Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Euro continues to open the freezer in the long range. Man just give us some snow covered ground and it'll be a cold shot to remember.
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Euro has a decent vort max over Minnesota, the GFS does not. Seems to interfere with the coastal low.
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Clear west trend on the Canadian
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Looks like the 12z UKMET was better for northern areas?
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Yes. That's excellent. Looks like light snow back to the I-81 corridor on the mean.
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UKMET did too?
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The Reno upper air site sampled a record western ridge at 591dm. That ob was in place for the 12z model suite, and voila...everything tucks closer to the coast. Do not underestimate the importance of upper air data beyond HR90.
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
IMO, if the 12z suite tomorrow has this or better, then we are likely onto something. -
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to LVblizzard's topic in Philadelphia Region
Trough has progressed further west each run, and this is not isolated to the GFS. The Euro, Euro AI, EPS, and UKMET all have this in some fashion. It certainly looks like most of the Delaware Valley could be falling into a light to potentially moderate weekend snowfall. -
Going to be very interested in the GEFS. If the snowfall mean ticks up, then we might be onto something here.
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What rule is this?
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Yes to the 12z GFS. Everyone wins east of I-81.
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Snow on the GA/FL border...this is gonna be close?
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Agreed.
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00z Euro dumped an legit ice box on most of the US towards the end of January. If we can manage any snow cover, it wouldn't surprise me to see some days with highs in the lower to mid 20s.
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Decent trend on the EPS overnight at 00z and 06z. For the Sunday event. Looks like 40% chance of an inch of snow from I-95 east. 00z/06z Euro-AI also bumped the odds of light snow up too. Trough is further west.
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Pretty wild that coastal Georgia will see more snow than us at this rate.
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You are not wrong in this assessment. We truly have been in a terrible slump and there's no end in sight unfortunately. It reaffirms my notion that without a favorable Pacific, our snow odds are likely killed in the cradle.
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It's insane how hostile this region is to snow.
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HR276 on the 18z GFS op is hilarious. Snow from northern tip of Georgia all the way up to Maine.
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50" for Pittsburgh...rofl
