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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    We went +ENSO in 79-80, for 3 years, then 90-91 for 7 years. 01-02 we kind of went +ENSO.
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    I was thinking January would be cooler, but it might be warmer with a ridge connecting to the -NAO.
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    I was thinking of this today, 48-57 had a lot of Neg -PNA at the same time in AMO cycle. It could be good, it seems we were coming out of La Nina to more +ENSO phase at that time.
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    I think the Hadley Cell's just a little north. You can get GOA low's/Aleutian Low's, but not moderate-deep +PNA's. I also wonder if this Winter will be +EPO.. I did a study that had Oct-Nov hurricanes int he Atlantic at 7,7,6,7,(+EPO) vs 2,3 opposite, and yet there have been 0 so far.
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    lol.. I was talking about how it's going to be 6th straight year of -PNA after Strong El Nino.. kind of presupposing future, I guess. It's a trend that started around 2000, that I really want to learn about.
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    WXUSAF loves to delete my posts.
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, the whole pattern is starting to look like a west-based -PNA. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes strong/centralized in the 20-25day range.
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    I wonder what cold ENSO neutralizing/warming, starting in late October looks like..
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    We are at the time of year where there is one more central subsurface push, but otherwise I'd say we are in the general pattern/trend of warming back to +ENSO, especially to April-May.
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, I wonder if that warm can break 180W. It seems to me that the La Nina is dead.
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    Oh, opps. https://ibb.co/n0Jbpm3 2/3 turned the page to long term +ENSO cycles the following (7th year).
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    6 year's after Strong El Nino's https://ibb.co/dJWxSdw
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    6 year's after Strong El Nino's https://ibb.co/dJWxSdw
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    I've seen this before, they are using '89 and '05 as QBO analogs, for some reason around this time they heavily weight QBO into December.. I wouldn't bet on cold.
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    Top 20 NAO analogs Aug11-Nov15, we are #1 or #2 https://ibb.co/GWVhDzH ^Dec-Mar This keeps popping up https://ibb.co/VCxt41t Since 1948, kind of a weak dataset. We will finish Aug11-Nov 15 2021 #1 or #2 strongest NAO on record(based on 500mb)/20 This was probably most -NAO(1960-61) https://ibb.co/M5TkT7v
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    Top 20 NAO analogs Aug11-Nov15, we are #1 or #2 https://ibb.co/GWVhDzH ^Dec-Mar This keeps popping up https://ibb.co/VCxt41t
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    January will be -NAO with highs in the 30s, 40s and 50s.. no chance of ice storm
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    Some slight +ENSO tendency here for next year https://ibb.co/1KtNpqg analogs https://ibb.co/CKsYbKL https://ibb.co/rxGGYpK
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    Again, the last few times we have done this -PNA/+EPO/potentialenergy-NAO thing, the Winter has had a general warming skew https://ibb.co/1KtNpqg https://ibb.co/1bb4hpr https://ibb.co/X4X4Fwj neg Analogs https://ibb.co/Y7wBZ8z https://ibb.co/CKsYbKL
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, we can get some strong-NAO with highs in the 50s and 60s.
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    The GOA Low gets stuck over the Ocean here http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    This is pretty cool https://ibb.co/gF4zx7k, It looks like we are evolving into a -PNA/+EPO pattern for late-November though.
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    ^Geez, that's really -PNA for the Winter https://ibb.co/DfnXmyD
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    DCA +2.0 NYC +2.0 BOS +1.8 ORD 0 ATL +2.0 IAH +1.0 DEN 0 PHX +0.5 SEA -1.5
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    In 1964 we had some good October warm going into a good Winter.
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