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Daniel Boone

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  1. Daniel Boone
    Thank you, Thank you very much !
  2. Daniel Boone
    With a setup like that, I have saw that pan out. The coastal pulls down or allows in place cold air to hold, therefore the incoming system produces front end snow. Sometimes a thumping b4 changeover. In a much colder environment the setup has produced all snow for parts of the area.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, unless skies stay clear for a good while 2night, lower elevations are pretty much for sure out of luck. However, by the looks of it, timing regarding that is not good as clouds are rolling in in time to hold the days heating in.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Let's hope the Euro still has a bit of a warm bias and more of the area gets in on some accs.
  5. Daniel Boone
    Over the last 10 years, many places snowfall averages have decreased. However, one area that has gone against that trend is Oklahoma. There was a time when Tulsa and Oklahoma Cities Snowfall averages were quite a bit lower than ours. What has led to this "switch" ? Is it the warm Atlantic cycle, mostly +NAO, or other ?
  6. Daniel Boone
    Thought some of you all may find this interesting. This is from the University of Virginia's Climate office. Wise holds the States official Seasonal Snowfall Record. 124.2 inches in 1995-96. I lived in Pennington gap, Lee County then and recorded 52" . Virginia Extremes: Highest Sea-level Pressure 1051.2mb January 31, 1981 Washington National Lowest Sea-level Pressure 965.3mb March 15, 1993 Richmond Highest Wind Speed 134mph September 14, 1944 Cape Henry Highest Temperature 110F July 15, 1954 Balcony Falls1 Lowest Temperature -30F January 21, 1985 Mountain Lake Biological Station High 24-hour Precipitation 27.35 in August 20, 1969 Nelson County2 High Monthly Precipitation 24.98 in June, 1995 Glasgow3 High Annual Precipitation 81.78 in 1972 Montebello Least Annual Precipitation 12.52 in 1941 Moore's Creek Greatest 24-hour Snowfall 33.0 in March 6, 1962 Big Meadows High Single Storm Snowfall 48.0 in January 6-7, 1996 Big Meadows4 Greatest Monthly Snowfall 54.0 in February, 1899 Warrenton Greatest Seasonal Snowfall 124.2 in 1995-6 Wise5
  7. Daniel Boone
    Of course CPC bought the mild runs and ran with them in their 8-14 day.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Would be nice to have a home on High Knob in Wise County. Back in the early 2000s Dave Dierks Chief Meteorologist on WCYB said the average there was 110 inches a Season. He listed the Ski Resort areas in NC and their average was 90 to 100". Highknoblandform.com has alot of info. About the area.
  9. Daniel Boone
    The Models are picking up on the MJO signal in concert with the Niña forcing in the PAC. Screaming PAC Jet. It is possible, a ridge may try to poke up occasionally in the NE PAC due to the warm SSTS there and an AK Vortex retro to Aleutians. That would be great. Hopefully, La Niña will rapidly weaken and those NE PAC SST'S remain warm and blocking continues then, we'll be in business.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Excellent interpretation and explanation Carver!! Logically laid out reasoning.
  11. Daniel Boone
    They're definitely fewer and further between than pre early 1980s. There's different hypotheses/theories on why. I think Wes Junker and maybe Anthony Masiello and some others discussed this pretty in depth several years ago on Eastern WB. Can't remember what their ideas were but, was interesting.
  12. Daniel Boone
    I've witnessed several decent snowfalls here over the years with a crappy Pac but, pretty much always a strong -NAO. The 60'S come to mind as the -PDO La Niña Winters all had decent snowfalls. -NAO dominated those years.
  13. Daniel Boone
    If HLB can hold on while Niña rapidly weakens, we could really be in business, i.m.o... Of course, the GW bunch that have so much to gain from it, may pay to have models hacked. So, alot of folks would be caught of guard. Then we'd have fake Models or Forecasts, lol. All joking aside, wouldn't be too surprising actually, in light of all the proven fraudulence, lying and greed that's so prevalent nowadays. Sad, scary world.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Graupel here just b4 dark that dusted housetops, cars etc.. Went to Big Stone Gap 2day and passed vehicles coming from Norton/Wise area that looked to of had about an inch on them.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Thanks for the uplifting comments buddy. That warm pool you mentioned may help pump a ridge there as you mentioned from time to time and mitigate that zonal depiction. That could work for us and maybe, I won't eat those words, lol.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Will add, looking at the last evolution of the esp run. It does go zonal even with the blocking. That AK Vort is suppressing the Niña forced Ridge but instead of it shifting east or west, it just flattens and thereby causes a screaming Pac Jet. Not good. So. I may eat my above words. Would be nice if that AK Vort would continue west and set-up along the Aleutians.
  17. Daniel Boone
    I'll say one thing, you can bet the monthlies will bust big time if that high latitude depiction is realized throughout the Winter at any sustainability. Those Monthly runs put alot of weight in ENSO .
  18. Daniel Boone
    Think that's the biggest concern for the lower elevations. The longer the clear skies 2night the better. Problem is, it's already beginning to cloud up. Worst case scenario; cloud up during afternoon as that seals in the daytime heat build up , then remain cloudy up to precip onset. Don't you just hate that if you're a snow lover.?!
  19. Daniel Boone
    It was wet here in Lee County up until last Month. It was way below average here. Only 1.4 inches of rain ! Just.43" yesterday. The last 3 systems have produced much less than forecasted. Snowfall fro the other day was more than models projected for the County.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Right along you John and my thoughts yesterday of the "how" to get a favorable pattern even with the AK Vort.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Exactly the option we discussed that would get it done John. More than likely will be wavering back and forth between the two alot. Saw where CPC Totally bought yesterday's solutions. Not surprising though, as percentage odds and recent climate persistence trends would dictate that from them.
  22. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, for sure John. Still some hope for last nights depiction to be possible, with enough NA blocking and that NE PAC warm pool as Carver aluded to. But, with the Nina, in particular it's strength, this new depiction has greater odds of happening i.m.o, unfortunately . Maybe, it'll be more back and forth between the 2. If so, we can work with that.
  23. Daniel Boone
    My thoughts are exactly with Carvers. That NE PAC warm pool along with HLB are fighting any Niña takeover . IF Eps later depiction is right, it appears HLB may gradually force that vortex in the Yukon south. Probably down into south central Canada then who knows from there. Down into US or into eastern Canada.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Gotcha ! Thanks for the clarification. I expect back and forth as well. MJO does rule the roost many,( if not most, times ) tbh.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Same things were brought up back in '95-96 Fred as well as 2010-11 and a couple Factors warred against the full La Niña pattern takeover . Oh yes, it did try especially in 95-96 as short lived bouts of mild would come east only to be shunted by strong blocking in the NAO domain and other areas as Carver aluded to. Of course, Niña was weak that season so, odds are less favorable for that yo happen now and more in favor of more niña influence. However, what about 2010-11 ? Strong Niña but, remained cold overall in the East. Blocking was one reason. What was the others ?
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