Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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12z "traditional" Euro EPS for DCA. Wow.
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January 25-26 Winter Storm Potential
Eskimo Joe replied to Ralph Wiggum's topic in Philadelphia Region
The 12z "traditional" Euro EPS really upped the ante for Philly. Several double digit hits, and only a few duds (less than 3"). Out of 50 members, I only count 11% (6 members) with less than 3" of snow. Everything else is warning level or better. Again, what a signal from Dr. No at this range. -
18z ICON likely would've been a foot plus from I-70 south if it ran further.
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Posting this for our upper Delmarva, northern MD folks. The 12z "traditional" Euro EPS really upped the ante for Philly. Several double digit hits, and only a few duds (less than 3"). Out of 50 members, I only count 11% (6 members) with less than 3" of snow. Everything else is warning level or better. Again, what a signal from Dr. No at this range.
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Today we start to cross the HR120 (D5) threshold. Should see the guidance really tighten up over the next 24 hours. Would caution folks here that might result in some extreme solutions getting eliminated and thus, reducing a mean snowfall here or there. That does not mean this is "trending towards a bust", but rather just narrowing towards a better forecast.
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For our lower Delmarva / southern MD / VA tidewater folks. Only two 12z Euro AI EPS members have below 10" of snow for Virginia Beach. What an incredibly consistent signal at this range, which is right in the Euro AI EPS's wheelhouse.
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Yes @wxmeddlerand I were on a panel he moderated.
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It has a 50% chance of IAD & DCA exceeding a foot of snow.
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Yup. Nothing major. Best snowstorm for many in a decade and it's warning level for everyone with no precip issues.
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6" - 10" Mason-Dixon to I-66 to US 50. Up to a foot south of that. Nice.
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You're not a deb, you're raising several legitimate issues. As others have said, this event has ingredients incorporated that other storms have not had: favorable MJO phase, southern stream energy, strong boundary. Caution is certainly advised, but this is the best snow setup we've had in years.
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He's very cautious abut this event.
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Well said. One other item worth mentioning is that as we near an event, the "extreme" solutions tend to fade. If that happens, you see the few rogue 20"+ ensemble members come back to reality and that can tweak the ensemble mean downward. This translates to people thinking the event is "falling apart" when in fact it's just leaning towards a moderate/significant incident versus and major/historic.
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It's a de-amplified run. To see the ensemble mean push 6"- 10" regionwide as a "fail" is still a sign of a potentially healthy event.
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12z UKMET is a legitimate HECS regionwide, just wow. The GFS really seems to be on its own thus far. It's over 24" for @HighStakes, @wxmvpete, @psuhoffman and @mappy.
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Less interaction between the northern and southern stream. Also the southern stream get sheared out coming into the southwestern US.
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Top 10 snowfalls in this neck of the woods are generally 20"+ at the big airports. We've seen this tendency to de-amplify system between HR 84 - 144 this winter so caution is still advised. Until the key players get into the upper air network we need to temper expectations.
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Coastal low is there but doesn't strengthen quick enough to bring true blizzard conditions. Would be worried about a warm nose on Delmarva possible flipping things to sleet as we close.
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Euro has started to advertise some weak coastal trying to pop in the past couple of runs. Something to keep and eye on.
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ICON is a legitimate disaster for ice and sleet accumulations across the Carolinas and deep south. Wow.
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EZF to RIC to SBY is going to get their snow climo in a week. Wow. What a way to break a snow drought.
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06z Euro-AI has trended stronger with the high coming out of Canada. Really would limit northward jump in precip if this is true.
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NBM jumped significantly. Near record snowfall south of DC to RIC.
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With so many events, we tend to see the 06z guidance waffle or dry up. With the 06z Euro et al beefing up, it's a great sign. We're almost at the point where a "fail" would only be 4" - 8".
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E/E rule!
