raindancewx

The Jamstec has updated its Modoki values through March now. The DJF Modoki value was -0.08, way up from -0.48 last year. Negative Modoki values are generally events where Nino 1.2 is warmer than 3.4 by a lot, while positive Modoki events are when Nino 3.4 is warmer than 1.2 by a lot. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/DATA/emi.monthly.txt Some kind of blend of 1933-34, 1967-68, 1974-75, 1980-81, 1995-96, 2005-06 seems like the closest match to last winter based on the AMO, PDO, ONI, Solar, SW Monsoon, Modoki, and ONI in the prior year blend that I use for my winter outlooks. Unusual concentration of major hurricanes hitting Texas prior to winter among the closest matches to last winter.

We've had two 50+ snow/rain free streaks since mid-October here - but the second one ended today. BTW, the Atlantic is absolutely frigid all of the sudden. Might be the coldest May AMO since the warm phase began in 1995.

Here are the weeklies. Had my first rain since late March, and my first thunder and lightning since last September here. We had a mid-Oct to mid-Jan streak with no rain earlier, then a 54-day dry streak that ended today. Any type of new pattern has to be better here for moisture, with the exception of Feb/Mar when the SOI crash beat back the dryness temporarily. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0 18APR2018 24.1-1.2 27.2-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.6 0.1 25APR2018 24.3-0.7 27.1-0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.4 02MAY2018 24.2-0.6 26.9-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.9 0.2 09MAY2018 23.9-0.6 27.0-0.2 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.3 16MAY2018 23.8-0.4 26.9-0.2 27.8-0.1 29.0 0.2

Go go CFS. My Summer forecast did have a wet June, so it is nice to see continued model support for that. https://t.co/bxM368tWpU

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07MAR2018 26.0-0.4 26.0-0.9 26.3-0.7 28.0-0.1 14MAR2018 25.8-0.7 26.3-0.7 26.5-0.7 28.1-0.1 21MAR2018 25.2-1.2 26.5-0.7 26.5-0.8 28.2 0.0 28MAR2018 25.5-0.6 26.7-0.6 26.7-0.7 28.2-0.1 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0 18APR2018 24.1-1.2 27.2-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.6 0.1 25APR2018 24.3-0.7 27.1-0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.4 02MAY2018 24.2-0.6 26.9-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.9 0.2 09MAY2018 23.9-0.6 27.0-0.2 27.7-0.1 29.0 0.3

Ended up going with a fairly cool Summer for the US overall, though June will be fairly warm. Final Summer analogs: 1963, 1968, 1968, 1972, 1972, 1994, 2006, 2009, 2009, 2014. I was surprised at how similar 1968 and 1972 look to what the Canadian is showing for JJA ocean temperature anomalies. Down here, there seem to be two windows for rain in June: June 10-13, and June 22-28, which is interesting since the latter period is usually the hottest week of the year, often over 100F on multiple days.

I went with a blend of 1963, 1968, 1968, 1972, 1972, 1994, 2006, 2009, 2009, 2014 for my Summer Outlook. Its not perfect, but some similarities in both where we've been (winter/spring) and where the Canadian has JJA SSTAs globally. Its a fairly cool Summer nationally The SOI is around -4 for May to date, and the last 30 days. There is often an SOI reaction to developing El Nino conditions before SSTAs show up as El Nino (see 2014 most recently).

Since 1931-32, this past Nov-Apr (0.72") was third driest in Albuquerque. Here is a look at the years w/in 0.3" of the observed dryness this past Nov-Apr. 2005-06: 0.41" in Nov-Apr --> 1.14" Jun 2006 1995-96: 0.58" in Nov-Apr --> 2.86" June 1996 1966-67: 0.80" in Nov-Apr --> 1.71" June 1967 2012-13: 0.83" in Nov-Apr --> 0.02" June 2013 1954-55: 0.87" in Nov-Apr --> 0.33" June 1955 1946-47: 0.88" in Nov-Apr --> 0.23" June 1947 1932-33: 0.94" in Nov-Apr --> 3.81" June 1933 (one of our top-ever rain months) Fair number of these years have hot/cold east/west or vice versa orientations in winter and followed major Gulf Coast hurricane seasons interestingly enough. Mean is 1.44". We'll see!

This is kind of sort of the look of this year in La Nina to El Nino transition years. The cold tongue off Korea is still there, but less cold.

CFS has been trying to hint at a wet June for a little while now, which is what my analogs have been showing down here for a while. Early onset monsoon, then ends early.

Feb-Apr global SSTs kind of look like a blend of Feb-Apr 1968, 2006, 2014, 2015. Will be interesting to see if that holds up going into Summer. 1968 & 2014 took a while to develop into El Ninos. You have a warm Pacific, similar Atlantic, similar Indian, years after warm/dry Western winters. Not great for solar, so maybe I could blend in 1934 and 1996 too.

Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0 18APR2018 24.1-1.2 27.2-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.6 0.1 25APR2018 24.3-0.7 27.1-0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.4 02MAY2018 24.2-0.6 26.9-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.9 0.2 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

My Spring forecast is looking pretty good for my area, fairy normal March, then very hot/dry Apr-May. We may have multiple days in the low 90s through Wednesday here - which is pretty early (5/3/1947 is earliest 90F reading on record here). May is a bizarre month here anyway, its very nice when its colder than normal, but basically Summer if its hotter than normal since the average May high is 80F. We had near record cold in May 2015, and May 2014-2017 were already fairly cold here.

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 2013 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 2014 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2016 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -1.0 2018 -0.9 -0.8 -0.6 April was -0.46C against the 30-year base period. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Nice and cool today but I suspect we'll hit 90F here much earlier than last year. Historically super dry Nov-Apr periods in the SW are followed by major rains in June, and the Canadian has that kind of look for June, but we've had four ~cold Mays in a row here, its due to flip.

The Canadian has a weak El Nino forming mid-summer.

Its probably soft hail or graupel. The Canadian has a super torch for May nationally, trended much warmer from its last update.

The data I've seen implies that above a certain elevation level snow doesn't really change that much until you get into stronger ENSO conditions in the north of NM. For valleys and southern areas, even the mountains in the Center/South, La Nina is pretty dry, the precip just evaporates before hitting the ground. Red River has weather data almost every day from 1906-2014, 8600 feet up, and the overall effect of ENSO on Jul-Jun snow was around 10 inches/year. With ENSO, out here it works best when incorporating solar activity. March is unbelievable here with sufficiently high solar activity in El Nino years, but not so much in other El Ninos. That said, low solar+El Nino+El Nino after La Nina is the best combo for a severe winter here. The NW is similar, just replace El Nino with La Nina. Look at amazing 2016-17 or the other La Ninas are in the NW after big El Ninos. We had 22 inches of snow here from 3/22-4/8 in 1973, in an El Nino (high solar) after a La Nina. Neutral with low solar is pretty crazy down here, usually incredible cold shots for the time of year. March 29 is actually the second most common day to get a big snow event in Albuquerque based on 1931-2017, which always amuses me given the average high is 65F or something by then.

Remember the crazy late April and mid-May storms last year?

Last year (warm-Neutral + low solar) was amazing around here - Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07MAR2018 26.0-0.4 26.0-0.9 26.3-0.7 28.0-0.1 14MAR2018 25.8-0.7 26.3-0.7 26.5-0.7 28.1-0.1 21MAR2018 25.2-1.2 26.5-0.7 26.5-0.8 28.2 0.0 28MAR2018 25.5-0.6 26.7-0.6 26.7-0.7 28.2-0.1 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0 18APR2018 24.1-1.2 27.2-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.6 0.1 25APR2018 24.3-0.7 27.1-0.2 27.8 0.0 29.0 0.4

Pending this next little system, I believe we've had only 2 days here (Albuquerque) with over 0.10" precipitation since Oct 1. Very rare here, we're not Yuma, tied with three other years for fewest >0.1" days since 1892.

My view has always been that surface conditions (weather) lags by about 6-weeks from the ocean changes. So I'd say we transition to Neutral through June, and then we either stay Neutral or transition to El Nino. The Nina is dead on the weeklies now. I just started a new job, so I can't post the weeklies early in the morning like I was before, if someone else wants to do it. Nino1+2 Nino3 Nino34 Nino4 Week SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA SST SSTA 07MAR2018 26.0-0.4 26.0-0.9 26.3-0.7 28.0-0.1 14MAR2018 25.8-0.7 26.3-0.7 26.5-0.7 28.1-0.1 21MAR2018 25.2-1.2 26.5-0.7 26.5-0.8 28.2 0.0 28MAR2018 25.5-0.6 26.7-0.6 26.7-0.7 28.2-0.1 04APR2018 24.7-1.1 27.1-0.3 27.1-0.5 28.3-0.1 11APR2018 24.3-1.3 27.2-0.3 27.3-0.4 28.5 0.0 18APR2018 24.1-1.2 27.2-0.3 27.6-0.2 28.6 0.1 Nino 1.2 is pretty impressive for April so far, if it beats 2013, coldest since the mid-1990s. Favors a cold Washington state, and also dryness in Arizona for May pretty strongly.

I tried to convince you in February, that SOI drop to -7.7 should never happen in a healthy La Nina. It wasn't necessarily an indicator of an El Nino yet, but you did have a similar massive drop in March 1997 when the system began transitioning away from the near-Nina conditions to the big El Nino. I have certain organic indicators for ENSO, since the SW is most sensitive to it, and they were all indicating fairly rapid collapse in Feb/Mar. I do wonder when the next East-based El Nino will come - its been ages now.

We were 40F or so on Friday afternoon, I'd call it a Blue Norther level cold front. Wind was fierce and unrelenting. Midnight high of 54F though.