Powderboy413

I am not worried about this winter at all. Regardless of what the models indicate right now and for the next few months I feel confident this winter will feature colder temps with more snowfall compared to the last 2 years, at least in my hood. knowing in the back of my mind that this could be the year that the -nao comes back with vengeance and completely takes over the winter I won't go that far yet though lol

JAMSTEC if anyone hasn't seen the September update:

One thing I do like is that it's look like we will at least have a cold source to tap into if we need it

I've been hearing a lot about how people are only using analogs that are 2nd year Niñas only. My question is, if you have a weak oni influence on the atmosphere is it necessary to only use 2nd year Nina analogs. I understand how a strong Nino could lag atmospheric conditions into the next year but if it's a weak one, does it really matter for the following year?

out of the 11 latest oni years you used, 5/11 were above average snowfall for the Albany area. The average of those 11 years was 57.5 inches, which is slightly below the average annual snowfall of 60.3 inches for Albany.

Looks like September 10th and 11th could be a potential minimum for sea ice. According to nsidc, 4.649 million km2 was reported for both dates.

we block

I have a feeling winter is going to start a lot earlier than past years. Weak La Niña and a -qbo give me this feeling. I am pretty confident that this winter has front loaded written all over it. Not to sure about mid feb on though.

My early thoughts on this winter is probably somewhat to simple for you guys. I see a continuation of this cool and wet theme we have been witnessing for the past few months. It might just be me but I feel like since that march blizzard we had, the overall theme since then was cool and wet.

I would agree with your upcoming winter research, good work

dam nice cane lol

well the qbo is officially negative now. Currently reads at a -3.18. That's a good thing for next winter but, does anyone know if its a bad thing if it's super negative? Such as a -20 or more?

June JAMESTEC looking mighty fine I have to say, not to mention precip was above normal for he northeast too. I know only summer officially starts in a few days, but I envision a huge winter incoming boys

Agreed 100%