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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    My window for real action is 1/6 and beyond. As many others here have said, the 1/4 wave appears to be the framework for a very workable pattern for many. If we have to downsize or shift that event to set up the pieces in the medium range, then I'm game.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    ^This. There's nothing more depressing than one big storm that you know is going to melt off in a few days and then peak winter climo is 55 and sunny.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    Agreed. As it stands now, is we score on 1/4 it would be a boom scenario. We do have decent cold air arriving from a fresh source region with this event, so it would not take a lot for us to score a decent advisory-level event.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Quite anxious to see the 12z Euro, EPS, and GEFS come in. We might have the first legit winter window in several years opening up before our eyes here.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    Perfect. Cold and light/mod event after light/mod event. Yea baby. Griteater, "classic boot pattern. Woof"
  6. Eskimo Joe
    12z GFS just wants to snow. Nice.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    12z GFS is plenty cold for the wave on the 4th. Whatever falls would 100% accumulate.
  8. Eskimo Joe
    AMS is 1/12 to 1/16 I believe. Bank on a KU event.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    So, uh, the 12z GFS is tying to bring back the 1/4 event.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Wow that's much better than I thought at 805 and the surface. Sign me up. Going to be interesting to see how good this Euro AI model is this winter.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    Best track is to see the primary go into western Kentucky or Tennessee and die a quick death.
  12. Eskimo Joe
    ^primary low is way, way too far west, IMO. Looks like mix to cold rain.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Pretty rare to see Tomer honking this much. Usually he's as pessimistic as me.
  14. Eskimo Joe
    Rolled 6 times. Got 'none' five times.
  15. Eskimo Joe
  16. Eskimo Joe
    18Z GEFS has 70% probs of 1" snowfall by Jan 9th for BWI, DCA, IAD. 90% probs for MRB.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    These charts are a great illustration of the dichotomy between the OP and ENS of each model past D5. There's wild swings in the OP, the the ENS are pretty lockstep.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    ^this time last year the long range EPS snowfall probs were near bupkis. Glad to see we have a chance at //something//.
  19. Eskimo Joe
    Happy 14th anniversary to a heartbreaker of an event for the NW crew, and a Christmas miracle to the low landers.
  20. Eskimo Joe
    Someone has been hitting the egg nog too hard.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    Thanks @donsutherland1! Really amazing to see how important it is to have a cooperative pacific.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Going to be honest, we're trying for our first Garrett County mesonet site in Bittinger. It would be great if we can get the concrete poured 12/30 and the equipment install finished on 1/6. That would give everyone on this site additional surface data in western Maryland. Hopefully we can squeeze this in before things get snowy.
  23. Eskimo Joe
  24. Eskimo Joe
    All good buddy. Merry Christmas, hope we jackpot in Jan and Feb!
  25. Eskimo Joe
    It would be like the days of old.
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