Thanks for the updates. Maybe HRRR wasn’t completely off it’s rocker this time for the lake effect potential. At least for SE WI; as NE IL yet to be fully realized.
Currently in Harwood Heights. Went outside a little after 3 to grab something for work & nice to see it already snowing. Going to ride my 2 days ago call of 9.9” at ORD, but I think I’ll be a touch low.
GFS-Elect seems to also have the earlier precip onset that the HRRR had for N IL. Where forecasts have projected a close-to-6pm start time, this has almost 3 inches on the ground come 6pm.
I’m going to assume @RCNYILWX was part of the Q&A that the NWS Chicago Twitter page had tonight. Looking through, some good, fair, and well rounded answers for 240 characters.
For anyone who wishes to read through:
The P&C for Elmwood Park is 6-10” for Saturday alone, with 90% snow listed for Sunday & 50% Sunday night. So 8-12” seems with what they’re kinda leaning towards outside of the warning text.
I agree it is a bit of an oversight to be pushing two separate low-max levels.
06z NAM kinda drier in terms of snowfall amounts over N IL. It backed off 1 inch 18z to 00z, and now another inch or so from 00z to 6z. Here’s Chicago’s Kuchera (Pivotal) NAM snow amounts since 12z yesterday:
12z: 12.8
18z: 11.5
0z: 10.4
6z: 9.6