Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
Eskimo Joe replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
By HR84 on the 18z GFS, 00z Friday, the surface low is in interior South Carolina and the 700mb temps are still below freezing from EZF to the Bay Bridge. Much colder than the 00z, 06z, and 12z runs from today. -
Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
Eskimo Joe replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yup, it's colder at 850 across the entire area even back through Erie (-10 now versus -7 previous run) and up through Philly. Good to see. -
Damn
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Nice
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FYI, MD 94 is being closed down at the Howard/Montgomery County border due to icing conditions and trees coming down.
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12z sounding from IAD shows a pocket of dry air aloft.
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25/14 in Reisterstown
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My deepest sympathies to you during this trying time.
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NAM is an ice palace. Nice.
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LWX extends the Winter Weather Advisory for Mason Dixon: https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=54220340
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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED
Eskimo Joe replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yup. Plus the low is still south of us so no erosion of 925 or surface temps. -
Warning text for CHO mentions IP, which would indicate LWX doesn't have as much confidence right now for a straight freezing rain event.
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This is typical for a La Nina event.
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Curious to see if this is the start of a trend that might reveal itself more on the 18z guidance, or if the Euro is out to lunch again.
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Euro would be problematic for utility companies and DOT/fire departments.
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Off an on flurries, even a period of TV Snow™ earlier this afternoon in Reisterstown. We got a solid snow pack and it doesn't seem like it'll go anywhere over the next week. Very nice.
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For reference, here is the winter storm / ice storm warning criteria from LWX:
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Ah yes, light ZR at night.
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Yup. Icing is an uneven distribution, and frankly 0.2" zr at 27 degrees is worse than a driving rain at 31 degrees.
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Just got out of EMT class. A couple.of snowflakes in Westminster off Kate Wagner Rd.
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LWXs watch lines up with WPCs icing area nicely:
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Correct
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From an impact size, Event #1 could be the bigger event. Prolonged, light ZR / icing events can accrete much faster than heavier precip storms because of less latent heat release and faster accumulation on exposed or elevated surfaces. Unless it's in the low 20s, rainfall rates above 0.2"/hour won't convert to ice fast.
