The Iceman

It's done this all season long but continue to hug it tightly

B-b-but the euro is the best model by far, how could it fold?

Looks like a lot of mixing on the pivotal clown map

Yup definitely further se with the low level cold air. More amped than 12z too so it might even be colder than that. Won't be surprised at all if we continue to trend colder up to the start time.

I'm unsure what to think in my area. My house runs a good degree or two colder than other areas in Mercer county due to the elevation. I'm right on the border of Huntington county which is under an ice storm warning for .25-.5" of ice. Should be interesting how long we stay below freezing here. I don't envy mt hollys job at all. Could still see it being a nothing burger of mostly heavy rain if precip holds off like the nam or a big ice event Monday night if precip rolls in early like the euro and HRRR. I think it will very much be a nowcasting event and the models won't have a great grasp of the low level cold.

He'll be here... He's one of the regulars around here still. Great dude

Of course the 18z nam ticks warmer. Still a decent .25" icing in the lehigh valley but not much of note down towards 95 and burbs.

Man the meso s are really cold for Monday night into Tuesday. Would be a significant ice storm even down to 95. This one is the most significant but all the mesos drop between .25"-.5"+ all the way to 95. HRRR also is much more significant than the globals with close to .25" frz down to 95. Lehigh valley should prepare for a major ice event.

I think he's including the snow cover from December. He probably had 10 or so days with snow cover then. So new snow cover started jan 30th to present to give the 25 days... At least that's what I think

Euro is 4-8" of snow to ice. All frozen for most. We are about to see if it's back to being king this week. Edit: ukmet is even better than the euro. 6"+ for most.

Cmc is close to all frozen as well. Gfs shifted pretty significantly east as well with the low. Good trends today for an all frozen event Thursday. Tuesday still looks like a washout for most except those in the lehigh valley.

Euro/HRRR is the only guidance that ticked colder. Interesting. Euro still changes most over to rain but much more ice than the other models.

Stuck in mt laurel tonight. Anything unsalted is a sheet of ice including side streets. Worst icing I've witnessed in awhile especially down here. Main roads are salted but you can hear people sliding all over the neighborhood.

Thursday is trending towards more frozen imo. Should be a nice thump at the very least but it feels like one of those 3-6" slop storms that ends as light rain. Tuesday is dead for almost everyone at this point, only thing to watch there is if the precip keeps increasing. New nam paints a stripe of 1-1.5" qpf through se pa that is mostly liquid. Rgem is juiced up too. Should be a mess as that all falls in 12 hours. Going to run right off...

Drove from Hopewell > Levittown > Mt Laurel and it went from nothing/wet in Hopewell, to a glaze in levittown, to actually like .1" of icing down on mt Laurel. It's pretty slick down here.

I'm posting my observations. How can observations have a clue or no clue? It's been light freezing rain all afternoon and there is zero accretion on any surfaces. Sorry that hurts your feelings. Some people get worked up over no reason... Par the course for that user.

Slightly higher rates and we would have puddles forming it has been optimal light freezing rain conditions this afternoon and it hasn't done anything.

It's been a steady mist the last 2 hours, streets, car, deck, trees all wet. No accretion.

No it isn't.

Temp is down to 28 but still no ice accretion on any surfaces. Should serve as a caution for those expecting big ice this week with marginal temps around freezing...

Who had a rougher 2020-2021 season, the Euro or Carson Wentz?

Naefs still indicating a minor possibly moderate flood threat this week for the areas that won't stay frozen especially in the smaller tributaries. https://www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs?Lat=40&Lon=-77&Zoom=7 And that doesn't include all of the storm drains that are blocked and frozen around here, there's going to be a lot of water with nowhere to go. Lehigh valley and other elevated areas will have to watch for ice but I just still do not seeing it be that big of a deal from central bucks/montco s and e but hey maybe the euro will finally score a coup after being hot garbage all year.

I'm confused, pretty much everyone here said it would be this afternoon/evening...

Light freezing rain/sleet has started in lower bucks. 29F in the car.

Won't be until this afternoon evening. Very light amounts of whatever falls but it should be frozen. Maybe some slick spots on untreated surfaces but nothing significant at all.