The Iceman

With how south the Euro is currently, I actually don't mind where we sit on the GFS. If it trends just 50-75 miles south towards the euro, this area gets absolutely pummeled. I'd still take this as is for sure though even with the mixing issues.

Coastal actually comes together.. but pretty messy transfer. 95 and immidiate suburbs go from thump to mix to rain back over to snow. Actually a pretty crazy long duration storm. Starts a little after 12z Sunday and by 06z Tuesday snow is finally beginning to taper off. Honestly not that bad of a run for us... Nothing 'historic' but that still looks like a fun storm. Overall I give that a "not bad". A 50-75 mile shift towards the euro and many of us are sitting pretty. As Ralph says, we take.

This is completely anecdotal, but I find the icon to actually be a decent model when it comes to storm track and intensity but it doesn't pick up well on CAD at all and frequently scorches the boundary layer way too early or shows obvious mixing(sleet/frz) as plain rain. Again just something I've noticed model watching since it's been released but I don't have any data to back it up.

Icon is a pretty good result but it doesn't stall the storm out for days... Thump to mix to dry slot verbatim. Winter storm warning level event. 4-8" for all. I would definitely take.

It's a great model when it shows snow. Piece of shit otherwise though...

Yep big jump on the eps last night. Im way more worried about rain/mixing then I am suppression. Regardless things look great for some snow at least. Details tbd.

Take a blend of the euro and gfs and we are in the jackpot. I don't think it shakes out like that, but I like where we stand at the moment. Not sold on the HECS yet but biggest snow of the season could certainly be in the cards.

Definitely way icier than I expected back home in Hopewell. Thin layer of sleet coating the ground that's frozen solid with the freezing drizzle. Untreated surfaces also getting a bit slick. We only got slightly above freezing, high of 32.8 according to my station. Now down to 29.6F. I bet it's going to be a slick night with a bunch of black ice.

They've moved on to celebrating on the mid field logo down in the mid atlantic thread... Show some class!

Hell of a mean on the eps... Unbelievable signal at that range...however notice there is clearly a cluster that favors SNE.

Don't post this in the mid atlantic thread ...they've spiked the football and are doing a full team celebration in the end zone already

Only 10 more runs of the euro until verification. What can go wrong!

This entire forum needs this storm. All out blizzard from southern virginia up through maine. Textbook east coast noreaster wow.

Holy shit, euro crawls up the coast slamming us in hours 168 and 174. Edit: Still ripping at 180 here. Edit 2: finally tapering off at hour 186. .. Can't wait to see the clown maps..

Looks like we get fringed on this run through 162... coastal is definitely a bit further south. Mid atlantic is in the bullseye... What could go wrong for them 6 days out I was negative at first but honestly I like where we stand at 12z. A compromise between the euro and gfs is a great solution for us. We don't want to be in the jackpot area right now.

Euro is going to be a hit incoming. Basically identical to 00z through 126. Edit: through 138 I'd say it still looks identical maybe a tad further south with the coastal. Walloping incoming?

I'm 20 years into this hobby and still learning! If you ever have questions about any posts here, definitely feel free to ask. I'll be glad to explain the best I can. It's always good to see new "weenies" in the making

I would hold off on calling the ukie a miss...haven't seen precip panels but through 144 that's a decent low track. Edit: verbatim it's a "miss" but I think the coastal is gearing up to rock us if there was a 150 panel. I think that's a decent run since it's at the end of it's range.

That's actually a pretty big signal imo. the navgem is a bad model but it's usually super progressive, the fact it's showing a wound up coastal when others are flat and suppressed is a good sign. What page is that in the weenie handbook @Ralph Wiggum?

Gefs seem unenthused... Only like 2 or 3 big hitters in there. The rest seem to be thump to rain..

Here's the 12z icon weenie map special for furrawn if only this came true...

Welcome to the board! Here are the 2 free sites I use to model watch. I also have a subscription though for the euro and eps. Tropical tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021012612&fh=162 Pivotal weather: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021012612&fh=6&r=conus&dpdt=&mc= Feel free to ask questions whenever! I know I'm a bit down on these threats but I still enjoy tracking them

Not north but a sheared out mess that comes together just in time for sne. little snow for all around here and the mid atlantic. Add it to the list of possibilities on how we fail with this one. Honestly the cmc is pretty believable based on the pattern this month.

Plain rain now in trenton and 34f. Nice thump. Still hanging on at 31.6 back at home.. guess it's sleet/freezing rain up there.

Gfs and it's ensembles are consistent with the snow to rain scenario. That's my guess on what will end up happening with the storm coming in from Ohio and the secondary hugging the coast. Still has the potential for a nice thump unless it shears out over us like today... Still way too early to know what that thump will look like but I agree at least we should see some snow... Edit: Para gfs with the same idea as the gfs.