Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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^ Looks like a widespread 3 to 5 degrees below average. Nice.
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Don't look now, but the NAM wants snow squalls on Thursday morning from US 50 west.
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IIRC, Phase 7, 8, and 1 are our money phases.
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To illustrate the turbulence in the long range, the operational GFS trended between 10 and 18 degrees colder from 12z to 18z today for the Dec 10th event.
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Optimism? What did you do to the real Ji?
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I can absolutely understand the anxiety in the annual winter long range threads. Each year our window for any sensible winter gets smaller and smaller it seems.
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Last winter we were pulling ticks off our horse in January. Went back and looks at the data from my cooperative site and noticed we hit the mid 70s. . .
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Low of 22°. The four inch soil temperatures have really cooled off. Out petunias finally died with this freeze.
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Yup. All hail The King™ of snow storms.
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This is also mentioned in the Northeast Snowstorms books by Kocin and Uccellini. Some of our biggest "surprise" winter events were not detected until we got inside D4.
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Agreed. I wish operational guidance would stop at Day 7. Too much extrapolation beyond that. Let the ensembles take over after that.
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Wonder if the long range stuff is models reverting back to climo state? We saw that last year where beyond D10 guidance kept trying to advertise a solid pattern that never materialized.
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If we're not in the 50s on Christmas this year I'll consider it a miracle. Christmas 2015 we had Praying Mantis out and daffodils coming up.
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Good to see
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Would be nice to get 3"-5" regionwide then a dryslot. Then we get back into cold weather in a day or two. Just don't want it immediately melted off or washed away.
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Heisy coming down to post in our threads is never a good sign.
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Yup. Wind direction matters. You get a screaming east wind and it's sleet city. But turn that into a north-northeast or northeast wind and we're draining cold air from interior New England. Geography matters.
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You wonder if the Canadian and GFS are better at handling the NS energy and therein homing in on a threat quicker than the Euro?
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Major Lake Effect Snowstorm: Nov 29-Dec 4th
Eskimo Joe replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Congrats New York, you made the Japanese news. Really incredible stuff ongoing there. -
IIRC, the GFS outperformed the Euro with the 2016 event.
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^Oh yea big 1030+ high baby.
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Keep the Alaska/Inside Passage Ridge and we're going to score.
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Our source air looks primed.
