Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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18z HRRR is insistent on //some// rain for everyone, but it really tries to run a few decent thunderstorms north of I-66 that drop localized 1" amounts.
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April is just about in the books, so we turn our attention to May flowers and the prospects of thunderstorms. CPC says cool and wet may be in order first.
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That would be perfect actually.
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2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion
Eskimo Joe replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
That event was the biggest tornado outbreak that I can remember. The only other event that even comes close in my mind was April 16-17, 2011. Both events even spun tornadoes up into our area.- 293 replies
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Nov 2026 - March 2027.
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M0.09" not even enough to run down the gutters.
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If this were winter, Ji would be going nuclear.
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M0.6" Lisbon mesonet site.
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An impressively warm April.
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18z NAM absolutely laughs at any rain chances this weekend.
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We're so used to rug pulls that it's hard to get excited at any D4 threat, let alone a D10.
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CC: @usedtobe and @BlizzardNole
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We need several long round of slow, soaking rain and unfortunately that just doesn't seem to be in the cards.
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Shocker, 00z Euro moved precip maximums to PA. We get some, but nothing sustained it seems.
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I'm impressed with this airmass. It's late April and I'm only at 50° as we approach noon.
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Only M0.11" RSTM2 COOP site. Didn't even get under the cars wet. To further illustrate how dry things have been, the Thurmont mesonet site recorded almost 0.4" of rain today, but the four inch soil moisture probe hasn't budged.
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More records fall today: BWI: 91 (breaks old record of 90 set in 2002 and 2012) HGR: 90 (breaks old record of 88 set in 2002) IAD: 92 (breaks old record of 91 set in 2002) MRB: 92 (breaks old record of 90 set in 1941, 1976, and 2002)
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BWI breaks the record.
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I have a feeling that station will be important for tracking bay breeze fronts.
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We don't need a flood, just a steady and soaking rain that totals about 1.5" regionwide. You could parse it out about 0.1" - 0.2" per hour over several hours.
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Nearly half and inch of rain across portions of far northern Frederick County, as well as Carroll and Baltimore counties. Yet the two and four inch soil moisture values barely moved on any of the mesonet stations in this area. It really goes to show you how thirsty the vegetation is right now.
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Where are my Calvert County folks? @usedtobe We've got one more station coming shortly in Prince Frederick.
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Despite a Trace of rainfall at my house, only Thurmont, Harney, and Westminster mesonet sites recorded rainfall today.
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Heck of a way to run an El Nino
