gymengineer

This article explains the almost unimaginable changes to our collective experience contained in each of the major “how to open back up” plans: https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemployment?utm_campaign=ezraklein&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

The thing about the IHME model that is striking to me is how quickly it projects the backside of the curve of daily deaths to plunge towards zero. Today was modeled to be in the 420’s for both Italy and Spain. Granted, daily death counts still are reflecting a catching-up, but Italy’s was 542 today while Spain spiked again up to 757. The model is showing both countries dropping to under 100 daily deaths in 11 to 13 days. This backside of the curve for each country/region is really going to be significant in determining the final death toll. If it’s not as sharp as in the IHME model, that model’s projection will be too low.

So is anyone else seeing Ji’s twitter presence showing up in curated streams being the absolutely worst version of himself? Like to the point of meriting no response but causing the person to waste time answering because of his trolling ability? But this time about COVID-19’s seriousness.

I am so sorry. Praying for you and your family, and especially for the two members who are still in the hospital. I hope that in being strong for your family, you will find chunks of time, private they may be, to grieve and mourn and memorialize. You are strong and brave to be thinking about your family's needs. I wish all of your family comfort and closeness even with physical separation.

https://governor.maryland.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/OLC-Interpretive-Guidance-COVID19-07.pdf See the second paragraph. Restaurants can continue to do carry-out/pickup. Non-essential businesses can no longer continue pickups.

For physics teachers, this is a great opportunity to apply physics to get your circle of influence to understand what’s going on. d vs t graph- derivative is v vs t. A constant v vs t means a linear d vs t graph. A constant non-zero a vs t graph means a linear v vs t and a curved d vs t graph. Once we have to introduce the concept of “jerk,” which will show as a changing a vs t graph, the ripples through the v vs t and d vs t graphs can be complicated to understand. US deaths represented by graph format is currently into “jerk” territory in terms of physics terms.

Here’s a COVID-19 tracking site that’s been pretty good in terms of matching the MD/DC/VA numbers, and other state numbers: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en The most startling graphic is the one showing the continued exponential growth in deaths, because that figure is less sensitive to testing capacity (the most sick have had the greatest access to tests, other than VIPs apparently). When the dark blue death-per-day line itself starts showing non-linear growth like the last few days, that’s the sign that things are going not well at all.

Did you ever calculate what 3% or 1% or even 0.5% of 58 million was before posting?

My partner was able to go liquor shopping on Friday during the day while I was at the office for the last day until further notice. He picked up 7 liters of potato vodka, 3.5 liters of Tanqueray gin, 1.75 liters of Jameson whiskey, and restocked our Cointreau. That should tide us over for 3 weeks. We accidentally ordered 144 rolls of toilet paper by mail late last year so we are still all set in that department.

Well the big one that is legendary in that regard is 59/60. Snow season basically started with a storm on 2/13/60 and then three significant events in March For BWI: 8.2" 2/13-14/60; 0.5" 2/21/60; 2.0" 2/25/60; 10.5" 3/2-4/60; 5.9" 3/9-10/60; 5.1" 3/16/60. There were 12 snow cover days that March.

Once you add those totals in, you actually have 6 seasons above average, not 3.

It's not the 1960's, but having lived through the 1980's, 1990's, and 2000's and reviewed the stats on the 1970's, I would always prefer the past 10 snow seasons. Yes, it includes 09/10 to start. Then 13/14, 14/15, 15/16 were three very different ways to get to above average. The 2016 blizzard was the best single storm in my lifetime at my location. The 70's through the 00's had plenty of crap seasons for the three airports too, so nothing about 16/17 and 17/18 really phased me. If you can get through 75/76 or 80/81 or 88/89 or the 96/97-97/98 combo or 01/02 or 07/08 or multiple other horrid seasons without dying, then 16/17 or 17/18 are just part of the deal of being in this area. Probably the dividing line for looking at the past 10 seasons is last season. Of course the immediate DC area got in on the 10-12" storm, which the morning after still had the feel of "This was a big one."

I’ve always taken the long game as a DC area lifer and I’ve described both good and bleak stretches of DC area snow history. Newspapers did their Decade review heading into 2020 with the CWG opting to fold the 2010 part of 2009-2010 into their decade review So this is the simplest start of the review of the past 10 winters. I can break it down much more if people have questions. The past 10 snow seasons’ average: IAD: 27.2” (above average) DCA: 17.2” (above average) BWI: 24.1” (above average) Number of the past 10 snow seasons that were above average: IAD: 5 DCA: 5 BWI: 4 In other words, just wait and you’ll have a good snow year in our current snow regime.... in spite of any reactionary meltdown every week.

Thanks. Makes sense.

Folks, who is RevWarReenactor? A known troll or a new troll?

Pouring snowflakes here! Magical outside right now in North Bethesda.

I’m following a curated meteorologist twitter list for Dorian. I’ve never seen meteorologists rage tweeting like right now.

0Z models do not show that so far. Don’t look at the snow maps— just look at precip total maps through 18Z tomorrow. The aim of the heaviest precip is not where you described.

It can’t be a bad sign heading into an even better pattern that the two serviceable windows this season have so efficiently given our subforum two 10”+ snowstorms. Richmond wasn’t locked in for their 11” heading into the event either. These are some juiced up storms.

Just came across this from Typhoon Jebi. The Hong Kong videos earlier this season got a lot of attention, but this stuff out of the Osaka area is pretty dramatic too. Kansai International Airport gusted to 130 mph and even the downtown business district of Osaka had a 106 mph gust.

Great to see. I've really appreciated your posts, particularly reminding the subforum that the past two winters weren't a 'disaster' for many parts of the lower Mid-Atlantic.

Drunk? lower case writing, weird non-factual phrasings, etc.

As its just south of Tokyo 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 34.1N 138.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 445 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 410 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 340 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 395 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

For me, it would be a radar loop of Carol making landfall. Perhaps the most purely tropical hit of the famous New England storms?

That Sampit River boat reading of 120 mph (~60 ft elevation) would again support a higher maximum gust estimate in the RMW zone. Since I support the NHC's assigned landfall intensity, the other data indicating Category 4 is what made his wind map based on damage to trees and structures stand out as an outlier. Hmm, to add some more confusion, this other map does not match the original one I imbedded. It's somehow tied to Fujita as well, but has a zone of 145 mph+ gusts: