This would be 4th system in 8 years that goes up the Florida coast and threatens some of the core coming ashore, (Dorian, Matthew, Isaias). Just funny because I don't recall that in 2000s/90s, could be wrong though
More ensembles on 18z going towards peninsula + showing the stall along with more W Florida landfalls. Just off the pure eye. The mean itself may be deviated by the members which go in west of PC, which probably won't happen.
Curious to see how NHC treats new data. 990 MB is a large drop with a 55 knot SFMR recorded. Wonder if they'll put out an update statement or wait until 8 PM.
Surge will be bad, but lets not under estimate the potential for a Cat 2-3 eyewall to be going through Tampa. They have great building codes but that would cause significant damage regardless.