I hope it ages poorly and I have to eat a buffet of crow, but I could see DCA, PHL, IAD, and BWI pitching a shutout in the snowfall department after tomorrow.
Looking more like we're going to swing and miss this year. Our "epic" patterns get stuck in Day 15 - 20 eternally anymore. Next year is a La Nina so we can write that one off as well. Maybe 2025?
The past 48 hours have done real work on ground temps. The 2 inch soil temp on our Clarksville mesonet site is down to 33 degrees. It was 40 a few days ago.
Feb 2 to 18 is the climo window in these parts for Top 10 snow events. If we can't manage at least 1 healthy warning level event this year in that window, then we are truly forever screwed.
Beyond HR 72, my preferred model suites are the 00z and 12z because they incorporate fresh upper air data.
The Pacific Ocean is a data hole. While we have increased capabilities with GOES-R, nothing will beat a sampled atmosphere from an upper air balloon.