sbnwx85

Had some pretty hard rain. Flash flooding possible tonight. Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0072 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 433 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023 Areas affected...central/northern IL into northern IN, northwestern OH and southern MI Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 222130Z - 230330Z SUMMARY...Heavy rain will continue a threat for flooding from central/northern IL into northern IN and extreme northwestern OH/southern MI. Peak rainfall rates of just over 1 in/hr will allow for an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain through 03Z, but rainfall intensity is expected to decrease with time. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery at 21Z showed a broad shield of precipitation extending to the north and northeast of a surface low analyzed over central IL. Localized reports of 1+ in/hr have occurred across portions of central IL over the past few hours where the SPC mesoanalysis indicated MUCAPE near 100 J/kg and precipitable water values of 1.2 to 1.4 inches. MRMS and gauge reports indicated 1 to 3 inches of rain has fallen over the past 12 hours from central IL into north-central IN. Across far northern IN/OH into southern MI, surface temperatures near 32 have supported areas of freezing rain with the freezing line expected to only marginally lift north over the next few hours. As a negatively tilted shortwave over the mid-Mississippi Valley continues to advance northeastward, it is expected to maintain a weakening trend and support the ENE track of the surface low over central IL toward northwestern OH. South-southwesterly 850 mb winds of 50 to 60 kt just ahead of the shortwave and surface low are expected to continue strong ascent over a well-defined warm front extending eastward from the low. Elevated instability is only about 100-200 J/kg according to the 20Z SPC mesoanalysis but is forecast to gradually lower over the next 3-6 hours which should reduce peak rainfall intensity to 0.5 to 0.75 in/hr beyond 00Z. An additional 1-2 inches of rain is expected through 03Z, with rainfall ending from west to east. Expected rainfall should near area 3-hr flash flood guidance of 1 to 1.5 inches, but should primarily lie north of the axis of heavy rain that has fallen over the past 12 hours. Nonetheless, localized areas of flooding will be possible, within a fairly narrow corridor between the warm front and frozen precipitation to the north over southern MI. Otto

33 and rain has me posting fantasy Euro storms. Sad!

^What could go wrong this far out?

Just posted about that in the medium/long range thread. Trying to reel it in for us. It's probably our last hope before "spring".

I'm telling you right now...this is gonna be the big one for us. GFS has a storm, too, but it'll come around and slide west soon.

Tornado Watch up for the southern half of Illinois and Eastern Missouri. SUMMARY...A broken line of storms is expected to intensify and race northeastward and pose a damaging wind and tornado risk, particularly in vicinity of a warm front from near/north of the St Louis area into south-central Illinois.

On the way into work I noticed one area in particular near the Toll Road where ice was still in the trees. I'd bet some areas in Northern Indiana ended up with a tenth of an inch of ice. I think MBY was just under that amount.

33 and rain. The worst weather on the planet.

Hanging on to 32 degrees. Moderate rain coming down. The ice is having a harder time accumulating but there’s a little more than a couple hours ago. Still nothing on the ground so roads, outside of bridges and overpasses, shouldn’t be bad.

My backyard thermometer just went from 30 to 31 at 7 am. I’ll assume it was about this temperature while the moderate to heavy freezing rain moved through last hour. The parking lots and grass were only wet but everything else was covered in ice. Trees, cars, fences, etc. It seemed to accrue somewhat efficiently just above the ground. You’ve been alerted, Michigan posters. Good luck.

Going to hope for a rumble of thunder tomorrow.

IWX goes WWA for Branch and HIllsdale. I suspect they'll expand that to cover a light glaze of ice further south and west overnight. It's annoying some TV mets that they're waiting...

Look at what the HRRR puts down before temps go above freezing for my area. Edit: And here's the entire run...FWIW

I'll see your 36 degrees and raise you 34 degrees and rain.

Pretty early in the year to break out the Excessive Rainfall Outlook map but here we are.

I always jump the gun in the "When Will Watches Be Issued Game". I may never learn.

I would imagine GRR would hoist watches this afternoon considering every model gives them heavy wintry precip in some form. IWX may issue one for Branch and Hillsdale in MI, too.

The winter of futility records continues for ya. Smdh. At least the end of the month looks to be active.

Final call: cold rain. Going to be a doozy of an ice storm just about a county or two north though. Might be close enough to look around before work Thursday morning.

I thought NAM would be a bit south too at first but it turned out to be about the same as the previous run with placement of ice in Michigan. Still lofty totals too.

18z GFS says maybe it’s time for me to invest in a generator.

That is a blessing. I’ve been in an ice storm in January 2001 where half of an inch of ice accrued and temps stayed below freezing for over a week. Took several days to restore power.

I’m leaning toward a cold rain here but occasionally a GFS or Euro run gets ice south of the Michigan border…it’s enough to keep me invested. A shift south by 30-50 miles would put me in the worst of the freezing rain. For now, I-94 in Michigan looks like it will get hit the hardest with ice.

GFS is a touch south at 12z. Canadian a touch north. Some relatively minor run-to-run variability but overall each model has been really consistent since Friday.