We're scared from a decade of rug pulls and great patterns that are just two weeks away. It's smart to be cautious. A legit advisory level snowfall before Christmas, that doesn't melt off in two days, would do wonders for this subforum.
Both the 12z GEFS, 12z AI-GEFS, and the 12z AI-ENS have several warning level hits from I-95 and points west. We may not be that far off from something here.
Yes, THAT is how we win and its inside an established pattern. Not a wave breaking into something as we're setting up. Really would like to see at least a slightly -NAO to help lock in our cold air though.
Bittinger and Frostburg mesonet sites showing a flip to westerly winds. Looks like the front is starting to crest the Eastern Continential Divide. Here's hoping we don't torch into the 70s prefrontal.
We still have a week to find our fail point. Could be any of the following:
1.) High slides offshore and we nibble away at CAD with antecedent southeast winds.
2.) Last minute de-amplification trend.
3.) Primary drives into Pittsburgh and it's just cold rain.