Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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January Medium/Long Range: A snowy January ahead?
Eskimo Joe replied to mappy's topic in Mid Atlantic
18z GFS is a class big dog KU event. Just wow! -
What a beautiful area. Snow in the mountains is the best. Enjoy!
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I'm so excited about this especially. It's been years since there was snow on my lights!
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Never bet against Parr's Ridge.
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Based off Charleston, WV radar and surface observations (mPING and mesonet/AWOS/ASOS), the northern edge of the snow shield will probably make it up to the PA Turnpike. Looks good for the northern folks.
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First returns to the SW on Sterling radar.
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Sky went from sunny to pure cirrus over the past 30 min.
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Based off mPING reports snow starts quickly after returns move overhead.
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Precip approaching WV/KY border. Cirrus faintly visible to my west.
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Your daughter needs to understand that sacrifices must be made.
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Maryland Mesonet two and four inch soil temps have cooled significantly into the low to mid 30s. Whatever falls will accumulate quick.
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Looks like Euro ticked the front end CAD better too. All good things as we close.
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Always love the Ferrier output. Would rather underforecast snow than overforecast.
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Snow weenie dreams are made of things like this. Just wow.
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Dewpoints in the single digits all the way down into the southern Carolinas. As @mitchnicksaid, it's great to have a solid antecedent airmass this time.
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Winter Storm Watches extended just to our north by CTP for the Mason-Dixon counties.
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I could see CTP nudging the Mason-Dixon counties into an advisory then maybe a late upgrade if things go well up there.
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^man that's some sick lift. Someone is going to get legit fluff from this storm. My jackpot for this would be Winchester up through the Catoctins.
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Parr's Ridge also helps with a bit of lift. I know @wxmeddler has some research background on that.
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12z UKMET has a closed vortex over the St. Lawrence Valley, the GFS does not. That appears to be a key difference at 500mb.
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For the first time in years I'm legitimately optimistic about the chances with a storm. This might be the one that kicks off a solid period of winter.
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That's some insane front end thump on the NAM. Wow.
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Can't wait to see the Bittinger and Frostburg snow depths from this event.
