Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Looking at the QPF panels for the 3k NAM and RGEM there appears to be a nudge up and better distribution of the moisture from the cities N&W.
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SPC's 12z HREF is running. 00z HREF was 0.5" to 1.0" mean QPF across the I-81 to I-95 corridor.
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Warnings coming out shortly.
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Previous runs of the HRRR has outright precip hole after the initial round of moisture. The 00z run appears to have that pretty much gone. Things lighten up, but it's not a nasty dry slot or anything.
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00z HRRR at 14z Thursday, (HR 38), DCA is upper 20s at the surface.
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I have the 00z HRRR out to HR37 on COD and it looks pretty good from EZF north.
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How wet?
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There's been a last minute trend for drier and deamplification within HR36 this winter. I'm hoping the 18z Euro isn't sniffing out a trend.
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I think that map's a bit pessimistic. Aloft looks a bit colder and there's going to be sleet on top of that.
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Euro is 6" - 10" for Montgomery County.
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Is it drier areawide, and if so, by about how much?
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Yup. Nothing worse than praying the night before the event that we get the cold air in at 3am when the precip starts at 5 and then waking up to 34/33 and white rain.
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^oh man that is NICE
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Winds ripping pretty good in Westminster. Temp down to 37.
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If you're in the mid 20s with moderate precip, it's going to accumulate.
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GFS give Short Pump the ole' middle finger.
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Hush. Never doubt the ability of something to pull the football away last minute.
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GFS is noice for BWI, DCA, and IAD. Even down to EZF does better.
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Watch coming out shortly.
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You've been bearish all year, so this is exciting to see. What are your thoughts on the NAM being quicker than everything else?
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EPS is really nice, colder across the board and a couple of double digit hits even in to the beltway and I-95. FWIW, since we're at about HR48 to 55 prior to start, this is probably the last useful run of the ensembles because they tend to cluster inside HR 48.
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For our SW members:
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12z suite was solid overall from I-66 north. Two days ago we were staring at a warm rain. Would like to see the NAM twins start going colder/wetter.
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Yup. This time last year we were chasing D15 phantom patter changes.
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WBAL's favorite model, the RPM, has EZF and even St. Mary's City starting as snow for a couple of hours. Definitely a colder tick across the board.
