Eskimo Joe
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Everything posted by Eskimo Joe
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Yea its entire possible in the next decade we reset to 5"-10" regional snowfall climo. El Ninos will just become cold rain winter.
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Death knell for widespread snow
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Trigger Warning: I'm going to be honest, I thoroughly believe it's climate change. The oceans are warming, especially the Pacific. Formerly marginal patterns are now outright hostile. This translates to our once marginal events where it's be 30°-32° and a Coating - 2", are now 35°-37° and rain.
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I'm at 5" seasonal total in NW Baltimore County. At this point, I'll be surprised if I exceed a foot for seasonal snowfall. Sure it's a La Nina, but the base state over the past decade seems to have become extremely hostile to snow south of Mason-Dixon.
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12z Euro opens the polar ice box next week. Gimme.
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Definite uptick on mean snowfall on the 12z EPS for the Thurs/Fri event.
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Paging @MillvilleWx, @wxmeddler, and @wxmvpete to see if they know.
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Yes. Fun things happen with you have an upper level low closing off to your south.
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Would advocate for storm mode inside of HR 48 and a heavily moderated thread.
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Looks like Euro and GFS give everyone a 2"-4" event with localized 5" spots.
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FWIW, 12z GEFS trended better for everyone. A lot of the complete whiffs or OTS misses are fading. Looking more likely that we get some kind of accumulating frozen from this first event.
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Bonus for holiday weekend snow!
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00z/06z Euro had that as well.
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A lot of snow squall warnings on the Allegheny Front and Laurel Highlands. Maybe we get something this afternoon?
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One of my top 5 events. A colossal forecast bust from DC to Philly. Had almost a foot of snow in Lancaster.
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To my eye, this is very Jan 26, 2011 esque
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Closed 500 low over western/central Tennessee by HR 111. Surface low over western South Carolina. Everyone east of I-81 starts as rain, but the flip to snow seems imminent.
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I'm at HR 108 and the presentation at 500 mb looks good to my eye. Passing through western Tennessee and starting to go neutral.
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NAM is insistent on snow squalls even into the immediate suburbs.
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There is no way you whiff with a 500 vort pass like that on the Icon. I call BS.
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Heck of a way to run a winter in these parts. Blech.
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Agreed. @Terpeastsaid it best. As long as the 500 energy is to our south, we're in a good place.
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Jan 26, 2011 also developed early and everyone north of I-66 scored.
