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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    Expect models to trend warmer in the LR for the next few days.
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    Expect models to trend warmer in the LR for the next few days.
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    Models going to be trending much more -PNA through the long range in the next few days. Maybe through November.
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    It also feels a lot like 2006. https://ibb.co/N7vkgTs https://ibb.co/4dYRk5q into -NAO, I think https://ibb.co/hZcHQ2x
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    We are also going to have the most -PNA on record for Sept-Oct since 1948, by a long shot. Next one is like 0.70/this. (I'm using 500mb). I am also going to bring this up... Deepening in the central Nina-subsurface, models will trend much more -PNA in the coming days. https://ibb.co/8gYRDsk. I expect us to be deep -PNA into Nov 5th.
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    We are also going to have the most -PNA on record for Sept-Oct since 1948, by a long shot. Next one is like 0.70/this. (I'm using 500mb). I am also going to bring this up... Deepening in the central Nina-subsurface, models will trend much more -PNA in the coming days. https://ibb.co/8gYRDsk
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    WPO runs into the NAO at +15-30 days. The correlation vs atmospheric momentum/random is 0.0. It comes from the PNA at -15-25 days. The atmospheric momentum vs random is like 0.05.
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    What is the WPO? What's it's derivative, the PDO? I didn't get any cutoff lows in Russian in my research. The rollforward/rollbackward +60 days didn't give any significant clues. (Maybe planetary clues?)
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    It certainly looks like -NAO/-AO, which we will have been in 45 days... other than that, much drier.
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    1988-9 is my favorite analog for legit La Nina.
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    I'm feeling shades of 2018.. we are going to hit 45days of -NAO right before it gets cold.
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    -NAO going to on to like 45 straight days. Unfortunately October NAO is like 60% correlated with Winter +NAO.
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    Page cut out ro something. My bad, after March '93 it was a loss of interest. 90-91, 91-92, 92-93 were all good.
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    I really liked 93-94, too. A lot of flurry storms. Same thing in 94-95, 92-93, 91-92.. 2-4" powdery clippers.
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    I even did a subsurface vs surface study, and found that when the surface was ENSO state vs the subsurface there was 0.0/1 correlation to pattern, in some cases opposite.
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    95-96 was a La Nina (not in the subsurface)
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    We are going to have like 40 straight days of -NAO, going into Nov1st. 4th time this year. ( I would post images if I had more attachment space- I think 19/19 of last -NAO have all been associated with -PNA or +EPO.
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    -QBO, I think, is saying Nov15-Dec15 will be cold, but I don't think we will break -PNA. -PNA.
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    MT isn't real, I found a 0.00 correlation between Mountain Torque and Stratospheric warming.
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    https://ibb.co/mcMRfGW
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    We kind of had continental cold sitting, but..
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    2017-18, fake El Nino
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    2005-6 kept coming up as an analog, it was in like 5/5 studies I did... I don't think it's a good analog though
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    https://ibb.co/XYHPPx5 https://ibb.co/71HXPfk https://ibb.co/Xj37NpC https://ibb.co/59VjYMc https://ibb.co/LQmyjbY https://ibb.co/nC5P2cW https://ibb.co/q7hTJ9Q
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    https://ibb.co/Xj37NpC https://ibb.co/59VjYMc https://ibb.co/LQmyjbY https://ibb.co/nC5P2cW https://ibb.co/q7hTJ9Q Analogs to 30S S.A. cold extension.
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