sbnwx85

NAM says...you're right.

Just a 50 mile shift south would be great on the GFS.

I have a feeling I'll be riding the edge of rain/snow here. Could end up with a slushy mess.

At 4" now. Last bit of good returns are pushing away. Expecting at least a couple more inches tomorrow but could be more if a dominant lake band sets up just right.

IWX is going all-in on the lake-effect tonight/tomorrow: EDIT: I assume "this evening" refers to Thursday evening in the advisory text. Also, a little surprised they didn't just upgrade to a warning based on an additional 5 to 8 in the forecast. I'll have to dig into the AFD. Elkhart-Northern La Porte-Eastern St. Joseph IN- Western St. Joseph IN-Cass MI-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien- Including the cities of Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Michigan City, La Porte, Kingsbury, Fish Lake, South Bend, Mishawaka, Lakeville, Granger, North Liberty, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg, Marcellus, Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Paw Paw Lake, Niles, New Buffalo, Stevensville, and Berrien Springs 221 PM EST Wed Jan 25 2023 /121 PM CST Wed Jan 25 2023/ ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ FRIDAY... * WHAT...Snow and then lake effect snow expected. An additional 5 to 8 inches of snowfall is expected into this evening totalling 6 to 12 inches for the entire event. * WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. * WHEN...Until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the evening and then morning commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...System snow is expected to continue into the afternoon before dissipating this evening. Lake effect snow is expected to take over 3 to 6 hours later and continue through much of Thursday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling.

3.5”. South Bend looks as good as it can.

Up to 2” now. Good returns incoming on radar. Definitely a nice paste job. Edit: Should add that we’re losing some of this to melting. I can hear the water dripping down the waterspouts.

Just under an inch here and snowing at a good clip.

Riding with the Canadian.

IWX liking the lake impact a little more now. Calling for up to 3" on top of whatever the system leaves behind.

Definitely the most active pattern since November in these parts. Four inches tomorrow, 1" Thursday, 1" Friday and possibly 4" Saturday night/Sunday. It won't be 10" on the ground due to compaction but it'll at least look like a proper January. And the extended looks good too.

One way or the other I'm getting 4" of snow out of this thing. If the system underperforms, lake-effect should get me there. On a side note, it looks like the 12z Euro is delayed?

IWX snow map. Solid event. Throw in some lake effect on the backside and, baby, we got snowpack.

Still like my 4" call.

Kurchera vs. 10:1. Pick your fighter.

4” seems like a solid bet. Good start to a snowpack. Keep ‘em coming.

About 3 mb stronger and just a tick north than 12z. Maybe the start of a trend?

Updated mood:

Based on recent trends this should end up being an advisory level event here. But we should build up a decent snowpack with the clipper following right behind it.

Even IWX is jaded by this winter. Not much to speak about here until the next weather system lurks midweek. Seeing how winter has gone so far, and the models with it, I`ll take the glass half-empty approach by saying that a notable shift in storm track is still woefully possible. (Recall there will be 16 model runs between now and Tuesday morning for those that are run 4x/day). For now, given the blended forecast approach, I`ll keep POPs a tame as possible as to not over promise on snow or rain at this distance.

Status update:

GFS is a dream scenario here. I’d take the Canadian too.

I could muster an inch of lake-effect out of this thing tomorrow.

Current mood:

After such a fast start to the season in South Bend only 0.4" of snow has fallen in January. It's the 6th least snowiest start to the month on record. The season's total sits at 39.5" which is still about 8" above normal. Info courtesy WSBT-TV Storm Alert Weather Team.