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Phelps

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Everything posted by Phelps

  1. Phelps
    I left Beech yesterday and all that snow from a week ago seemed to be showing no signs of going anywhere anytime soon. Still a really good scene up there.
  2. Phelps
    Charlotte always seems too far east to get snow, except situations like this when it's too far west.
  3. Phelps
    Half whining half serious question... I understand it is difficult (perhaps impossible) to predict sensible weather 7+ days out. It doesn't surprise me at all that models spit out a variety of solutions and many are wrong. But it just seems to me like something has to be broken if your model routinely spits out a scenario that happens on a few times a century. I guess it doesn't matter because the purpose of these tools is not to predict sensible weather at this range.
  4. Phelps
    Ray mentioned this in his winter forecast in regards to his assessment of 202/21: "The biggest “miss” was at higher elevations along the western escarpment where NW flow snow were few. We have not seen a good NW flow snow in a few years.
  5. Phelps
    Living in Charlotte I am so scarred by WAA and mixing that I can't help but find the warmest looking model and assume it might be even warmer than that. We've just had our hopes crushed too many times in the last 10 years.
  6. Phelps
    Got going here around 4 am. This was at 7. Maybe 8” where I am on Beech Nice to have winter return. 44 and midnight down to 23 right now. https://imgur.com/a/6sVttQe
  7. Phelps
    So do we commend the GFS for being on this from the beginning or ridicule it for putting out 2 foot snow totals? I guess that's a question for tomorrow afternoon!
  8. Phelps
    So does the GFS think it's going to snow 3"/hr for 6 straight hours lol? (in some places)
  9. Phelps
    Just looking at how this plays out on the hi-res models it looks like all this snow has to fall in about 4 hours. I guess that's the entire point with a system like this. I may need to set an alarm to catch the most impressive rates.
  10. Phelps
    6z gfs casually showing 18’ up and down the TN border…
  11. Phelps
    I don't disagree but the resorts (I can only speak for App, Sugar and Beech) have made remarkable investments in snowmaking capabilities in recent years. It's to the point that they can basically cover the main slopes in a day. It's been one of the warmest decembers ever, no natural snow, it hasn't been below freezing for a week, and the resorts are still open. (barely, i assume) Next week should be great for snowmaking. But it is crazy to think that at the end of the day they are in the hands of mother nature. I would imagine they make most of their money on about 12 weekends and to lose one to warm and rain has to be painful.
  12. Phelps
    Just glancing at the GFS over the last few days there have been several runs that don't bring the humidity back at all for the next couple of weeks. LFG.
  13. Phelps
    We're about to transition from whining about lack of cold, to whining about lack of warmth. (at least until the sticky icky gets here)
  14. Phelps
    LOL. Sugar with 25 more inches than Beech. Looks like Gunther's ruler could be acting up again. Might want to get that thing checked out!
  15. Phelps
    I don't mean to downplay the threat of a significant ice storm but how long is this thing going to last? 12 hours? I was in Raleigh for the early 2000s ice storm and it just would not stop raining with temps in the mid 20s. Again, I do think a high impact ice event is in the making but some of these apocalyptic maps need to be taken with a grain of salt.
  16. Phelps
    Looks like we ended up at the lower end of the range. Couple inches at the house. Probably more at the top. I am certainly not complaining though. There is soooo much snow up here right now. It’s been a fantastic winter for us. And I’ll just say it’s been great for my sanity not to have to hope for snow in Charlotte. It hasn’t really snowed there since January 2018 and honestly feels like it might never snow there again. (I realize it will but boy it’s been bleak)
  17. Phelps
    Yeah 6-8 seems about right. Maybe closer to 6 where I am. It was still going to some degree when I left this afternoon. I was surprised. I also got stuck on the BMP trying to leave as they had to shut it down for 90 minutes to clean up a bad wreck. It was pretty dicey out there today. Thankfully it was a Tuesday.
  18. Phelps
    4-5 inches of snow then .25”(?) of rain, and now it’s in the teens. Things are crunchy up here this morning. If we’re going to get to Ray’s 5-10 it better start snowing harder soon
  19. Phelps
    Appreciate the thoughts on Watauga. I'll be there to see whatever falls.
  20. Phelps
    Are the northern counties not in a good spot for this setup? RNK seems to be talking only a few inches for Beech and the GSP map looks to agree.
  21. Phelps
    Yep. Snow Saturday overnnight isn't as exciting when you wake up Sunday to rain. But a few days of nwf could be nice.
  22. Phelps
    Weekend is looking like it might be sloppy. Hopefully the Euro has the idea. But even if it doesn't work out Saturday and Sunday the NWF looks pretty good.
  23. Phelps
    From this morning up on top of Beech. Now 33 degrees (huh?) at the house (4500’)
  24. Phelps
    Yeah where the heck did that come from? A little frustrating as I was up there for 4 days to celebrate New Years and it never got below freezing. Then as I'm packing up it starts to snow unexpectedly. Certainly eyeing a quick return trip Thursday evening. Side note; I know many on this forum are well aware but man it was bustling up in the high country. I think you had almost everything booked up with folks on vacation then on top of that a lot of day trippers had the mountains on their minds as they heard about the White Christmas. The ski resort looked like chaos. I'm happy for the local businesses but also won't mind seeing things get back to "normal".
  25. Phelps
    Not to skip over today's event but any chance the Wednesday storm could be snow for the highest elevations? We've got a gulf low tracking up the coast and some cold air nearby. Just glancing at the global though and it doesn't look cold enough. Can't tell how close we are to something good.
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