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Everything posted by Phelps
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If the models show a good look but you just assume everything will be bad 1.)you are most likely right BUT 2.) why are you here? We all commiserate when things don't work out for us (and they haven't been working out) but if "winter is over" then this forum is of no use to you.
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2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Phelps replied to The Alchemist's topic in Southeastern States
Definitely think you'll see more than a couple inches. Enjoy! I'll be sitting this one out in Charlotte. -
2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Phelps replied to The Alchemist's topic in Southeastern States
Had to come back up to Beech to experience this. It's deep. I am not sure if it is more than December 18 but it doesn't really matter. When you get this much snow the difference between 15 or 18 or 20 isn't the point. Days like today are why we do it. -
2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Phelps replied to The Alchemist's topic in Southeastern States
I am having intense FOMO based on what I am seeing on my cameras on Beech. Looks to be snowing very hard. -
2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Phelps replied to The Alchemist's topic in Southeastern States
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2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Phelps replied to The Alchemist's topic in Southeastern States
It took me approximately 6 hours to get from my house on Beech to Tyncastle. Relentlessly snowing and I think everything in the area was so backed up they couldn't get the salt trucks out to us. I think everything was fine until the skiers all left and the intensity of the snow picked up. Would have turned around and gone back but that didn't feel like an option either. I re-learned the lesson of when not to be on the roads up there. -
2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Phelps replied to The Alchemist's topic in Southeastern States
It is, and has been, absolutely hammering snow on beech mountain. Big sticky flakes. This report is being brought to you live from the Beech Mountain Parkway. Where I have been sitting for 2+ hours. -
2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Phelps replied to The Alchemist's topic in Southeastern States
33 here where I am on Beech. Didn't think temps would be an issue after being in the deep freeze all weekend. Curious how this plays out. We're right on the edge of temps and precip shield but still think we should do ok. -
2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Phelps replied to The Alchemist's topic in Southeastern States
Obviously not focusing on one single model run but if we could get something like the 12z GFS that would make for a nice little wintery stretch heading into new years for the high elevations. (in stark contrast to the last few years) -
2023-2024 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Phelps replied to The Alchemist's topic in Southeastern States
Probably the same model that was spitting out 5-7 for earlier this week lol -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Phelps replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Dropped to 29.8 at 4am. Currently 34.6. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Phelps replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
31.2 here on Beech. Not sure the models are going to tell me much more at this point. It will snow when the ULL moves through tomorrow but I have no idea how much. But preparing myself for the changeover to take longer than I want it to. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Phelps replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Wow, GSP with 8-12 across most of Avery County. Not sure I saw that coming overnight. @MotoWeathermanis it going to be raining or snowing when we wake up Sunday morning on Beech? -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Phelps replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Lol. Dusting was absolutely the wrong way to describe that. But much less than 3.5. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Phelps replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
As is often the case 500-1000’ on beech makes a big difference. Just a dusting so far at my place but coming down pretty good. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Phelps replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
GSP downplaying the next one. The clown maps may be incorrectly showing some of the rain as snow before the NWF starts up. Profiles will quickly fall below freezing through the column and any lingering low-level moisture will eek out some light snow showers in the favored upslope zones along the NC-TN border and the spine of the Appalachians. Only light, sub-advisory accumulations are currently expected, even at the higher elevations of the northern mountains. Flurries may continue well into the day Thursday...not ending entirely until early afternoon, as CAA begins to falter and residual valley moisture is finally exhausted. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Phelps replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
It's been a great snowy day on Beech but there has been a lul in the action for a while. Not sure we'll post a big number but doesn't mean it wasn't awesome. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Phelps replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
I was going to leave for Beech tomorrow but I’m biting the bullet and heading up this evening (through the squall line lol). Road conditions aren’t my primary concern as much as Friday evening tourist traffic. 4wd and chains can’t help when there’s a fort mill minivan pile up on food lion hill. I have a feeling it could get pretty gnarly. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Phelps replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Man would I ever take the GFS to the bank. No travel issues Friday night. Wake up Saturday morning and it’s snowing and doesn’t stop until it’s time to head out Monday. (Obviously would love a more widespread storm for the forum too) -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Phelps replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
This may or may not work out but not sure I'd hit the panic button a week out. But agree that getting skunked from Christmas to mid-jan is pretty brutal. And February has been crappy for the last several years but maybe this year is better. Separately, Brad seems surprisingly bullish here for the weekend. Yeah there could be some flakes flying and they were able to refresh the slopes with some man-made snow but not seeing much in the way of actual snow. -
2022-2023 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Phelps replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Was wondering if we’d get a little moisture in the mix with the cold -
I don't know anything about TS tracking but the GFS has this thing pulling out of Charlotte by daybreak Saturday and the NAM even earlier. Euro lingers a bit. No idea if I should trust it but the trends sound like they are for less of an impact for this area. Clemson/NC State is not going to be the mess we initially thought it was going to be.
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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Phelps replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Hit 60 today. Now it’s snowing. -
2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Phelps replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
A healthy inch or so where I am on the mountain. Let's see what the NWF can do. The temperature drop was impressive. -
2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Phelps replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Wondering if we can squeeze out an inch or 2 tomorrow up top. Seemed to be looking promising yesterday but the hi res are not looking so hot this morning. Probably just a wait and see given how borderline the temps are.