raindancewx

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6 01APR2020 26.8 0.8 27.9 0.6 28.1 0.6 29.1 0.7 Still El Nino warmth. Cold is really deepening below though.

Been impressively cold in Montana so far. Sometimes Apr-May is a good hint for the Fall - will have to keep watching how the month unfolds.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 2019 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2020 0.5 0.5 YR MON TOTAL ClimAdjust ANOM 2019 10 27.20 26.75 0.45 2019 11 27.23 26.75 0.48 2019 12 27.12 26.65 0.47 2020 1 27.15 26.45 0.70 2020 2 27.12 26.66 0.45 2020 3 27.69 27.21 0.48 CPC has this a +0.54C El Nino for JFM. Its pretty likely FMA will be warm enough to make this an El Nino, as Nino 3.4 is still pretty warm. It's still six weeks early for this to be final for the West, but here is an early look at how well my snowfall map did - big bust for the big cities in the NE, but even there I had New England near average. Pretty happy with it overall, for something issued in early October. High mountains in the Rockies, NW were snowy, TX/mid-south generally below average, save West Texas. California was snowier than expected. Midwest was generally snowy where I had it - Dakotas, Missouri, Nebraska, Illinois, etc. Been pretty happy with my Spring Outlook so far too.

Euro initialization update shows Nino 3.4/3 warmed in March from February, relative to the baseline of those months.

Canadian has given up on a La Nina for 2020-21. New run is on the left. Would probably be a -0.3C winter given what it shows. Previously it had a La Nina developing June-July, now it kind of has it developing in August and ending pretty fast.

New Canadian should be out later - for now CPC is copying the CFS forecast.

The Canadian actually had a very good forecast for March on Feb 29th - new outlook from them should be out tomorrow. Definitely beat the CFS - The forecast big -NAO is actually pretty consistent with the cold West the CFS has for April. The wet signal for the CO/WY border is there too. The CFS map is actually pretty close to what I forecast in my Spring Outlook from February, just a bit colder everywhere.

Despite CPC kicking and screaming about calling this an El Nino, JFM will once again be at least +0.5C in an ONI sense, for the fourth trimester. If April doesn't fall below +0.5, it becomes an El Nino officially. CPC uses 27.2C as the Nino 3.4 baseline for average in March. March should be around 27.8C. Since the numbers are rounded, April probably only needs to hit +0.35C for this to be considered an El Nino event, as that would be enough for +0.5C in FMA. Subsurface heat content for 100-180W is still around +0.5 in March too. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 25SEP2019 20.0-0.5 24.8-0.1 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.1 02OCT2019 20.0-0.6 25.1 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.7 1.0 09OCT2019 19.7-1.0 24.8-0.1 27.1 0.4 29.5 0.9 16OCT2019 20.6-0.2 25.3 0.4 27.5 0.8 29.7 1.1 23OCT2019 19.7-1.3 25.0 0.1 27.3 0.6 29.7 1.0 30OCT2019 20.8-0.4 25.4 0.5 27.4 0.7 29.6 0.9 06NOV2019 20.7-0.6 25.2 0.3 27.2 0.5 29.3 0.7 13NOV2019 20.9-0.6 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.8 29.6 0.9 20NOV2019 21.7-0.1 25.6 0.6 27.4 0.7 29.5 1.0 27NOV2019 22.5 0.4 25.4 0.4 27.0 0.4 29.3 0.8 04DEC2019 22.5 0.1 25.3 0.2 26.9 0.3 29.4 0.9 11DEC2019 23.1 0.5 25.5 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.5 1.0 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2 25MAR2020 27.0 0.8 27.5 0.3 27.9 0.5 28.9 0.6

April looks like a much more interesting than March, I think we all got a bit spoiled last month. There was a sh-t load of moisture in the Southwest this month, it just missed south of me, unlike in late November. The CFS has trended very cold for April in the West, except for where I am. We'll see where it ends up - it usually has some skill for the next month this close to it.

Those of you who root for La Ninas need to find a way to get rid of that heat by 180W. I'm not sure it can be eroded fast enough by Fall for anything other than a weak La Nina.

Still hasn't hit 70F officially in Albuquerque - usually this about when we hit 75F for the first time. It's been warm though, just consistently slightly above average, so no 70s yet. April is still looking like a 3.5 month lag of the prior pattern, i.e. mid-Dec to mid-Jan. You do have to shove the cold/warmth north in light of the strengthening subtropical highs. But otherwise, looks similar to me. Close to what I had in my Spring Outlook too - I'm sure the CFS will change its mind rapidly though over the next week.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 18MAR2020 26.9 0.5 27.6 0.4 28.1 0.8 29.4 1.2

Lot of rain for the SW recently...like late November, and now a big Nor'easter moving near the bench mark. Check and check, for the late Nov / early Dec pattern.

Snow pack is still decent for Northern New Mexico. March is still cold in the mornings at the mountain level, and even in Albuquerque it has not hit 70F yet, so not a lot of melting in the afternoons at the high elevations. This has been a weird March though, pretty humid here, but not much to show for it, just a lot of warm mornings and cloudy days. Not a single day of March has dropped below freezing. March is the month that accounts for ~1/2 of warming over the past century here, so not that surprising. Southern New Mexico has absolutely seen the repeat of the late November pattern, but it did come in slightly east from where it was back then. I did have parts of CO fairly average for Spring precipitation, we'll see how that goes. I had most of the US warm in March, so the outlook is off to a good start.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.htmlTable?time,PDO PDO is now solidly negative. By the JISAO/Mantua method, it is -0.68. Lowest PDO value since October 2013. Long-term, that correlates to drier conditions in the SW, and warmer weather in the Eastern US, especially the south.

Looks promising for rain and mountain snow down here too. Local NWS is talking about 12-18" for the mountains. I think the highest peaks may even see more. I'm expecting rain to brief snow even in the valleys. We've only had one low 32F or less this March after a high number from Oct-Feb - will be a bit of a shock to people if we get several more.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 18DEC2019 23.3 0.4 25.5 0.3 27.2 0.6 29.5 1.1 25DEC2019 23.6 0.3 25.5 0.2 27.0 0.4 29.5 1.0 01JAN2020 23.7 0.1 25.7 0.3 27.2 0.7 29.6 1.2 08JAN2020 24.3 0.2 25.9 0.4 27.1 0.5 29.3 1.0 15JAN2020 24.2-0.2 25.6-0.1 27.0 0.4 29.2 0.9 22JAN2020 24.6-0.2 25.8 0.0 26.9 0.3 29.1 0.9 29JAN2020 25.3 0.2 26.1 0.2 27.4 0.8 29.3 1.1 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 27.0 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 11MAR2020 26.7 0.3 27.5 0.5 27.7 0.5 29.3 1.2 Still an El Nino. Subsurface is around +0.5 for 100-180W down to 300m below the surface.

The Bomb Cyclone was fun - lots of rain, heavy snow, tornadoes, flooding, hail, and record low pressure throughout the SW & Plains. The storm today and yesterday produced about half a month of precipitation down here. More coming next week. There was an SOI crash which supports it. March has been very warm nationally to date. All Marches since 1931 that follow a Fall when October was wetter than September see at least some precipitation in Albuquerque, and heavily favor a wet March long-term. Seems to be verifying once again. If you include last year, n=37 for the red line, and all Marches following Oct>Sept for precipitation feature at least some precipitation in March, with wet Marches (>0.5") far more likely than in Sept>Oct years.

Next week looks like another west cold / east warm week, that's often accompanied by storminess.

Euro has been trending toward a coherent MJO wave through the 'good' phases for interesting weather 1-2-3. In March, one is a strong wet signal (70% composite for NM shows up), and two is a strong cold signal. CPC agrees, and shows a cold wet pattern coming up mid month.

I know the models continue to show a La Nina, but Nino 4 remains at essentially record warmth, and the subsurface (100-180W, down to 200m-300m) is still very warm. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 05FEB2020 26.4 0.8 26.1 0.0 26.9 0.2 29.3 1.2 12FEB2020 26.1 0.1 26.6 0.3 26.8 0.1 28.9 0.9 19FEB2020 26.5 0.3 26.7 0.2 27.4 0.6 29.2 1.1 26FEB2020 27.2 1.0 27.1 0.4 27.4 0.5 29.1 1.0 04MAR2020 27.5 1.1 26.9 0.1 27.5 0.5 29.3 1.1 My Spring analogs actually point to a pretty bad hurricane season, and they had March pretty warm centered on the middle of the US, which seems right. Will be interesting to see how hurricane season plays out.

The GFS has what I call the 'legendary' pattern. Waves of subtropical moisture moving into New Mexico. Days on end. Cold enough for heavy snow in the mountains. I don't think I've ever seen a model depict this much moisture in New Mexico consistently in a non-monsoon month. It's probably way too much moisture, but verbatim, the mountains over 8,500 would get a foot of cement, and the highest mountains might get 3-5 feet, especially if the backdoor cold front helps wring out the moisture. That small area by Los Alamos is 3.0-3.5" precipitation, and it would be mostly snow.

Here is a look at winter (left) - my Spring analogs from February +2F were intended to match winter/March, and that looks promising so far. I was generally 0-2F too cold for highs in the West in my forecast, with the area between the Mississippi and the Appalachians 6-8F too cold. Rest of the US generally 2-4F too cold. In a weighted (spatial) sense, I'd say I was around 3.5F too cold nationally. I did warm up the Northern Plains from my analogs because (I said this back in the Fall) back to the 1890s, there have never been four severely cold winters up there. They had a slightly cold February, but pretty warm for the Dakotas/Montana this year, unlike the last three. I did not have the South, West Coast, or New England cold - the pattern in February was almost identical to my seasonal winter blend from October, but it didn't show up enough in the other months.

Fairly promising for mountain snow along the NM/CO border over the next week. Timing is exactly right for the 3.5 month lag of the late Nov pattern. Also follows some big time SOI crashes, and the MJO is relatively favorable too.

CPC ONI page updated - +0.5C for DJF. Third period with El Nino conditions by ONI. March should be warm enough for JFM to be El Nino conditions too. Feb-Apr is the only question really - but I think we get it.