eyewall

The storm motions are going to be very rapid so it will basically be one shot at each storm for most chasers.

We have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk. 15% tor and 60% wind.

...Mid-Atlantic and Southeast... Primary changes this outlook are to add a 45 total severe probability along with minor northeast and southeast expansion to the categorical risk areas. Portions of the region, centered on SC to MD, may warrant an upgrade to a level 4/Moderate Risk in later outlooks. A large and deepening upper trough will eject east/northeastward out of the MS/OH/TN Valleys and across the Appalachians and into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast on Monday, with an expansive area of strong to intense wind fields aloft. A deep cyclone will move from Lower MI into QC, with an occluding cold front arcing southeast across the northern Appalachians, then south-southwest into the northern Gulf. This front will clear all but the FL Peninsula by Monday evening. Ahead of the front, seasonably rich low-level moisture characterized by 60s surface dew points will spread northward from the eastern Gulf/western Atlantic. Convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Monday, low-topped along the Upper OH Valley to central Appalachian portion of the front to deep convection in the lee of the southern Appalachians to eastern FL Panhandle. A diurnal uptick in storm intensity, including potential for semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front, should occur from north FL to the Carolina Piedmont. Further intensification is anticipated midday into the afternoon as a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy likely develops just ahead of morning storms. Enlarged low-level hodograph curvature, in conjunction with favorable elongation of the mid/upper hodograph, should foster a mix of broken supercells south with line-embedded supercells in the reinvigorated QLCS north. With such intense 700-mb flow aptly timed with the diurnal heating cycle overlying rich low-level moisture, setup could yield an expansive severe weather day, including strong tornadoes and significant damaging winds. The degree of boundary-layer heating, as well as timing of convection that may outpace the front late D2 into early D3, will play key roles in how intense severe magnitudes may become. At present, the most likely corridor for significant/widespread severe appears centered on the eastern Piedmont to coastal plain from SC to MD around midday into the afternoon.

and if you go in August they also have humidity with it.

Yeah no way in hell I would want to live there.

Alright who is the weenie who reported snow in Raleigh? LOL

Probably weenie hallucinations but I swear I saw some ice pellets in Raleigh.

Let us hope this does not happen this summer!

The Euro shows it to a lesser extent for Thursday. Either way the ground will be super warm.

Any severe will be on the coastal plain for sure.

RDU is reporting 83F so the record has been broken.

I woke very upset that there were no breaks in the clouds to see and photograph the lunar eclipse (it was the last one until 2029). I tried to punch through the cloud deck with my drone as a backup but the layer was just too thick.

For me I will go with a C with a 2 grade deduction for the dry slot screw job. I did get to chase but getting shafted at home hurt. Prolonged cold and several small snow events keep it a passing grade however. What are your thoughts?

Thank you! The Presidentials in winter are as close as you get to the Rockies in the East.

Aerial video of Mt. Mansfield: