Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Looks like today may be another NOVA special.
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Latest HRRR is essentially a whiff north of DC. NOVA and southern MD get all the action.
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Jersey wildfires and northeast flow will get you every time.
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Flood Watch extended to PA border.
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Not a drop overnight in Reisterstown.
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What info do you need?
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Backdoor cold front appears to have settled over the MD 97 corridor west of the bay, then extends along the US 50 corridor on Delmarva. Pretty evident on mesonet data. Looks like a wind shift and spike just before the front crosses. Someone is going to get dumped on.
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We also need a respectable 500 mb pattern. Looks like the "best" climo is one that features a ridge flexing NW -> SE from Kentucky to Bermuda. Kinda of laying the train tracks for us.
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Too many people in my neighborhood have poured chemicals in their lawn. We're the only property that has them anymore in our street.
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Even Berlin hit 90° today.
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We do best with derecho climatology when we have BIG heat and a stout EML.
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Sun looks like it's trying to poke out.
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Which models are better at this?
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You're missing the point. 9/10 times the front never makes it that far northeast. Then the 1/10 time happens and there's like 20 EF0 / EF-1 tornadoes across the DC / Baltimore area. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
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Yes. Warm fronts are devious.
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Cool mesonet stuff happening near there soon
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There's a solid easterly flow advocating a decent marine layer across the lowlands.
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If you read the SPC convective outlooks leading up to that event, you will notice several interesting things: 1.) SPC went 30% probabilistic on D3. That's anomalous. 2.) The Day 3 and Day 2 mentioned negative tilted upper low. . .in June. Red flag that we're dealing with a potent event. 3.) We closed well on this event: dynamics and instability. Had we had even an hour or two of legitimate, full sun then it would've been a top 10 tornado day in this region. To me, that event is the benchmark for non-tropical tornado days in these parts.
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Yes. Intermittent smell of burning pine today was odd.
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Was sitting at a bar in Cambridge yesterday headed back from Ocean City. Saw the activity racing over the bay Bridge and decided to wait it out. Definitely some cold temps aloft, looked like Barlin had decent hail.
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True that. I was joking with the wife at dinner that I should be putting the Halloween decorations out and tuning up the snow blower.
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I did not see any storm related calls in our 911 system from the Montgomery County TOR or SVR cells.
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Just not enough surface instability to get things going.
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Based off radar and SPC meso analysis, I would argue the tornado risk is probably focused south of I-66, perhaps even further south towards I-64 and the tidewater or Virginia. The DC -> Baltimore metro regions seem to be in between the best dynamics and surface instability.
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New meso out. 80% chance of a watch, I'd argue it's a tornado watch until 10pm.
