so_whats_happening

Yes thank you Roger it is appreciated. I hope to be more attentive with forecasts and not to be too conservative with anomalies this year. Hope you all have a great 2024!

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +1.4 +1.6 +1.7 -1.3 -.8 -1 -1.2 -1.8 -1.2

Was going to wait until tomorrow but I have a busy schedule the next few days, it shouldn't change too much at the end but we seem to be having a buoy issue again. That warmth near the dateline is just not going away.

Hard to know can't rely on one over another just going to have to wait and see. CRW is too erratic for my liking.

The weekly would be from the 20th-27th should average around 2 again. Dec 21: 2.04 Dec 22: 1.97 Dec 23: 1.91 Dec 24: 1.95 Dec 25: 1.98 Dec 26: 1.99 Dec 27: 2.05 The first weekly into January should feature that 2.1.

An insanely weak wave 2 response. We need to see this by hr 240 not 384 like we have seen posted several times. You can see there was a chance but CWB activity on our side of the planet has been rather dismal. We have the SPV in a weakened state but still holding it's own.

Translate it and up at the top you will see the reliability of each by color coding.

Yea i dont see how this causes anymore warming to occur. Keeping it around the same temp sure but any strengthening doesnt seem likely at this point. This month looks to end fairly close to how november was. Especially if that thermocline breaks in 1+2. We may see a rather quick cooling in the eastern portions and slow decline in western 3.4 and 4.

We seem to be having some buoy issues again on TAO so it gives a funky look to everything for the last 3 days. Minor DWKW with this last bout of weak wind burst. The extended wind forecast shows a very Nina like look over the Pacific.

Such a large difference in 1+2 readings from the several sources: CDAS or Tropical Tidbits: ~+.6 CRW: ~+1 OISST: ~+1.6 The cooling of 1+2 has not reached region 3 yet but should continue as we move into January. Hovering around 2C for both 3.4 and 3 in most data sets, of course except CDAS data. Nino 4 sitting at about 1.5C. With not much in the pipeline showing up we probably sustain most of these for about another 3 weeks or so and of course depending on equatorial winds we may start the descent into a weakening Nino by mid January on through the rest of winter. Luckily it seems as though we won't fall off a cliff. If the OISST weekly comes in at 2C again we should end the month about 2C which should crest us about 1.9C tri monthly for NDJ, again barring no more cooling occurs. Really hope we can get a neutral year next year instead of hoping right back into Nina status, which would be rather impressive and the only time this has occurred (not quite in the same manner as this) was in the early 70's. Hope yall have a good holiday season, may post TAO update after Christmas then.

Not really and those are VP maps which show the lifting going quickly to 1.

Found this in my bookmarks from sometime ago. Good read. https://events.ecmwf.int/event/129/contributions/675/attachments/285/540/Stratospheric-WS-Domeisen.pdf

Im honestly unsure about this but looking at how things progressed with the early December warming I would presume at 10mb we would want it more over Eurasia versus Kamchatka/ North Pacific. I included 10mb and 50mb animations. Here was the 500mb during that time frame as well of course we don't get to see the moving parts unless we do a daily gif but you kinda get the gist.

TAO through the 19th every 2 days. Edit: Don't mind the hiccup around the 3rd from about the 2nd-4th there were a few buoys missing from the data.

By far one of the stronger signals I have seen thus far. Lets see if the models are a little too aggressive at first or if this is the right idea.

Btw SOI has been rather positive over the last 2 weeks. 30 day is now above -4 and 90 day is about -8. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

I mean... It is actually a fairly typical Wave 1 response on the SPV typically you have two location of ridging (AK/ Europe) and two locations of troughing in a split (Canada/ Russia Siberia region) with displacements you typically get a ridging pattern like we see near Alaska sometimes we get an erroneous one like last winter across Europe to northern Asia. Last year was well connected to the 500mb pattern.

Latest TAO and CPC subsurface look. TAO im back to doing every 2 days. Edit: I just noticed the bad data around the 1st to about the 4th on TAO. Looks like some buoys were down during that period giving it a funky look.

Since the MJO forecasts have weakened considerably we also have weakened the potential WWB event as we head to mid to late month. There is still a little something there but nothing to tip the bucket more as of now. We can definitely see the area around 1+2 may fall even further coming up here. Last I saw was around 1.3 on OISST will have to check with the update later on.

Yea sounds about right with how things are looking right now. Im not sure this will have much impact in December maybe the last week we may see a slight warming? Similar progression to the last one but definitely weaker.

Cool the only reason I asked was to see if the model was overthinking the weakening, which sounds about right given past warming events models go too quick with it. I personally would like to see a strong pass in Phase 5-6-7 to really hammer the SPV but I know it would be a very unwelcomed thing.

Last year was awfully close to that time frame for PNA, it collapsed toward the end of October. Good it is at least holding up a bit.

Potentially that time frame has been changing over the last few days. Couple days ago it showed a strong advance to 3.4 but has backed off. I get the feeling we may in fact have a stronger MJO wave through 6/7 than what is currently modeled but will have to wait probably another week to get a better grasp. Until then I expect the cold to not really filter into the east until the last week of December and that may be generous. BTW PDO updated yesterday down to -1.79 for November from -2.97 in September. Truly rare territory here even 72-73 warmed the PDO to near neutral for this time period. The only years that managed to be close to this low during an El Nino were 94-95 and 04-05 in the last ~70 years.

To get back on topic a bit here is the upcoming look at the WWB there is certainly something there.

Again I even gave you a little heart because I read through your discussion I see what you are trying to say. Until we get to the cooler phases which do not happen until the end of the month we will feel the effects of warmth from the warmer phases and even when that happens the dirty work is done and December should still average above outside of the far NE and probably PAC NW. I still do not know what you are trying to refute here from what I said. Phase 7 all amplitudes, including low ones, still offers a warm look in the east for December. Phase 8 has a more neutral tendency which could offer some cool SE look but would just bring averages instead of say +3 to a more +1 to +2 state. As we carry over to January Phase 8 and 1 show a much colder signal, stronger amplitude would favor a slightly warmer scenario but still cold.