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Eskimo Joe

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe

  1. Euro appears to be advisory level snow west of US 15?
  2. Good to see the MJO crawl through Phase 7, 8, 1. The other year it damn near blasted through over 4 days.
  3. If it's not the Pacific being against us, it's the Atlantic. Within 12 hours everything goes poof. Winter just doesn't have the punch it used to have.
  4. Antedecent southeast winds are a death knell for us. Hope this isn't a trend.
  5. We're scared from a decade of rug pulls and great patterns that are just two weeks away. It's smart to be cautious. A legit advisory level snowfall before Christmas, that doesn't melt off in two days, would do wonders for this subforum.
  6. @stormtrackerwhat kind of beer did you brine your turkey with? Got pics of the finished product?
  7. Both the 12z GEFS, 12z AI-GEFS, and the 12z AI-ENS have several warning level hits from I-95 and points west. We may not be that far off from something here.
  8. Euro has been trending towards a more neutral, slightly negative AO/NAO after Dec 5th. Good to see.
  9. Euro is monthly climo snowfall for all of the folks north and west of I-95. Sign me up.
  10. Yes, THAT is how we win and its inside an established pattern. Not a wave breaking into something as we're setting up. Really would like to see at least a slightly -NAO to help lock in our cold air though.
  11. 37 for the low. Another weak sauce cool shot.
  12. High is in a bad spot. Southeast winds just eroding the cad.
  13. Several gusts near 40 mph from Garrett County east through the immediate DC/Baltimore suburbs.
  14. ^that would give everyone north and west of I-95 close to December climo snowfall
  15. Hopefully we don't get above 55 degrees all winter. There is something deeply unwholesome about 70 degrees in the middle of winter.
  16. Full climo for the month and we reinvigorate the December 5th Rule. Sold.
  17. Bittinger and Frostburg mesonet sites showing a flip to westerly winds. Looks like the front is starting to crest the Eastern Continential Divide. Here's hoping we don't torch into the 70s prefrontal.
  18. 12z GFS really tries to see something up around the 5th, 8th, and 10th. If we can't score at least climo snowfall then we'll need a regional exorcism.
  19. RSTM2 COOP site: M0.47" overnight M1.63" November to date. Glad to see additional precip. Our aquifers need it.
  20. My benchmark is 1" - 3" that doesn't get washed away. Would get us to December climo.
  21. 12z GFS has a much better CAD signature compared to its 00z/06z iterations.
  22. We still have a week to find our fail point. Could be any of the following: 1.) High slides offshore and we nibble away at CAD with antecedent southeast winds. 2.) Last minute de-amplification trend. 3.) Primary drives into Pittsburgh and it's just cold rain.
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