event in NC

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

The next 2 to 3 weeks are going to be crap with the pattern. Literally every indicy is going to be against us. 

It is over. Time for severe season

I have to laugh at myself for the times I complained up there. North GA got a hit yesterday and here we are still sitting on a trace for the season (which even here is abysmal). This actually ranks as the worst winter I have ever been through. Anywhere south of you guys and the pattern is a complete disaster. I am enjoying all the pics in this thread wishing I was on the slopes again.

11 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:

Drove and hiked through some pea soup fog on Grandfather after work today to find a couple inches of snow at the Boone Fork Bridge.

Great shot!

24 minutes ago, Tacoma said:

why couldn't one of these events be snow, where is the cold when you need it?

Exactly. We remain at a trace here.

9 hours ago, SteveRDU said:

Spotted 2 flakes here in Raleigh! That’s like 6 whole flakes for the season!

It really has been the most depressing winter here I can remember. This event was one more gut punch.