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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Eskimo Joe
    As @wxmeddler noted the other day, the real tragedy is KMTN rain gauge failing.
  2. Eskimo Joe
    Harford County up to Lancaster County getting smoked.
  3. Eskimo Joe
    That cell firing up just south of Fallston looks legit from my house. Big tower shooting up quickly.
  4. Eskimo Joe
    Unless something changes, it looks pretty bleak south of the PA line.
  5. Eskimo Joe
    I'm an Eskimo that lives south of Mason-Dixon. I've accepted my fate.
  6. Eskimo Joe
    Speaking strictly from parameters on the SPC mesoanalysis page, I'd favor NE Maryland into the western suburbs of Philly today. Weaker lapse rates may be offset by the hillier terrain there as things coalesce.
  7. Eskimo Joe
    I do in fact dare
  8. Eskimo Joe
    Could you imagine if this was 100+ air temps?
  9. Eskimo Joe
    Hey Ji is actually trying to be positive this time. At least give him until October before he has his annual crash out.
  10. Eskimo Joe
    Normalized CAPE and 12z RAOB from IAD/RNK/PIT would argue skinny CAPE profiles. Shear is also pretty weak too, but the 1.8" - 2" PWATs would suggest isolated flash flooding is the bigger risk, especially around any surface boundaries.
  11. Eskimo Joe
    RIP winter
  12. Eskimo Joe
    No trigger, limited shear.
  13. Eskimo Joe
    Leesburg Airport (JYO) just gusted to 51 mph.
  14. Eskimo Joe
  15. Eskimo Joe
  16. Eskimo Joe
    I'm seeing more and more of the "EF-0 tornadoes aren't bad and don't need warnings". Couldn't disagree more: EF-0 tornadoes damage houses, cars, and are a direct danger to people outside. I would make the argument that we should work to shrink the size of polygons and keep warnings to less than 30 minutes, those would narrow the impact, especially in more marginal environments.
  17. Eskimo Joe
    My earlier optimism for overnight rain is fizzling.
  18. Eskimo Joe
    Flood watch for the metros seems justified.
  19. Eskimo Joe
  20. Eskimo Joe
    After the 2012 derecho, PEPCO spent a lot to study the type and height of trees in their right of way. They determined it was best to plant smaller trees like birch and red buds, and even offered residents a chance to cut down bit trees and have them replaced with smaller ones at no cost. It was incredibly successful and I do not understand why that program was not maintained. Yup. My neighborhood was build between 1960 - 1970. Our big issue is that BGE doesn't do tree trimming within the right of way with any set method or schedule. In the ten years that we've lived here, we've only seen one routing tree trimming crew. Compare that to Adams Electrical Cooperative when we lived in PA, who were out every other year.
  21. Eskimo Joe
    I truly hope this El Nino comes in weaker, but that seems unlikely.
  22. Eskimo Joe
    Interesting temp/snowfall website tool. If you're a snow lover, the odds are not in your favor in these parts for big ENSO events:
  23. Eskimo Joe
    Sure thing. Unlike SPC, the marginal flood risks are so benign that I'm not sure it's worth including.
  24. Eskimo Joe
    Anything Slight Risk or higher would be great honestly. The worst flooding of my career was in a Slight Risk last July when inside the beltway got slammed.
  25. Eskimo Joe
    The gaps in the precipitation and drought have largely spared the metros from any wider issues. If this rain came as one longer fused batch of precip, there would've been a few water rescues at least. On a similar note, I wish WPC would develop an event archive like SPC does. It would be great for research.
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