The Iceman

Cmc ensemble mean is similar to the gefs.. christ if we completely whiff after both ensemble suites are showing 6-12" means inside 5 days, I'm done with this hobby until I move to the green mountains or a lake effect region in a few years... x

Not going to lie the ukmet has me pretty nervous I really hope the euro doesn't join it. That has been the theme this winter in this time frame.. shear out the storm to the south. Sometimes the uk is a preview of where the euro is heading and I really hope that isn't the case. It would be an absolute nightmare scenario. As ji would say, this upcoming 12z euro run is the biggest run of our lives If the uk scenario ends up happening then they should literally take the computer the gfs runs on and throw it in the dumpster never to be ran again. That would be an unreal shift south in this time frame.

Gfs ensembles... I see 1 miss and tons of big hitters

Holy shit, that's even better than the GFS. Still absolutely ripping CCB at hour 120. and that's after 36 hours of snow...

15-18" all across SE PA with the 18-21" weenie stripe over paul's house. That sure is a pretty map...

Like this frame, call me a weenie, but under that heavy of precip, there's no way it's going to be plain rain up to the turnpike. GFS is definitely underplaying the CAD this far out. Maybe a mix but I bet the intensity keeps the area frozen save for shore areas..

Gfs doesn't just get in line, it stalls the storm right off the cape may coast. Don't believe other models are doing that. Verbatim philly up to the turnpike change over for a time but it may be over doing the low level warmth. I'd expect a change to pingers though for a time probably even up to red sky. Still great run!! Almost 48 hours straight of precip!

I hope the euro trends towards the gfs. Any more ticks north and this one is probably worse than the December storm here. Already very close with the mix line in my backyard. Verbatim the 00z euro is actually a lot like the December storm with the ccb ripping in central pa. We definitely want to see some ticks east if we don't want to get dry slotted. Today's a big day imo we ll have a much better idea whether this will be just an okay storm like December or something special.

They're shit models again and have always been shit!

18z Eps ... Some members a bit too tucked but overall very nice!

If I remember correctly, Jan 16 was like this, I don't think the models started printing out insane totals, like 20" plus, until we got inside 96 hours. I could be misremembering though.

Very true. PdII had like 6 hours of sleet if I remember correctly and I still ended up with around 20". We may have had a hour or two of pingers in Jan 16, I don't remember tbh

Nuked. Verbatim probably some mixing issues but I can deal with it and also not much room for error. Can't hug the coast too much closer or we see a lot of mixing and rain. The clown map sure is pretty though with that foot maximum over Ralph and I's houses.

That's a red flag! Navgem leads the way in these set ups. Throw up your buns!

Ukie is similar to last nights euro imo just a bit further N. strung out transfer so we don't really get a WAA thump and the coastal doesn't really get going until well offshore so it's just 24 hours of light snow lol not a great solution but shows the way we can fail as lvblizz explained above.

One thing is that the ukie is way slower than the other models. Precip doesn't get going here until 00z monday. Other models have us starting 18z Sunday at the latest.

maps? Only out to 60 on my site.

While that could be the case, I believe it's too early to know the dynamics in play. I think there very well could be a nice CCB when the coastal forms that the models just aren't picking up on yet...Not to mention warmer than slightly normal waters in the atlantic, I think the coastal has a good chance of amping up quicker than progged especially if it stalls..

Oh man the CMC is a textbook hit for these parts. Storm stalls just off the cape may coast and drifts ENE. No real precip type issues for anyone. Widespread 8-12". Add it to the scattershot of solutions but this is a great look. And I think it's a bit underdone on the precip...

Totally agree, I think we will likely mix up here, almost every big storm does at a point. It will be how much we mix that determines if this is one to remember or not. But I also like where we sit at the moment for a winter storm warning level event.

Live look in at the mid atlantic forum after the 12z gfs:

With how south the Euro is currently, I actually don't mind where we sit on the GFS. If it trends just 50-75 miles south towards the euro, this area gets absolutely pummeled. I'd still take this as is for sure though even with the mixing issues.

Coastal actually comes together.. but pretty messy transfer. 95 and immidiate suburbs go from thump to mix to rain back over to snow. Actually a pretty crazy long duration storm. Starts a little after 12z Sunday and by 06z Tuesday snow is finally beginning to taper off. Honestly not that bad of a run for us... Nothing 'historic' but that still looks like a fun storm. Overall I give that a "not bad". A 50-75 mile shift towards the euro and many of us are sitting pretty. As Ralph says, we take.

This is completely anecdotal, but I find the icon to actually be a decent model when it comes to storm track and intensity but it doesn't pick up well on CAD at all and frequently scorches the boundary layer way too early or shows obvious mixing(sleet/frz) as plain rain. Again just something I've noticed model watching since it's been released but I don't have any data to back it up.

Icon is a pretty good result but it doesn't stall the storm out for days... Thump to mix to dry slot verbatim. Winter storm warning level event. 4-8" for all. I would definitely take.